Washington at Utah Preview

This week Utah plays their first home Pac-12 game. Washington leads the all-time series, but every game has been at Washington and they haven't played since 1979. Utah is coming off a bye week and Whittingham is 6-0 after regular season byes. Utah has won the last 10 after regular season byes, going back to 2002.

It's hard to really gauge where Washington is. Their defense has given up a ton of yards through the air, but they've also played Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and Cal who all love to throw the ball. In fact, Eastern Washington and Hawaii don't do much besides throw the ball. Utah has struggled at times to throw the ball, so they'll want to get that going early to spread out the Washington defense. Their rush defense is ranked 48th, giving up 125.8 YPG, despite playing Eastern Washington and Hawaii, who don't really run the ball. They gave up 309 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns to the 8th ranked rush offense, Nebraska.

Utah should be able to run the ball with John White, who is ranked 9th in rushing (126.7 YPG). He also has 5 rushing touchdowns through just 3 games. In order to make the run game more effective, QB Jordan Wynn will have to spread the ball around to get the UW defense to spread out over the field. He'll also need to throw the ball downfield. He has shown sparks of a great QB at times and has thrown the ball downfield, he'll just need to continue to improve. I think he'll be quite a bit improved after the week off. The good thing about Wynn is that he has played mostly mistake free, only throwing 1 interception which was on a tipped pass. There have been a couple other passes that could have been intercepted, though. Still, he's looking like a smart, mature quarterback who just needs his shoulder to get stronger.

Utah has the 13th ranked rush defense, allowing just 79.33 yards per game on the ground. In their last game, they held BYU to 11 rushing yards, had 2 sacks, and forced 7 turnovers. Of course, they won't be able to have that same performance against UW RB Chris Polk and QB Keith Price, but they should be able to hold their own against a pretty good offense. They've let up a lot of yards through the air, partly because of BYU, but they rank 33rd in pass efficiency defense (114.7 QB rating). Keith Price ranks 9 in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating), so something's got to give. I think he'll throw the ball well on Utah at first, but Utah will eventually slow the run and be able to get after Price to get him out of his element.

I expect there to be quite a few points scored in this game. For Utah to win, they'll need to play solid defensively and slow down Polk, then get after Price. For Washington to win, they'll need to spread the ball around and score a lot of points. If this gets high scoring, Utah could be in trouble, especially if Washington's defense forces a couple interceptions.

My pick is Utah 28, Washington 24.

Week 5 (10/1) Picks

Last week I was 21-2, bringing the total to 92-13. I got the game of the week, so I'm 3-1 there. However, it didn't end up being a shootout like I thought it would. Some of the good were picking Oregon to cruise over Arizona, Burfict taking down Barkley in ASU's upset win, and Michigan beating San Diego State. Some of the bad were picking FSU to shut down Clemson's offense, Oregon State finally getting a win, and Alabama having a close game with Arkansas.

#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh - USF gives Pitt their third straight loss.
#14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas - Arkansas comes out slowly after the blowout loss to Alabama, but so does TAMU after the tough loss to Oklahoma State. But they both find their stride and Arkansas has the last chance to score.
Minnesota at #19 Michigan - Michigan has only lost to Minnesota 3 times since 1968.
Northwestern at #24 Illinois - Persa's return gives Northwestern a boost.
Kentucky at #1 LSU - Kentucky won't get into double digits here.
Nevada at #4 Boise State - BSU gets revenge for last year's weird overtime loss.
Auburn at #10 South Carolina - Auburn doesn't play enough defense to win on the road here.
#15 Baylor at Kansas State - Another big day for Griffin as Big 12 play starts.
SMU at #20 TCU - SMU's not bad, and their offense will give TCU fits in the first half.
#21 Georgia Tech at NC State - GT will rack up over 500 yards of offense against a bad NC State team.
Bowling Green at #22 West Virginia - Easy game for WVU as they try to get over the loss to LSU.
Arizona at USC - Arizona's offensive line gets ripped apart again and they're 1-4.
Michigan State at Ohio State - Two struggling teams, but I'm going with the home team on this one.
Washington State at Colorado - WSU was exposed on the road last week, and Boulder won't be much easier.
#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech - Lane Stadium gives VT the win here.
Ball State at #2 Oklahoma - Ball State is 3-1, but they haven't played anybody.
#17 Texas at Iowa State - Iowa State moves to 4-0 for the first time since 2000.
Washington at Utah - Utah's defense win it at home.
#3 Alabama at #12 Florida - It won't be easy, but Bama comes out of The Swamp with a win.
#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin - Camp Randall Stadium at night is too much for Nebraska.
UCLA at #6 Stanford - Andrew Luck is too good to even consider a home loss here.
Oregon State at #25 Arizona State - Oregon State falls to 0-4 for the first time since 1996.

Game of the Week - #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin

Not only is this the first Big Ten conference game for #8 Nebraska, it's also a big cross-division matchup with two top ten teams as they travel to #7 Wisconsin. Both teams are 4-0 and they figure to be the only two really good teams in the conference. Nebraska travels to Penn State and #19 Michigan in mid-November and Wisconsin finishes the season at #24 Illinois and vs Penn State. Both teams also play Michigan State and Ohio State, but those teams are both looking to underachieve and they play each other this week as well. Iowa could end up being a contender at the end of the season. But right now, it looks like this will be preview of the first Big Ten championship.

