The Big 12 (with 10 teams) has one clear leader and a couple of possible contenders. Oklahoma should win the conference, but Texas A&M and Oklahoma State could be in the mix at the end of the season.
Oklahoma lost 1,000 yard rusher DeMarco Murray, but returns a wealth of talent with 16 starters (8 offense, 8 defense). Last year, they were 3rd in passing yards (343.4 YPG), 14th in scoring offense (37.2 PPG), and 33rd in scoring defense (21.8 PPG). I think the scoring offense and scoring defense will both be ranked higher this year. QB Landry Jones is a junior, and last year completed 65.6% of his passes for 4,718 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have another huge year with WR Ryan Broyles returning (1,622 yards, 14 touchdowns last year). I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones in the Heisman race, but I doubt he'll win it with guys like LaMichael James and Andrew Luck on the ballot. The defense lost some key players, but they have a lot of returning talent and Bob Stoops is a great coach with a very good staff. Brent Venables has consistently had good defenses here and they should have a top-15 defense this year. The current Oklahoma depth chart calls for only 5 senior starters this year, so they could win a national championship either of the next two years, depending on how many guys leave early for the NFL after this season. In the current defense starting lineup, only DT Casey Walker and CB Gabe Lynn have not seen much playing time. Oklahoma really has only three games this year that could be potential losses: at Florida State on September 17, vs Texas A&M on November 5, and at Oklahoma State on December 3. I think they'll win at least two of those, and they could have a rematch with Florida State in the national championship. While that would be great for OU fans, I think FSU gets revenge and knocks Oklahoma off, then Oklahoma goes 10-2 or 11-1, wins the Big 12, and gets left out of the championship by a couple of undefeated teams. They'll finish the season in the top 5 and will be set up to compete for a national title in 2012.
Texas A&M only needs to replace a lineman on offense, and they bring everyone else back. QB Ryan Tannehill took over for Jerrod Johnson mid-season last year and played pretty well. He threw for 1,638 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 6 1/2 games. Returning RB Cyrus Gray rushed for 1,133 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. If Texas A&M can win more turnover battles (-5 last year), they should have a great season. They do have to travel to Oklahoma, but get Oklahoma State at home. With 8 returning starters on defense, they should improve a bit on both sides of the ball. I think Texas A&M gets to 9 wins again, but with games against Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Missouri, and at Oklahoma, I think they're going to drop a few of them even though most of their tough games are at home.
If anyone can really contend with Oklahoma for the Big 12 title, it's Oklahoma State. QB Brandon Weeden is now a senior and last year threw for 4,277 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. His top target, WR Justin Blackmon, is also back (1,782 yards, 20 touchdowns last year). Blackmon is a very explosive player any time he touches the ball. The biggest question for OSU is the defense, which allowed 26.4 PPG last year and returns just 5 starters. Oklahoma State gets Oklahoma at home, and they could win that game. Even though they have lost 8 straight to Oklahoma, 3 of the 4 home losses have been by 6 points or less. I would not be surprised to see Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with 1 conference loss and this game being the deciding factor.
I still think Oklahoma is definitely the best team in this conference and will win the conference title for the 8th time since 2000.
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