Conference Preview - ACC

The ACC seems to be a bit of a two horse race this year. I'm picking Florida State vs Virginia Tech in the conference championship and here's why.

Florida State is the clear favorite to win the Atlantic Division. They return 16 starters, 8 on offense and 8 on defense. Christian Ponder will be tough to replace, but E.J. Manuel saw a lot of playing time last year and is very talented. He completed 69.9% of his passes for 861 yards with 4 touchdown and 4 interceptions. He can improve, and I think he is set to have a great junior year. Florida State also returns it three leading rushes from last year - Chris Thompson, Ty Jones, and Jermaine Thomas. The fourth and fifth leading rushers last year were Ponder and Manuel. FSU also returns virtually all of their receiving corps from last year as well. The only offensive starters being replaced are Ponder at QB, and two linemen.

On defense they're replacing two linebackers and one defensive end, but are returning 3 of their top 4 tacklers, including play maker Greg Reid. Reid broke up 14 passes, had 3 interceptions, and was a great returner as well. He averaged 23.9 yards per kick return, 10.1 per punt return, and took one punt back for a touchdown. The kicker (Dustin Hopkins) and punter (Shawn Powell) are also returning, and they were both solid last year. Hopkins made all 53 PATs and was 22-28 on field goals with a long of 55. Powell averaged 39.0 net yards per punt and had 16 of his 50 downed inside the 20.

The conference schedule is also favorable for Florida State. From the Coastal Division, they play Virginia, Miami, and at Duke. Their other road conference games are Clemson, Wake Forest, and Boston College. The game to keep an eye on there is Florida State at Clemson. If Florida State wins that game, I think they'll take the Atlantic Division because I don't see them losing any other conference games. Even if they slip up somewhere, they'd still have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Clemson.

Virginia Tech is the favorite for the Coastal Division, but for a bit of a different reason. They only return 12 starters, 7 on offense and 5 on defense, and they need to replace QB Tyrod Taylor. This year's starter, Logan Thomas, was just 12-26 passing last year for 107 yards. VT will also be replacing their three of their top four rushers (which includes Taylor). They have 4 returning starters on the offensive line, so that should help things as well as an experienced receiving corps. The kicker and punter will also need to be replaced.

Virginia Tech has two things going for them: an easy schedule (especially in September) and trouble at Miami. They start out with games against Appalachian St, at East Carolina, Arkansas St, and at Marshall. The cross-division games they play are Clemson, Boston College, and at Wake Forest. Their other road games are at Duke, at Georgia Tech, and at Virginia. The toughest games will likely be back to back in October when they play Clemson and Miami, both at home. If they start 6-0, they'll probably finish 12-0.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see two undefeated teams in the ACC championship. Virginia Tech could be 12-0 but I think they will be very exposed by Florida State in the conference championship and Florida State will win by double digits to take the conference title. There could be a national championship berth on the line in this game, too.

I could really see Florida State going 12-0 in the regular season this year. They have all the pieces and so much talent coming back. Their biggest obstacles of getting to the national championship will be at home against Oklahoma on September 17 and on the road at Florida on November 26. Florida is in a state of transition, but Oklahoma is at the top of many preseason polls. September 17 will be a revenge game for Florida State, after they got blown out at Oklahoma last year 47-17. Even with a loss against Oklahoma, they could still get to the national championship because it is so early in the season. I'm picking Florida State to go 11-1 with a loss somewhere along the way, possibly against Oklahoma, and then go on to win the ACC championship.

EDIT: Well, I changed my mind about Florida State. I'm picking them to beat Oklahoma and go 12-0.