The Big Ten (with 12 teams) changed a bit over the offseason. Ohio State looked to contend with Wisconsin for the Leaders division, but then Terrell Pryor left the team and Jim Tressell was fired due to the violations. In the Legends division, Nebraska could win in their first year in the conference. Michigan State looks somewhat promising, but I think last year was so good because of their schedule (started out with 5 home games, didn't leave the state until game 8, played Wisconsin at home, didn't play Ohio State) and then they got creamed by Alabama in the Capital One bowl.
Wisconsin lost QB Scott Tolzien, but was very fortunate to pick up Russell Wilson, who left NC State. Wilson is going to be the starter and will be a dual threat player. Last year he completed 58.4% of his passes for 3,563 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He also rushed for 435 yards and 9 touchdowns. Wisconsin returns three starters on the offensive line, as well as two of their three running backs who saw a lot of playing time last year. They had an incredible backfield with Jamies White (1,052 yards, 14 touchdowns), John Clay (1,012 yards, 14 touchdowns), and Montee Ball (996 yards, 18 touchdowns). While they lost Clay, Ball could be even better this year in his sophomore season. They'll have to replace quite a few people on offense, including the top 3 tacklers from last year, but they are returning 78% of their lettermen, which is second in the Big Ten (Northwestern is higher). In October, they host Nebraska and also play at Michigan State and at Ohio State in back-to-back weeks. I expect Wisconsin to drop at least one of those games, and maybe even two. That should still be good enough to win the Leaders division, especially if they win at Ohio State.
I don't see anyone challenging Nebraska for the Legends division. Michigan State will only win 7 or 8 games as their schedule is much more difficult than last year, and Iowa lost too much on both sides of the ball. Michigan will be much improved with Brady Hoke and they benefit from an easier schedule, playing Ohio State and Nebraska at home and not playing Wisconsin. I think they'll finish in the top half of the division, but not first. Northwestern will be even better, especially if his Achilles is completely healed and he stays healthy. However, they play Nebraska on the road and benefited from an easy schedule early and some close wins last year. They've only won 10 games in a season twice, and even though they return almost the entire offense and most of the defense, I think their best case scenario is 9 wins.
Nebraska only returns 5 starters on offense, but the most important player returning is sophomore QB Taylor Martinez. He had a great start to a freshman season, but really struggled down the stretch. He'll be much improved this year, and though the offensive line only returns 2 starters, Nebraska has always been solid on both sides of the line. The offense may take a small step back, but the defense was 9th in the nation in scoring defense last year (17.4 PPG) and I think they'll be top-10 again this year. If the division was better, I'm not sure Nebraska would win the division. Especially with the schedule, as they play on the road against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. I think the Legends division is going to be a mess this year, with the top 5 teams (everyone but Minnesota) will be beating each other week in and week out, and Nebraska will come out on top (maybe tied with Michigan or Iowa).
While Wisconsin vs Nebraska in the first Big Ten championship seems a little lopsided, Nebraska played in the last two Big 12 championship and lost by a total of 4 points. Nebraska was the lower ranked team in both games, and one of those games was a one point loss on a last second field goal by national runner-up Texas. I think this game is close, but Nebraska loses their third straight conference championship game to a 10-2 Wisconsin team.
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