12-10 last week, 104-23 overall.
California at #9 Oregon
#5 Boise State at Fresno State
#3 Oklahoma vs #11 Texas
Maryland at #13 Georgia Tech
Connecticut at #16 West Virginia
Kentucky at #18 South Carolina
#23 Florida State at Wake Forest
#19 Illinois at Indiana
Boston College at #8 Clemson
#17 Florida at #1 LSU
Kansas at #6 Oklahoma State
Missouri at #20 Kansas State
Miami at #21 Virginia Tech
#22 Arizona State at Utah
Arizona at Oregon State
Vanderbilt at #2 Alabama
#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas
#12 Michigan at Northwestern
#24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech
Iowa State at #25 Baylor
Colorado at #7 Stanford
Ohio State at #14 Nebraska
Washington State at UCLA
Games to watch:
10:00 - #3 Oklahoma vs #11 Texas (ABC)
1:30 - #17 Florida at #1 LSU (CBS)
1:30 - #22 Arizona State at Utah (ROOT)
1:30 - Pittsburgh at Rutgers (ESPNU)
5:00 - #15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas (ESPN)
5:00 - #12 Michigan at Northwestern (BTN)
5:00 - #24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech (FX)
5:00 - Iowa State at #25 Baylor (ROOT)
8:30 - Washington State at UCLA (ROOT)
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Washington at Utah Preview
This week Utah plays their first home Pac-12 game. Washington leads the all-time series, but every game has been at Washington and they haven't played since 1979. Utah is coming off a bye week and Whittingham is 6-0 after regular season byes. Utah has won the last 10 after regular season byes, going back to 2002.
It's hard to really gauge where Washington is. Their defense has given up a ton of yards through the air, but they've also played Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and Cal who all love to throw the ball. In fact, Eastern Washington and Hawaii don't do much besides throw the ball. Utah has struggled at times to throw the ball, so they'll want to get that going early to spread out the Washington defense. Their rush defense is ranked 48th, giving up 125.8 YPG, despite playing Eastern Washington and Hawaii, who don't really run the ball. They gave up 309 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns to the 8th ranked rush offense, Nebraska.
Utah should be able to run the ball with John White, who is ranked 9th in rushing (126.7 YPG). He also has 5 rushing touchdowns through just 3 games. In order to make the run game more effective, QB Jordan Wynn will have to spread the ball around to get the UW defense to spread out over the field. He'll also need to throw the ball downfield. He has shown sparks of a great QB at times and has thrown the ball downfield, he'll just need to continue to improve. I think he'll be quite a bit improved after the week off. The good thing about Wynn is that he has played mostly mistake free, only throwing 1 interception which was on a tipped pass. There have been a couple other passes that could have been intercepted, though. Still, he's looking like a smart, mature quarterback who just needs his shoulder to get stronger.
Utah has the 13th ranked rush defense, allowing just 79.33 yards per game on the ground. In their last game, they held BYU to 11 rushing yards, had 2 sacks, and forced 7 turnovers. Of course, they won't be able to have that same performance against UW RB Chris Polk and QB Keith Price, but they should be able to hold their own against a pretty good offense. They've let up a lot of yards through the air, partly because of BYU, but they rank 33rd in pass efficiency defense (114.7 QB rating). Keith Price ranks 9 in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating), so something's got to give. I think he'll throw the ball well on Utah at first, but Utah will eventually slow the run and be able to get after Price to get him out of his element.
I expect there to be quite a few points scored in this game. For Utah to win, they'll need to play solid defensively and slow down Polk, then get after Price. For Washington to win, they'll need to spread the ball around and score a lot of points. If this gets high scoring, Utah could be in trouble, especially if Washington's defense forces a couple interceptions.
My pick is Utah 28, Washington 24.
It's hard to really gauge where Washington is. Their defense has given up a ton of yards through the air, but they've also played Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and Cal who all love to throw the ball. In fact, Eastern Washington and Hawaii don't do much besides throw the ball. Utah has struggled at times to throw the ball, so they'll want to get that going early to spread out the Washington defense. Their rush defense is ranked 48th, giving up 125.8 YPG, despite playing Eastern Washington and Hawaii, who don't really run the ball. They gave up 309 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns to the 8th ranked rush offense, Nebraska.
Utah should be able to run the ball with John White, who is ranked 9th in rushing (126.7 YPG). He also has 5 rushing touchdowns through just 3 games. In order to make the run game more effective, QB Jordan Wynn will have to spread the ball around to get the UW defense to spread out over the field. He'll also need to throw the ball downfield. He has shown sparks of a great QB at times and has thrown the ball downfield, he'll just need to continue to improve. I think he'll be quite a bit improved after the week off. The good thing about Wynn is that he has played mostly mistake free, only throwing 1 interception which was on a tipped pass. There have been a couple other passes that could have been intercepted, though. Still, he's looking like a smart, mature quarterback who just needs his shoulder to get stronger.
