Conference Preview - MWC

The Mountain West is in a big state of transition this year. This year they lost Utah and BYU and gained Boise State. Next year they lose TCU and gain Fresno State and Nevada. It looks like there will be three teams fighting for the conference crown this year, Boise State, TCU, and San Diego State.

San Diego State is on a bit of a lower level than Boise State and TCU. They'll miss NFL WR's Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, as well as RB Brandon Sullivan who caught 26 passes for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns. They do return 4 starters on the offensive line, as well as RB Ronnie Hillman. Hillman is a home run hitter in the backfied and last year rushed for 1,532 yards (5.8 YPC) and 17 touchdowns. Senior QB Ryan Lindley is a good NFL prospect and last year completed 57.7% of his passes for 3,830 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The defense returns 5 starters, but Rocky Long (defensive coordinator last year, head coach this year) said that between 22 and 24 guys saw playing time because they alternated so much. I expect SDSU to have a pretty good season, but I don't think they're as good as Boise State and TCU. They do have a lot of weapons, but the main reason I think they can contend for the MWC title is because they get Boise State and TCU at home. They'll win one of those games and lose the other, and then possibly lose either at Air Force or at Colorado State. I think they'll go 5-2 in conference, but if things fall their way or they go 6-1, they could definitely end up in a tie with Boise State and TCU.

TCU won the Rose Bowl last year and finished the season 13-0. However, they only return 8 starters from that team. The offense was 4th in the nation in scoring (41.6 PPG), and the defense was 1st in the nation in total defense (228.46 YPG) and scoring (12.0 PPG). The defense loses S Tejay Johnson, among others, but they also return LB's Tank Carder and Tanner Brock (team's leading tackler). The defense has led the country in total defense for three STRAIGHT seasons. So while they lose a lot of players on defense, I have to think that Gary Patterson will have a top ten defense this year, especially with Carder and Brock returning. On offense, they'll really miss QB Andy Dalton. As a four-year starter, he got better every year. Last year he threw for 2,857 yards with 27 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also rushed for over 400 yards each of the last three seasons. Sophomore QB Casey Pachall threw just 9 passes last year, and only played in blowouts. They do welcome back junior RB Ed Wesley who rushed for 1,078 yards (6.5 YPC) and 11 touchdowns last year, as well as leading receiver Josh Boyce. WR Jeremy Kerley will missed, as he was a playmaker all over the field. TCU starts off the season tough, with their first two games being at Baylor and at Air Force. I could see TCU starting out 0-2 as the defense and new QB may need some time to gel, but Gary Patterson usually does a good job of getting the team ready. They also play at San Diego State and at Boise State. I think TCU drops two of those three conference road games and also finishes 5-2 in conference.

Boise State has gained a lot of respect from outsiders over the last 5 years. In the 8 years they spent in the WAC, they compiled a 62-2 record and had 11 or more wins in all but one season (9-4 in 2005). Boise State has lost just 2 games in the last 4 years, losing to Nevada last year in overtime and to TCU in the Rose Bowl by one point after the 2008 season. BSU returns 14 starters this year, but they will absolutely miss some of the players they lost, including WR Titus Young, WR Austin Pettis, and S Winston Venable, who are all now in the NFL. They do have 3 returning starters on the offensive line and welcome back the most important player and Heisman finalist from last year, senior QB Kellen Moore. Last year, Moore completed 71.3% of his passes for 3,845 yards (10.04 YPA) with 35 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Kellen Moore has been phenomenal in his three years starting at Boise State. I think he'll have another huge year. Senior RB Doug Martin also rushed for 1,260 yards  (6.3 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last season. Boise State does return 7 starters on defense, but did lose some key players and will be playing against tougher offenses such as TCU and San Diego State. I don't think BSU goes undefeated this year. They play vs TCU and at San Diego State in back to back weeks, and I think they'll drop one of those games. They start the season at Georgia, who is ranked in the top 25 despite going 6-7 last year and lost the top two 2 rushers and top two receivers from last year (and they'll be without the third best RB from last year for at least the first game). Boise State may win that game but a few touchdowns, and since it is a game on the road on such a big stage, it could give them a win that seems better than it really is. I'm calling for them to go 11-1 with a loss to TCU or San Diego State.

I think the MWC title will go to Boise State (6-1) with TCU and San Diego State being tied for second (5-2). I could see this ending up in a three-way tie at 6-1 or 5-2, but I don't see TCU or SDSU winning the conference outright.