The Big East seems to be up for grabs this year. There are three new coaches in the conference: Todd Graham at Pittsburgh, Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia, and Paul Pasqualoni at Connecticut. Three others are in their second year: Skip Holtz at South Florida, Butch Jones at Cincinnati, and Charlie Strong at Louisville. I could see half of the teams winning the conference this year. USF, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh all seem to have a legitimate shot at winning it. All four teams have something in common: a returning starter at quarterback.
South Florida returns 11 players, including junior QB B.J. Daniels, who was out the last couple games of last year with an injury. Daniels can be really good at times, but he also really struggles at times. Last year he completed 58.4% of his passes for 1,685 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He also rushed for 259 yards and 5 touchdowns. While his stats aren't great, he is a playmaker and I think he'll be much improved this year. They do need to replace three starters on the offensive line as well as their top rusher, receiver, and tackler. Their key games will be September 29 at Pittsburgh and December 1 vs West Virginia (home team has won the last 4 games). Both games are Thursday night games. The non-conference schedule is manageable but includes Miami and at Notre Dame.
I expect Cincinnati to really improve upon last year's 4-8 record. Butch Jones had a lot of success at Central Michigan and I think he'll turn it around in his second year here. QB Zach Collaros is a senior and completed 58.7% of his passes last year for 2,902 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He also ran for 202 yards and 4 more touchdowns. They return 10 starters on defense, but only 5 on offense. They do return their top rusher, Isaiah Pead, who ran for over 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns last year with an average of 6.6 yards per carry. However, I expect that to go down this year as they need to replace 3 starters on the offensive line. They also need to replace 3 of their top 5 receivers. Their three biggest conference games come all in a row and two are on the road: October 22 at USF, November 5 at Pittsburgh, and November 12 vs West Virginia. Cincinnati can build momentum in September with wins at Tennessee and vs NC State, but I think the middle stretch of conference games will get them.
West Virginia went through an unexpected coaching change. Dana Holgorsen had been hired as the offensive coordinator and was going to take over for Bill Stewart after this year. Over the summer, they asked Stewart to resign and Holgorsen took over. I really like what Holgorsen is doing at WVU. The biggest obstacle for West Virginia is replacing RB Noel Devine. Freshman RB Andrew Buie could make an immediate impact. He drew interest from Auburn and Arkansas and received offers from Michigan, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh, among others. He is a fast, physical runner similar to Steve Slaton. Returning 4 starters on the offensive line will help a lot, too. Returning QB Geno Smith completed 64.8% of his passes for 2,763 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while rushing for 217 yards. Dynamic WR Tavon Austin returns as well. The defense may take some time as they only return 4 starters. West Virginia will probably get blown when they host LSU but has a fairly easy non-conference schedule besides that. Their final three games of the season will be the toughest, as they play at Cincinnati on November 12, vs Pittsburgh on November 25, and at USF on December 1. Despite the tough schedule down the stretch, I think Holgorsen is doing a great job and the offense should be the most potent attack in the conference.
Pittsburgh will surely miss RB Dion Lewis, who left early for the draft. He rushed for 1,061 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. But they also welcome back RB Ray Graham, who got 2/3 as many carries as Lewis and rushed for 922 yards (6.2 YPC) and 8 touchdowns. Another big loss is Jonathan Baldwin who brought in 53 catches for 822 yards and 5 touchdowns. They do bring back two receivers who had an impact last year in Mike Shanahan and Devin Street, who were the second and third leading receivers last year. The offensive line is in good shape, bringing back four starters who are all seniors. 6 of the front-7 on defense are returning, and are seniors as well. This is a veteran Pitt team with 11 starting seniors who are all returning starters. They also have 7 starting juniors. Junior QB Tino Sunseri completed 64.5% of his passes last year for 2,572, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. The non-conference schedule could be rough for Pitt, as they play at Iowa, vs Notre Dame, and vs Utah on October 15.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2- or 3-way tie for first place in the conferenece. I think that West Virginia and Pittsburgh will tie for the title, and possibly Cincinnati as well. West Viriginia and Pittsburgh have one important thing in common: 4 returning starters on the offensive line. Continuity on the offensive line can be very important in college football. While they both have first year coaches, I think that Holgorsen (WVU) is a great coach and Graham (Pitt) has enough talent to compete. The big game to watch here is going to be Pittsburgh at West Virginia on November 25. I think that game will decide the Big East champion. West Virginia goes 10-2 and takes the conference crown.
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