Utah has the 13th ranked rush defense, allowing just 79.33 yards per game on the ground. In their last game, they held BYU to 11 rushing yards, had 2 sacks, and forced 7 turnovers. Of course, they won't be able to have that same performance against UW RB Chris Polk and QB Keith Price, but they should be able to hold their own against a pretty good offense. They've let up a lot of yards through the air, partly because of BYU, but they rank 33rd in pass efficiency defense (114.7 QB rating). Keith Price ranks 9 in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating), so something's got to give. I think he'll throw the ball well on Utah at first, but Utah will eventually slow the run and be able to get after Price to get him out of his element.
I expect there to be quite a few points scored in this game. For Utah to win, they'll need to play solid defensively and slow down Polk, then get after Price. For Washington to win, they'll need to spread the ball around and score a lot of points. If this gets high scoring, Utah could be in trouble, especially if Washington's defense forces a couple interceptions.
My pick is Utah 28, Washington 24.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Week 5 (10/1) Picks
Last week I was 21-2, bringing the total to 92-13. I got the game of the week, so I'm 3-1 there. However, it didn't end up being a shootout like I thought it would. Some of the good were picking Oregon to cruise over Arizona, Burfict taking down Barkley in ASU's upset win, and Michigan beating San Diego State. Some of the bad were picking FSU to shut down Clemson's offense, Oregon State finally getting a win, and Alabama having a close game with Arkansas.
#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh - USF gives Pitt their third straight loss.
#14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas - Arkansas comes out slowly after the blowout loss to Alabama, but so does TAMU after the tough loss to Oklahoma State. But they both find their stride and Arkansas has the last chance to score.
Minnesota at #19 Michigan - Michigan has only lost to Minnesota 3 times since 1968.
Northwestern at #24 Illinois - Persa's return gives Northwestern a boost.
Kentucky at #1 LSU - Kentucky won't get into double digits here.
Nevada at #4 Boise State - BSU gets revenge for last year's weird overtime loss.
Auburn at #10 South Carolina - Auburn doesn't play enough defense to win on the road here.
#15 Baylor at Kansas State - Another big day for Griffin as Big 12 play starts.
SMU at #20 TCU - SMU's not bad, and their offense will give TCU fits in the first half.
#21 Georgia Tech at NC State - GT will rack up over 500 yards of offense against a bad NC State team.
Bowling Green at #22 West Virginia - Easy game for WVU as they try to get over the loss to LSU.
Arizona at USC - Arizona's offensive line gets ripped apart again and they're 1-4.
Michigan State at Ohio State - Two struggling teams, but I'm going with the home team on this one.
Washington State at Colorado - WSU was exposed on the road last week, and Boulder won't be much easier.
#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech - Lane Stadium gives VT the win here.
Ball State at #2 Oklahoma - Ball State is 3-1, but they haven't played anybody.
#17 Texas at Iowa State - Iowa State moves to 4-0 for the first time since 2000.
Washington at Utah - Utah's defense win it at home.
#3 Alabama at #12 Florida - It won't be easy, but Bama comes out of The Swamp with a win.
#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin - Camp Randall Stadium at night is too much for Nebraska.
UCLA at #6 Stanford - Andrew Luck is too good to even consider a home loss here.
Oregon State at #25 Arizona State - Oregon State falls to 0-4 for the first time since 1996.
#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh - USF gives Pitt their third straight loss.
#14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas - Arkansas comes out slowly after the blowout loss to Alabama, but so does TAMU after the tough loss to Oklahoma State. But they both find their stride and Arkansas has the last chance to score.
Minnesota at #19 Michigan - Michigan has only lost to Minnesota 3 times since 1968.
Northwestern at #24 Illinois - Persa's return gives Northwestern a boost.
Kentucky at #1 LSU - Kentucky won't get into double digits here.
Nevada at #4 Boise State - BSU gets revenge for last year's weird overtime loss.
Auburn at #10 South Carolina - Auburn doesn't play enough defense to win on the road here.
#15 Baylor at Kansas State - Another big day for Griffin as Big 12 play starts.
SMU at #20 TCU - SMU's not bad, and their offense will give TCU fits in the first half.
#21 Georgia Tech at NC State - GT will rack up over 500 yards of offense against a bad NC State team.
Bowling Green at #22 West Virginia - Easy game for WVU as they try to get over the loss to LSU.
Arizona at USC - Arizona's offensive line gets ripped apart again and they're 1-4.
Michigan State at Ohio State - Two struggling teams, but I'm going with the home team on this one.
Washington State at Colorado - WSU was exposed on the road last week, and Boulder won't be much easier.
