Conference Preview - Pac-12

The Pac-12 has two legitimate national title contenders in the North division, Oregon and Stanford. USC seems to be the best team in the South division, but they are under NCAA sanctions and cannot advance to the Pac-12 Championship. This leaves the door wide open for the rest of the division, and I think that Arizona State and Utah have the best chances to make the conference championship as the second place team in the division.

Oregon played for the national championship last year, and lost by three on a last second field goal after a contraversial call put Auburn close enough to kick a field goal. Oregon returns 11 starters from that team, including 2 possible Heisman candidates, QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James who are both juniors. Thomas completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,881, 30 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also rushed for 486 yards (5.2 YPC) and 5 touchdowns. James was a Heisman finalist last year after rushing for 1,731 yards (5.9 YPC) and 21 touchdowns along with 208 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns. They will absolutely miss top WR Jeff Maehl, who had 1,076 yards and 12 touchdowns and was a play maker all over the field. They also lose WR D.J. Davis (470 yards, 3 touchdowns). Oregon returns just 2 offensive linemen, so James might get off to a slower start running the ball, but I think Thomas will be an improved passer. His stats may not reflect that, however, as they lose 3 offensive linemen and their top two receivers. On defense, they return 5 starters but will need to replace LB Casey Matthews (leading tackler) and DE Kenny Rowe, among others. Oregon also returns 68% of their lettermen. The schedule for Oregon is tough, as they play LSU (in Arlington) and travel to Arizona and Stanford.

Stanford has the leading Heisman candidate heading into the season, senior QB Andrew Luck. Luck was also a finalist last year and completed 70.7% of his passes for 3,338 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and added 453 yards rushing (8.2 YPC) and 3 touchdowns. 8.2 yards per carry for a quarterback is very high. The yards per carry won't be as high for him as I think he will get sacked more times this year with just two returning offensive linemen. Junior RB Stepfan Taylor is also back, who rushed for 1,137 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Like Oregon, Stanford loses their top two receivers, Doug Baldwin (857 yards, 9 touchdowns) and Ryan Whalen (439 yards, 2 touchdowns). Stanford returns more lettermen than Oregon, at 74%. They return 6 starters on defense, including their top 4 tacklers, but will miss LB/FB Owen Marecic. Stanford would be my favorite to win the division with playing Oregon at home, but they will have a new coach. David Shaw has been the offensive coordinator the last 4 years, and is now the head coach. There is some getting used to a new coach, even if he was promoted from within. They play Oregon on November 12, so it may be late enough in the season that it doesn't matter.

In the south, USC will likely be the top team but cannot advance to the conference championship. They return 13 starters including QB Matt Barkley (62.6%, 2,791 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), RB Marc Tyler (913 yards, 9 touchdowns), and WR Robert Woods (792 yards, 6 touchdowns). They also return the top tackler, FS T.J. McDonald, who also had 3 interceptions last year. I think USC will come in first in the South division but Arizona State or Utah will be playing Oregon/Stanford for the conference championship.

Arizona State returns 15 starters, but will be breaking in a QB who played little last year. QB Brock Osweiler threw 109 passes, compared to Steven Threet's 336. Threet retired due to concussions. The offense returns all 5 offensive linemen, which will help them a lot, as well as all rushers from last year. RB Cameron Marshall led the running backs with 787 yards and 9 touchdowns. They will be replacing top WR Kerry Taylor (699 yards, 3 touchdowns) but return 7 players who had over 200 yards receiving last year. The defense had LB Vontaze Burfict back, who was the leading tackler last year and is expected to be even better this year. They get USC at home, but have to travel to Utah and Oregon. However, they don't have to play Stanford, so that will help them out quite a bit.

Utah will be playing an AQ schedule for the first time, and it's hard to determine exactly how they'll do. They have a new offensive coordinator in Norm Chow, who is familiar with Pac-12 schools after coaching at USC and UCLA. QB Jordan Wynn completed 62.2% of his passes for 2,334 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He should be able to improve that quite a bit as he was playing through a shoulder injury for almost all of last year. He will also be playing in an offense that he feels more comfortable in. WR DeVonte Christopher is back (660 yards, 6 touchdowns), as well as a few new receivers like Dres Anderson and Reggie Dunn (played last year, mostly on special teams and got a lot of carries). The rushing attack is mostly new, but JC transfer John White was the leading rusher in JC football last year and is expected to do well. RB Tauni Vakapuna only carried the ball 19 times last year, but is back. Newcomers Harvey Langi and Thretton Palamo will add to what should be a deep rushing attack. The offensive line returns 3 starters, including all-MWC tackle Tony Bergstrom. The defense will have an entirely new secondary, but returns the top two tacklers in LB Chaz Walker and LB Matt Martinez. Sophomore Brian Blechen has been moved from safety to linebacker. Utah's conference schedule will give them an opportunity to compete for the Pac-12 South, as they play Arizona State at home and miss Oregon and Stanford. They do have to travel to USC early in the season, but it might be better for them to play USC before getting into the grind of Pac-12 play.

Picking between Oregon and Stanford is so tough. Both teams have a lot of big playmakers on both sides of the ball. I think one team will be 9-0 in conference and the other will be 8-1. It will all come down to the game on November 12. Oregon has had contraversy swirling around the program and Stanford is breaking in a new coach (who has been with the program for 4 years already). With the game being late in the season, it's unlikely that either of those issues will have a factor. If this game was at Oregon, I would absolutely feel confident picking them. But while it is at Stanford, they don't provide much of a home field advantage. Last year at Oregon, Stanford jumped out to a 21-3 first half lead. Oregon battled back and it was 31-24 at halftime. Oregon outscored Stanford in the second half 28-0 to win 52-31. If this was earlier in the season, I would probably pick Stanford as it's a home game for them, Oregon has all the contraversy, and Stanford has more guys on the team that have played. But with it being late in the year, none of those things will matter, and I think Oregon wins again this year in a close game with Thomas and James leading the offense.

In the South, I think it will probably come down to the Arizona State at Utah game. ASU has been very inconsistent in recent years and hasn't lived up to their potential. Utah's schedule will help them a lot, and may end up in a 6-3 tie with ASU, but beating them in Salt Lake will give them the tie breaker and put Utah in the Pac-12 Championship in their first year in the conference.

The Pac-12 Championship game will not be very close, as either Oregon or Stanford would have home field advantage and likely dominate Utah or Arizona State. I'm picking Oregon over Utah by at least 20 points.