Conference Preview - MAC

The MAC East and West division races will probably be two different stories. I think that Miami is going to cruise through the East as they return 17 starters, including QB Zac Dysert. Dysert missed a few games at the end of last year, and backup Austin Boucher did a good job winning the MAC title game and bowl game. Dysert completed 64.7% of his passes for 2,406 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 10 starts. Miami replaces just one player on the offensive line and brings back virtually the entire defense. 9 starters return on defense, and the two players that are new each started two games last year. Miami does play a tougher MAC schedule with Toledo, Temple, and Ohio on the road. Despite the schedule, I think Miami wins the East by a game or two.

The West has a few capable candidates with Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Toledo. Toledo has the edge with the schedule as their road games are against Temple, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, and Ball State. They get Northern Illinois and Western Michigan on the road. Western Michigan will have road games against Northern Illinois, Toledo, Miami, and Eastern Michigan, meaning the three hardest conference games will be on the road for them.

Northern Illinois will be breaking in a new coach in Dave Doeren, who was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin for the past three years and co-defensive coordinator for two years before that. NIU will be going to a no-huddle offense, but they will also have 4-year starter (31 total starts) QB Chandler Harnish running the show. Last year Harnish completed 64.7% of his passes for 2,530 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Northern Illinois will sure miss RB Chad Spann, but Harnish rushed for 836 yards last year. They also return RB Jasmin Hopkins (366 yards, 2 touchdowns last year) and QB Jordan Lynch who rushed for 362 yards (11.7 YPC) and 3 touchdowns last year. Northern Illinois will put up a lot of yards and a lot of points this year, but they might struggle on defense. They were 14th in the nation in scoring last year (18.9 PPG), but they only return 4 starters from that defense. They need to replace 6 of the top 7 tacklers from last year. The defense may come around and do fine, but they could also struggle a lot all season.

Western Michigan returns a wealth of offense this year. The main task is to replace two offensive linemen. They will be without WR Juan Nunez (who had over 1,000 yards receiving last year), but they welcome back top WR Jordan White. White caught 94 passes for 1,378 yards (14.7 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. Junior QB Alex Carder completed 63.1% of his passes for a whopping 3,334 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. They also return all of their rushers, with 5 players rushing for over 150 yards last season (including Carder). Top RB Tevin Drake carried the ball 40 times last year for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's 10.1 yards per carry and he only lost a total of 8 yards on those 40 carries. I expect his carries to go up and his YPC to go down, but he'll still be an effective runner. The defense lost a couple of key players, but do return 8 starters. The biggest problem they face is their schedule, with their toughest MAC games on the road.

Toledo returns 15 starters this year, 8 on offense and 7 on defense. The biggest loss is LB Archie Donald who had 146 tackles and 3 interceptions last year. Due to injury, they played two QBs last season, Austin Dantin and Terrence Owens. Dantin is a solid rusher and Owens is a better passer. Dantin completed 66.1% of passes for 1,254 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions while Owens completd 59.5% for 1,244 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Dantin also had more attempts. They'll both probably see a lot of playing time. As of the depth chart on 8/24, Dantin was listed first but they're both listed as the starter. Pretty much all rushers and receivers are returning, while two interior linemen need to be replaced. Senior RB Adonis Thomas rushed for 1,098 yards and 8 touchdowns. The top WR last year was junior Eric Page, who had 1,105 yards and 8 touchdowns. The offense should have a great year and really improve on last year (only 27.9 PPG). The best player on defense will probably be junior LB Dan Molls, who recorded 143 tackles, 5 sacks, and 3 interceptions last year manning the interior linebacker position along with Donald.

The West could really be a close race between the three teams. Northern Illinois will struggle too much with not enough returning defenders and a new coach and offense. Western Michigan has the toughest conference schedule of the bunch. Of the three, Toledo has the easiest conference schedule and has enough returning offense and defense to feel confident in picking them to win the West. Miami will win the East but won't win back-to-back conference titles. The MAC championship will be a close game, but I'm giving Toledo the edge.