#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech - Lane Stadium gives VT the win here.
Ball State at #2 Oklahoma - Ball State is 3-1, but they haven't played anybody.
#17 Texas at Iowa State - Iowa State moves to 4-0 for the first time since 2000.
Washington at Utah - Utah's defense win it at home.
#3 Alabama at #12 Florida - It won't be easy, but Bama comes out of The Swamp with a win.
#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin - Camp Randall Stadium at night is too much for Nebraska.
UCLA at #6 Stanford - Andrew Luck is too good to even consider a home loss here.
Oregon State at #25 Arizona State - Oregon State falls to 0-4 for the first time since 1996.
Game of the Week - #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin
Not only is this the first Big Ten conference game for #8 Nebraska, it's also a big cross-division matchup with two top ten teams as they travel to #7 Wisconsin. Both teams are 4-0 and they figure to be the only two really good teams in the conference. Nebraska travels to Penn State and #19 Michigan in mid-November and Wisconsin finishes the season at #24 Illinois and vs Penn State. Both teams also play Michigan State and Ohio State, but those teams are both looking to underachieve and they play each other this week as well. Iowa could end up being a contender at the end of the season. But right now, it looks like this will be preview of the first Big Ten championship.
For Nebraska to win this game, they're probably going to need to throw the ball. They do have the 8th ranked rushing offense (272.5 YPG) but their passing offense is ranked 106th (166.5 YPG). They did rush for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington, but Washington doesn't have a great defense like Wisconsin does. Wisconsin only allows 2.8 yards per carry, while Nebraska averages 6.0 yards per carry. Something's got to give there, and whoever wins that battle could end up winning this game.
Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense (532.3 YPG) and 7th in total defense (256.5 YPG). They're 6th in scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and 3rd in scoring defense (8.5 PPG). So there aren't many teams that have been better overall than Wisconsin. They haven't played much competition, though. UNLV is terrible, Oregon State has been awful, Northern Illinois is decent for a MAC team, and South Dakota is an FCS team.
An advantage Nebraska does have is in the return game. RB Ameer Abdullah is 2nd in kickoff returns, averaging 42.5 yards on 8 returns and has 1 touchdown. He's also a good punt returner, but Wisconsin ranks 17th in net punting, so he may not be as big of a factor there.
Night games at Camp Randall Stadium are always tough. The last Wisconsin home loss was to 6-0 Iowa in 2009, and the last home loss at night was to 6-0 Penn State in 2008. The stadium gets loud and rowdy and I have a feeling this could get ugly in the fourth quarter. But if Wisconsin does pull away, watch Abdullah because he'll have some chances for big kickoff returns. I think Wisconsin is just too good and is going to win this game big.
My pick is Wisconsin 41, Nebraska 20.
For Nebraska to win this game, they're probably going to need to throw the ball. They do have the 8th ranked rushing offense (272.5 YPG) but their passing offense is ranked 106th (166.5 YPG). They did rush for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington, but Washington doesn't have a great defense like Wisconsin does. Wisconsin only allows 2.8 yards per carry, while Nebraska averages 6.0 yards per carry. Something's got to give there, and whoever wins that battle could end up winning this game.
Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense (532.3 YPG) and 7th in total defense (256.5 YPG). They're 6th in scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and 3rd in scoring defense (8.5 PPG). So there aren't many teams that have been better overall than Wisconsin. They haven't played much competition, though. UNLV is terrible, Oregon State has been awful, Northern Illinois is decent for a MAC team, and South Dakota is an FCS team.
An advantage Nebraska does have is in the return game. RB Ameer Abdullah is 2nd in kickoff returns, averaging 42.5 yards on 8 returns and has 1 touchdown. He's also a good punt returner, but Wisconsin ranks 17th in net punting, so he may not be as big of a factor there.
Night games at Camp Randall Stadium are always tough. The last Wisconsin home loss was to 6-0 Iowa in 2009, and the last home loss at night was to 6-0 Penn State in 2008. The stadium gets loud and rowdy and I have a feeling this could get ugly in the fourth quarter. But if Wisconsin does pull away, watch Abdullah because he'll have some chances for big kickoff returns. I think Wisconsin is just too good and is going to win this game big.
My pick is Wisconsin 41, Nebraska 20.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Week 5 (10/1) Preview
There are a few big cross-divisional games this week, and a big non-conference game. But I think the game of the week is going to be another 7/8 matchup, #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin. I'll get into more detail on that and Washington at Utah later.
