The Conference USA West division just got even more clear. Tulsa's top WR Damaris Johnson has been suspended indefinitely. Last year he caught 57 passes for 872 yards (15.3 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. Johnson is the NCAA all-purpose yardage record-holder. In addition, they lost their next two receivers. So it seems that Houston has the West division pretty much locked up, as long as Case Keenum stays healthy.
Houston's season started off with a bang, until they lost QB Case Keenum for the year against UCLA. They also lost backup QB Cotton Turner in the same game. Keenum was granted a 6th year of eligibility and I don't see anyone challenging Houston for the division. In 2009, Keenum threw for 5,671 yards with 44 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. And in 2008, he threw for 5,020 with 44 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Houston also returns their top two rushers, Bryce Beall (870 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Michael Hayes (629 yards, 8 touchdowns). Probably the biggest challenge will be replacing three starters on the offensive line. Houston returns 6 starters on defense, including the top 5 tacklers from last year. Houston will have a chance at home against UCLA to gain some early attention and the schedule is pretty much a breeze after that. Out of the east division, they don't play Southern Miss or UCF who should be the top two teams in the division.
In the east, Southern Miss and UCF look to be the top two teams. UCF was 8th in the nation in scoring defense last year (17.1 PPG), but they only return 4 starters from that squad. They do return 2 of the top 3 tacklers (who also combined for 3 interceptions), but the defense will likely take a step back. The offense returns 6 starters, including QB Jeff Godfrey who threw for 2,159 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Under George O'Leary, UCF has focused more on the running game, and they ranked 26th in the nation in rushing offense last year (187.6 YPG). They return 3 starters on the offensive line, as well as a stable of running backs lead by Ronnie Weaver (890 yards, 11 touchdowns last year) and Latavius Murray (636 yards, 11 touchdowns last year). UCF will have a couple chances to prove themselves as they host Boston College on September 10 and travel to BYU on September 23. Their toughest conference game is on the road, however, at Southern Miss on November 12.
The biggest problem for Southern Miss last year was their defense, allowing 29.5 PPG (81st in the nation). They allowed over 40 points five times (1-4 record in those games), and over 50 points twice. One of the 50 point games was a double overtime game, and they only allowed 35 points in regulation. Three of their five losses last year came when they allowed over 40 points in regulation. The defense looks to improve this year, as they return 7 starters, including MLB Korey Williams who had 92 tackles, with 3 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss as well as an interception. Look for the senior to be the anchor of the defense and lead them to a better season. On offense, they return senior QB Austin Davis who threw for 3,103 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 452 yards and 10 touchdowns. They'll have to replace a few targets, as they lose two of their top four receivers, but still have WR Kelvin Bolden (722 yards, 6 touchdowns last year). They also return the duo of RB Kendrick Hardy (903 yards, 7 touchdowns) and RB Desmond Johnson (611 yards, 8 touchdowns). Three starters return on the offensive line. If Southern Miss can run the table in the division, they could go 12-0. Their hardest non-conference games are at Virginia and vs Louisiana Tech.
While I'm tempted to pick UCF to have another big season (11-3 last year), I think their defense is not going to be as good as they were last year. I also think Southern Miss will be even better on offense and the defense will be much improved. Southern Miss also gets UCF at home late in the season, and I think that will be the difference. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Houston and Southern Miss both undefeated in the conference championship, but I think Southern Miss slips a game or two during the season. They'll still have 10 wins in the regular season, but Houston will be the team that is 12-0 (assuming Keenum doesn't get hurt again). I also think Houston wins the conference championship and goes to their first BCS game at 13-0. This conference could surprise a few people this year with Houston, UCF, and Southern Miss all looking to do pretty well.
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