Thursday night has #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh. Pitt's coming off two close, tough losses at Iowa and vs Notre Dame. The conference opener will put the winner in pretty good shape for the conference race, and both teams play West Virginia late in the year. South Florida has been playing really well on offense, and racked up 745 yards and 70 points against Florida A&M. USF QB B.J. Daniels has completed 66.1% of his passes for 1,071 yards and thrown 8 TDs to 1 INT. Pittsburgh has struggled a lot on defense against the pass, ranking 115th allowing 306.3 yards per game, including 399 against Iowa who scored the final 21 points (all passing TDs) in the final 10 minutes to steal the game. Daniels might have a big day and Pitt could drop 3 in a row for the first time since 2007, which is also the last time they didn't go to a bowl game.
#3 Alabama likely gets their last big test before their November 5 date at home with #1 LSU. This week they play at #12 Florida, who has been looking pretty good so far this year. Both teams are 4-0 and riding 5 game win streaks. This game features two great defenses. Alabama is ranked in the top 3 in the major defensive categories: rushing - 3rd (45.8 YPG), passing - 3rd (138.3 YPG), pass efficiency - 2nd (74.7 QB rating), total - 2nd (184 YPG), and scoring - 2nd (8 PPG). Alabama has played tougher competition, and Florida's stats are just a little worse. They rank 5th in rush defense (56.5 YPG), 20th in pass defense (175.3 YPG), pass efficiency defense (95.3 QB rating), 5th in total defense (231.8 YPG), and 4th in scoring defense (9 PPG). Alabama might be able to exploit the Florida pass defense, as A.J. McCarron has played very well since the opener against Kent State. In the last 3 games, he's 49/72 (68%) for 553 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. In the last 3 games, Alabama has not turned the ball over and has 7 takeaways. They've been very impressive the last few games and rank 10th in punt returns and 31st in kick returns. Florida is 102nd in net punting, so we might see Marquis Maze returning another punt for a touchdown. I think this game comes down to whoever plays better defense and who is more opportunistic with field position and turnovers. It won't be easy for Alabama, playing in The Swamp late on a Saturday night, but I think they're the best team in the country and they can do it.
#13 Clemson is coming off two big home wins over Auburn and Florida State, and this week they travel to #11 Virginia Tech for their first road game of the season. Clemson has been tested quite a bit more, especially defensively. They did struggle a little bit with Troy and Wofford, but played well against Auburn and Florida State. They've played well on offense, averaging 502.8 yards per game which is 13th in the nation. QB Tajh Boyd is ranked 11th in pass efficiency (173.8 QB rating) and he ripped apart the tough Florida State defense. Virginia Tech does have a great defense, ranking 2nd in rush defense (43 YPG), 6th in pass efficiency defense (88.6 YPG), 4th in total offense (231.3 YPG), and 6th in scoring defense (10 PPG). They have let up some yards through the air, though, ranking 32nd in pass defense (188.3 YPG). The best QB VT has faced so far is East Carolina's Dominique Davis, who they held to 127 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Boyd is quite a bit better than Davis, and is a much better runner. VT also forced 5 sacks in that game, and they are tied for 10th in sacks, averaging 3.5 per game. Clemson ranks 80th in sacks allowed, allowing 2.3 per game. That could be an area where Clemson will struggle, protecting Boyd. But if he can avoid the pass rush and either scramble or get the ball to WR Sammy Watkins quickly, they might have a chance to knock off Virginia Tech in the night game at Lane Stadium, which is always a tough environment.
The Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium features two teams coming off tough losses to top-5 teams, #14 Texas A&M and #18 Arkansas. Texas A&M blew a 20-3 halftime lead against #5 Oklahoma State to lose 30-29. Arkansas gave a couple of defensive and special teams touchdowns late in the second quarter and early in the third on the way to a 38-14 loss at #3 Alabama. There should be a lot of passing in this game. TAMU throws for 310.7 YPG (19th) and Arkansas throws for 312.3 YPG (18th). Both teams play decent on defense, allowing 17 and 19 points per game. Texas A&M has struggled more against the pass, but they've also only played 3 games and 1 of those was against Oklahoma State and their QB Brandon Weeden. This game will probably be a lot of back and forth and could come down to whoever has the last chance to score.
Some other quick hits this week:
Utah has a home game this week, so I won't get to watch much football besides the morning games and the beginning of the afternoon games. But here are the games I want to watch or would want to watch if I could:
Thursday 6:00 - #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 6:00 - Utah State at BYU (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - #14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - Minnesota at #19 Michigan (BTN)
10:00 - Northwestern at #24 Illinois (ESPN2, ESPN3)
10:00 - Toledo at Temple (ESPN3)
1:30 - Auburn at #10 South Carolina (CBS)
1:30 - #15 Baylor at Kansas State (ABC/ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - Arizona at USC (ROOT)
1:40 - Washington State at Colorado (FCS Pacific)
4:00 - #13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech (ESPN2, ESPN3)
5:00 - Washington at Utah (ROOT)
6:00 - #3 Alabama at #12 Florida (CBS)
6:00 - #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (ABC)
8:30 - UCLA at #6 Stanford (ROOT)
Thursday night has #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh. Pitt's coming off two close, tough losses at Iowa and vs Notre Dame. The conference opener will put the winner in pretty good shape for the conference race, and both teams play West Virginia late in the year. South Florida has been playing really well on offense, and racked up 745 yards and 70 points against Florida A&M. USF QB B.J. Daniels has completed 66.1% of his passes for 1,071 yards and thrown 8 TDs to 1 INT. Pittsburgh has struggled a lot on defense against the pass, ranking 115th allowing 306.3 yards per game, including 399 against Iowa who scored the final 21 points (all passing TDs) in the final 10 minutes to steal the game. Daniels might have a big day and Pitt could drop 3 in a row for the first time since 2007, which is also the last time they didn't go to a bowl game.
#3 Alabama likely gets their last big test before their November 5 date at home with #1 LSU. This week they play at #12 Florida, who has been looking pretty good so far this year. Both teams are 4-0 and riding 5 game win streaks. This game features two great defenses. Alabama is ranked in the top 3 in the major defensive categories: rushing - 3rd (45.8 YPG), passing - 3rd (138.3 YPG), pass efficiency - 2nd (74.7 QB rating), total - 2nd (184 YPG), and scoring - 2nd (8 PPG). Alabama has played tougher competition, and Florida's stats are just a little worse. They rank 5th in rush defense (56.5 YPG), 20th in pass defense (175.3 YPG), pass efficiency defense (95.3 QB rating), 5th in total defense (231.8 YPG), and 4th in scoring defense (9 PPG). Alabama might be able to exploit the Florida pass defense, as A.J. McCarron has played very well since the opener against Kent State. In the last 3 games, he's 49/72 (68%) for 553 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. In the last 3 games, Alabama has not turned the ball over and has 7 takeaways. They've been very impressive the last few games and rank 10th in punt returns and 31st in kick returns. Florida is 102nd in net punting, so we might see Marquis Maze returning another punt for a touchdown. I think this game comes down to whoever plays better defense and who is more opportunistic with field position and turnovers. It won't be easy for Alabama, playing in The Swamp late on a Saturday night, but I think they're the best team in the country and they can do it.
#13 Clemson is coming off two big home wins over Auburn and Florida State, and this week they travel to #11 Virginia Tech for their first road game of the season. Clemson has been tested quite a bit more, especially defensively. They did struggle a little bit with Troy and Wofford, but played well against Auburn and Florida State. They've played well on offense, averaging 502.8 yards per game which is 13th in the nation. QB Tajh Boyd is ranked 11th in pass efficiency (173.8 QB rating) and he ripped apart the tough Florida State defense. Virginia Tech does have a great defense, ranking 2nd in rush defense (43 YPG), 6th in pass efficiency defense (88.6 YPG), 4th in total offense (231.3 YPG), and 6th in scoring defense (10 PPG). They have let up some yards through the air, though, ranking 32nd in pass defense (188.3 YPG). The best QB VT has faced so far is East Carolina's Dominique Davis, who they held to 127 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Boyd is quite a bit better than Davis, and is a much better runner. VT also forced 5 sacks in that game, and they are tied for 10th in sacks, averaging 3.5 per game. Clemson ranks 80th in sacks allowed, allowing 2.3 per game. That could be an area where Clemson will struggle, protecting Boyd. But if he can avoid the pass rush and either scramble or get the ball to WR Sammy Watkins quickly, they might have a chance to knock off Virginia Tech in the night game at Lane Stadium, which is always a tough environment.
The Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium features two teams coming off tough losses to top-5 teams, #14 Texas A&M and #18 Arkansas. Texas A&M blew a 20-3 halftime lead against #5 Oklahoma State to lose 30-29. Arkansas gave a couple of defensive and special teams touchdowns late in the second quarter and early in the third on the way to a 38-14 loss at #3 Alabama. There should be a lot of passing in this game. TAMU throws for 310.7 YPG (19th) and Arkansas throws for 312.3 YPG (18th). Both teams play decent on defense, allowing 17 and 19 points per game. Texas A&M has struggled more against the pass, but they've also only played 3 games and 1 of those was against Oklahoma State and their QB Brandon Weeden. This game will probably be a lot of back and forth and could come down to whoever has the last chance to score.
Some other quick hits this week:
- Northwestern QB Dan Persa is expected to play for the first time this year as they travel to #24 Illinois.
- #19 Michigan plays their conference opener against Minnesota. They're just 6-18 in the conference over the last 3 years.
- Utah State has a true freshman QB and is 1-2 but should've been 3-0 with wins over Auburn and Colorado State. They play at struggling BYU on Friday night.
- Mississippi State plays at Georgia where they're 2-11 and haven't won since 1956. Each team needs a win.
- Toledo beat Syracuse (but it's recorded as a loss), and had a chance to beat Ohio State in the shoe. Temple blew out Maryland and had a chance to win vs Penn State. This week could be a preview of the MAC championship.
- Auburn forced four straight turnovers to end the game against #10 South Carolina last year. Can they pull off they upset this week or do they start a 4-game losing streak?
- Kansas State is 3-0 and coming off a big win over Miami. They'll have their hands full against Baylor QB Robert Griffin III.
- Arizona needs a win at The Coliseum to save their Pac-12 South hopes and avoid a 1-4 start.
- #17 Texas needs to avoid a trap game at Iowa State, as they have #1 Oklahoma and #5 Oklahoma State coming up.
Utah has a home game this week, so I won't get to watch much football besides the morning games and the beginning of the afternoon games. But here are the games I want to watch or would want to watch if I could:
Thursday 6:00 - #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 6:00 - Utah State at BYU (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - #14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - Minnesota at #19 Michigan (BTN)
10:00 - Northwestern at #24 Illinois (ESPN2, ESPN3)
10:00 - Toledo at Temple (ESPN3)
1:30 - Auburn at #10 South Carolina (CBS)
1:30 - #15 Baylor at Kansas State (ABC/ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - Arizona at USC (ROOT)
1:40 - Washington State at Colorado (FCS Pacific)
4:00 - #13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech (ESPN2, ESPN3)
5:00 - Washington at Utah (ROOT)
6:00 - #3 Alabama at #12 Florida (CBS)
6:00 - #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (ABC)
8:30 - UCLA at #6 Stanford (ROOT)
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 4 (9/24) Thoughts
It looks like Temple might be pretty good this year. They lost at Penn State 14-10 and had chances to win at the end of the game. They blew out their opponents in their other three games, including a road game at Maryland in which they were leading 31-0 at halftime. They play at home against Toledo on Saturday and that should be a telling game for both teams. Toledo should have won their game against Syracuse but the replay booth botched a PAT call which changed the outcome of the game.
Alabama is very good. I thought they'd struggle a bit with Arkansas but they didn't really struggle much and won on all sides of the ball. They intercepted two passes, returning one for a touchdown. They also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown. A.J. McCarron threw 2 touchdown passes and completed 75% of his passes. Trent Richardson carried the ball 17 times and averaged 7.4 yards per carry. They had no turnovers. They're firing on all cylinders right now and have a big matchup at Florida this week. If they win this week, they should breeze through the next 3 before a huge game at home against LSU on November 5. I think they'll be 8-0 going into that game.
Clemson surprised me with a big win over Florida State. I really thought FSU's defense was great and that Clemson would struggle to move the ball. Clemson ended up with 455 yards of offense, including 344 through the air. Clemson WR Sammy Watkins is a great player. He caught a big touchdown pass to give Clemson their first lead at 7-3 in the first quarter. He also had a big 62 yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter right after FSU had just cut the lead to 28-23. QBs for both teams played and had almost identical stats. FSU's Trickett completed 24/38 for 336 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT while Clemson's Boyd completed 23/37 for 344 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. It didn't help that FSU had 11 penalties for 124 yards, and that made a big difference. Both teams struggle to run the ball, averaging around 2 yards per carry. Now Clemson has a big edge in what is shaping up to be a very weak ACC Atlantic division outside of FSU and Clemson.
Oklahoma State was sure a fun game to watch. Texas A&M was surprising jumping out to a 20-3 halftime lead. But OSU head coach Mike Gundy was very calm going into the locker room, saying they needed to just settle down and play their game. They did just that and scored 27 unanswered points on their way to a 30-29 win. OSU QB Brandon Weeden was remarkable, completing 47 of 60 passes for 438 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has such great leadership and poise on the field. Now OSU is in the driver's seat with Oklahoma and that will be a big matchup on December 2 in Stillwater.
LSU keeps winning big games. They were outgained by West Virginia 533-366 but won 47-21. They did force 4 turnovers and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. LSU's worst starting field position was their own 24 yard line, while West Virginia's best was their own 29. LSU started near midfield almost every time they had the ball, and once started on West Virginia's 1 yard line after an interception. Field position can make a huge difference in games, and LSU's defense and special teams play a huge part in that. They may not put up big numbers on offense, but they really do win the game with defense and special teams.
LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama are all looking more and more impressive. The LSU at Alabama game on November 5th is a huge game and the winner will be in the national championship, and probably win.
Alabama is very good. I thought they'd struggle a bit with Arkansas but they didn't really struggle much and won on all sides of the ball. They intercepted two passes, returning one for a touchdown. They also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown. A.J. McCarron threw 2 touchdown passes and completed 75% of his passes. Trent Richardson carried the ball 17 times and averaged 7.4 yards per carry. They had no turnovers. They're firing on all cylinders right now and have a big matchup at Florida this week. If they win this week, they should breeze through the next 3 before a huge game at home against LSU on November 5. I think they'll be 8-0 going into that game.
Clemson surprised me with a big win over Florida State. I really thought FSU's defense was great and that Clemson would struggle to move the ball. Clemson ended up with 455 yards of offense, including 344 through the air. Clemson WR Sammy Watkins is a great player. He caught a big touchdown pass to give Clemson their first lead at 7-3 in the first quarter. He also had a big 62 yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter right after FSU had just cut the lead to 28-23. QBs for both teams played and had almost identical stats. FSU's Trickett completed 24/38 for 336 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT while Clemson's Boyd completed 23/37 for 344 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. It didn't help that FSU had 11 penalties for 124 yards, and that made a big difference. Both teams struggle to run the ball, averaging around 2 yards per carry. Now Clemson has a big edge in what is shaping up to be a very weak ACC Atlantic division outside of FSU and Clemson.
Oklahoma State was sure a fun game to watch. Texas A&M was surprising jumping out to a 20-3 halftime lead. But OSU head coach Mike Gundy was very calm going into the locker room, saying they needed to just settle down and play their game. They did just that and scored 27 unanswered points on their way to a 30-29 win. OSU QB Brandon Weeden was remarkable, completing 47 of 60 passes for 438 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has such great leadership and poise on the field. Now OSU is in the driver's seat with Oklahoma and that will be a big matchup on December 2 in Stillwater.
LSU keeps winning big games. They were outgained by West Virginia 533-366 but won 47-21. They did force 4 turnovers and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. LSU's worst starting field position was their own 24 yard line, while West Virginia's best was their own 29. LSU started near midfield almost every time they had the ball, and once started on West Virginia's 1 yard line after an interception. Field position can make a huge difference in games, and LSU's defense and special teams play a huge part in that. They may not put up big numbers on offense, but they really do win the game with defense and special teams.
LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama are all looking more and more impressive. The LSU at Alabama game on November 5th is a huge game and the winner will be in the national championship, and probably win.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Week 4 (9/24) Helmet Stickers
This season I've stayed away from giving helmet stickers to performances against FCS opponents. That holds true for this week, but I need to mention Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz. Against UC Davis, he completed 30/40 passes for 424 yards and 7 touchdowns. And those stats all came in just the first half. Simple amazing, even if it was against UC Davis.
Robert Griffin III 2 (QB, Baylor) - vs Rice. 29/33, 338 yards, 5 TDs. 6 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD. Griffin has just been amazing this year. He has the highest QB rating in the nation at 236.2, and has thrown 13 touchdowns. He has only thrown 12 incompletions. We'll see how he holds up as he begins Big 12 play next week.
LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 23 rushes, 288 yards, 2 TDs. James now leads the nation in rushing with 613 yards and has an amazing 9.4 yards per carry with 7 touchdowns. With two straight 200+ yard performances, he's back in the Heisman mix.
Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - at Maryland. 32 carries, 149 yards, 5 TDs. Pierce set a school record with his 5 touchdowns as Temple led 31-0 and thrashed Maryland 38-7. Pierce leads the nation with 12 rushing TDs through 4 games.
Kellen Moore 2 (QB, Boise State) - at Toledo. 23/29, 279 yards, 4 TDs. Moore ranks third in the nation in pass efficiency (192.6 QB rating), and has thrown 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He tossed 4 TDs against a Toledo team that I thought was pretty good.
T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - at Cincinnati. 7 catches, 176 yards, 2 TDs. Graham caught TD passes of 87 and 49 and was the only NC State player to score a touchdown. He has over 100 yards receiving in each of the last 3 games.
Keith Price (QB, Washington) - vs California. 19/25, 292 yards, 3 TDs. 7 rushes, 21 yards. Price ranks 9th in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating) and ties for most touchdowns with 14. He has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in each of his first 4 games.
Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - at Kentucky. 10 carries, 157 yards, 2 TDs. Demps has touchdown runs of 20 and 84 yards. He has been pretty hit and miss this season, but averaged 15.7 yards per carry this week in a big win on the road.
Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - at Ole Miss. 2 INTs, 26 yards. 4 tackles (4 solo), 1 pass defended. The nation's leader in interceptions got two more at important times of this game. Just after Ole Miss scored to cut it to 17-7 in the first half, they recovered an onside kick. On 2nd and 3rd down of the ensuing drive, Rambo had a pass breakup and interception. He had another interception in the final minutes as Ole Miss was driving to seal the win. Ole Miss also completed just 40% of their passes for only 149 yards.
Here are the players I've given helmet stickers to so far.
Antonio Allen (DB, South Carolina) - 1
Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1
Dwight Bentley (DB, Lousiana) - 1
Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson) - 1
Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) - 1
Nordly Capi (DL, Colorado State) - 1
Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - 1
Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) - 1
Ja'Terian Douglas (RB, Tulsa) - 1
Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) - 1
Robert Griffin III 2 (QB, Baylor) - vs Rice. 29/33, 338 yards, 5 TDs. 6 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD. Griffin has just been amazing this year. He has the highest QB rating in the nation at 236.2, and has thrown 13 touchdowns. He has only thrown 12 incompletions. We'll see how he holds up as he begins Big 12 play next week.
LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 23 rushes, 288 yards, 2 TDs. James now leads the nation in rushing with 613 yards and has an amazing 9.4 yards per carry with 7 touchdowns. With two straight 200+ yard performances, he's back in the Heisman mix.
Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - at Maryland. 32 carries, 149 yards, 5 TDs. Pierce set a school record with his 5 touchdowns as Temple led 31-0 and thrashed Maryland 38-7. Pierce leads the nation with 12 rushing TDs through 4 games.
Kellen Moore 2 (QB, Boise State) - at Toledo. 23/29, 279 yards, 4 TDs. Moore ranks third in the nation in pass efficiency (192.6 QB rating), and has thrown 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He tossed 4 TDs against a Toledo team that I thought was pretty good.
T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - at Cincinnati. 7 catches, 176 yards, 2 TDs. Graham caught TD passes of 87 and 49 and was the only NC State player to score a touchdown. He has over 100 yards receiving in each of the last 3 games.
Keith Price (QB, Washington) - vs California. 19/25, 292 yards, 3 TDs. 7 rushes, 21 yards. Price ranks 9th in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating) and ties for most touchdowns with 14. He has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in each of his first 4 games.
Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - at Kentucky. 10 carries, 157 yards, 2 TDs. Demps has touchdown runs of 20 and 84 yards. He has been pretty hit and miss this season, but averaged 15.7 yards per carry this week in a big win on the road.
Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - at Ole Miss. 2 INTs, 26 yards. 4 tackles (4 solo), 1 pass defended. The nation's leader in interceptions got two more at important times of this game. Just after Ole Miss scored to cut it to 17-7 in the first half, they recovered an onside kick. On 2nd and 3rd down of the ensuing drive, Rambo had a pass breakup and interception. He had another interception in the final minutes as Ole Miss was driving to seal the win. Ole Miss also completed just 40% of their passes for only 149 yards.
Here are the players I've given helmet stickers to so far.
Antonio Allen (DB, South Carolina) - 1
Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1
Dwight Bentley (DB, Lousiana) - 1
Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson) - 1
Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) - 1
Nordly Capi (DL, Colorado State) - 1
Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - 1
Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) - 1
Ja'Terian Douglas (RB, Tulsa) - 1
Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) - 1
Chris Givens (WR, Wake Forest) - 1
T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - 1
Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 2
Chandler Harnish (QB, Northern Illinois) - 2
Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - 1
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) - 1
LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 1
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - 2
Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - 2
Case Keenum (QB, Houston) - 1
Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) - 1
Eric Page (WR, Toledo) - 1
Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - 1
Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) - 1
Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - 1
Keith Price (QB, Washington) - 1
Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - 1
Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) - 1
Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1
Jordan White (WR, Western Michigan) - 1
Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State) - 1
Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) - 2
T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - 1
Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 2
Chandler Harnish (QB, Northern Illinois) - 2
Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - 1
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) - 1
LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 1
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - 2
Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - 2
Case Keenum (QB, Houston) - 1
Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) - 1
Eric Page (WR, Toledo) - 1
Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - 1
Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) - 1
Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - 1
Keith Price (QB, Washington) - 1
Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - 1
Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) - 1
Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1
Jordan White (WR, Western Michigan) - 1
Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State) - 1
Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) - 2
Robert Woods (WR, USC) - 1
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Week 4 (9/24) Rankings
It's so hard to rank some teams this early in the season. But here are my rankings:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma State
6. Nebraska
7. Stanford
8. Clemson
9. Oregon
10. Boise State
11. Georgia Tech
12. South Carolina
13. Baylor
14. Virginia Tech
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Texas
18. South Florida
19. Washington
20. Penn State
21. Texas A&M
22. Illinois
23. Florida State
24. Arizona State
25. Temple
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma State
6. Nebraska
7. Stanford
8. Clemson
9. Oregon
10. Boise State
11. Georgia Tech
12. South Carolina
13. Baylor
14. Virginia Tech
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Texas
18. South Florida
19. Washington
20. Penn State
21. Texas A&M
22. Illinois
23. Florida State
24. Arizona State
25. Temple
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