For Nebraska to win this game, they're probably going to need to throw the ball. They do have the 8th ranked rushing offense (272.5 YPG) but their passing offense is ranked 106th (166.5 YPG). They did rush for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington, but Washington doesn't have a great defense like Wisconsin does. Wisconsin only allows 2.8 yards per carry, while Nebraska averages 6.0 yards per carry. Something's got to give there, and whoever wins that battle could end up winning this game.

Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense (532.3 YPG) and 7th in total defense (256.5 YPG). They're 6th in scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and 3rd in scoring defense (8.5 PPG). So there aren't many teams that have been better overall than Wisconsin. They haven't played much competition, though. UNLV is terrible, Oregon State has been awful, Northern Illinois is decent for a MAC team, and South Dakota is an FCS team.

An advantage Nebraska does have is in the return game. RB Ameer Abdullah is 2nd in kickoff returns, averaging 42.5 yards on 8 returns and has 1 touchdown. He's also a good punt returner, but Wisconsin ranks 17th in net punting, so he may not be as big of a factor there.

Night games at Camp Randall Stadium are always tough. The last Wisconsin home loss was to 6-0 Iowa in 2009, and the last home loss at night was to 6-0 Penn State in 2008. The stadium gets loud and rowdy and I have a feeling this could get ugly in the fourth quarter. But if Wisconsin does pull away, watch Abdullah because he'll have some chances for big kickoff returns. I think Wisconsin is just too good and is going to win this game big.

My pick is Wisconsin 41, Nebraska 20.

Week 5 (10/1) Preview

There are a few big cross-divisional games this week, and a big non-conference game. But I think the game of the week is going to be another 7/8 matchup, #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin. I'll get into more detail on that and Washington at Utah later.

Thursday night has #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh. Pitt's coming off two close, tough losses at Iowa and vs Notre Dame. The conference opener will put the winner in pretty good shape for the conference race, and both teams play West Virginia late in the year. South Florida has been playing really well on offense, and racked up 745 yards and 70 points against Florida A&M. USF QB B.J. Daniels has completed 66.1% of his passes for 1,071 yards and thrown 8 TDs to 1 INT. Pittsburgh has struggled a lot on defense against the pass, ranking 115th allowing 306.3 yards per game, including 399 against Iowa who scored the final 21 points (all passing TDs) in the final 10 minutes to steal the game. Daniels might have a big day and Pitt could drop 3 in a row for the first time since 2007, which is also the last time they didn't go to a bowl game.

#3 Alabama likely gets their last big test before their November 5 date at home with #1 LSU. This week they play at #12 Florida, who has been looking pretty good so far this year. Both teams are 4-0 and riding 5 game win streaks. This game features two great defenses. Alabama is ranked in the top 3 in the major defensive categories: rushing - 3rd (45.8 YPG), passing - 3rd (138.3 YPG), pass efficiency - 2nd (74.7 QB rating), total - 2nd (184 YPG), and scoring - 2nd (8 PPG). Alabama has played tougher competition, and Florida's stats are just a little worse. They rank 5th in rush defense (56.5 YPG), 20th in pass defense (175.3 YPG), pass efficiency defense (95.3 QB rating), 5th in total defense (231.8 YPG), and 4th in scoring defense (9 PPG). Alabama might be able to exploit the Florida pass defense, as A.J. McCarron has played very well since the opener against Kent State. In the last 3 games, he's 49/72 (68%) for 553 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. In the last 3 games, Alabama has not turned the ball over and has 7 takeaways. They've been very impressive the last few games and rank 10th in punt returns and 31st in kick returns. Florida is 102nd in net punting, so we might see Marquis Maze returning another punt for a touchdown. I think this game comes down to whoever plays better defense and who is more opportunistic with field position and turnovers. It won't be easy for Alabama, playing in The Swamp late on a Saturday night, but I think they're the best team in the country and they can do it.

#13 Clemson is coming off two big home wins over Auburn and Florida State, and this week they travel to #11 Virginia Tech for their first road game of the season. Clemson has been tested quite a bit more, especially defensively. They did struggle a little bit with Troy and Wofford, but played well against Auburn and Florida State. They've played well on offense, averaging 502.8 yards per game which is 13th in the nation. QB Tajh Boyd is ranked 11th in pass efficiency (173.8 QB rating) and he ripped apart the tough Florida State defense. Virginia Tech does have a great defense, ranking 2nd in rush defense (43 YPG), 6th in pass efficiency defense (88.6 YPG), 4th in total offense (231.3 YPG), and 6th in scoring defense (10 PPG). They have let up some yards through the air, though, ranking 32nd in pass defense (188.3 YPG). The best QB VT has faced so far is East Carolina's Dominique Davis, who they held to 127 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Boyd is quite a bit better than Davis, and is a much better runner. VT also forced 5 sacks in that game, and they are tied for 10th in sacks, averaging 3.5 per game. Clemson ranks 80th in sacks allowed, allowing 2.3 per game. That could be an area where Clemson will struggle, protecting Boyd. But if he can avoid the pass rush and either scramble or get the ball to WR Sammy Watkins quickly, they might have a chance to knock off Virginia Tech in the night game at Lane Stadium, which is always a tough environment.

The Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium features two teams coming off tough losses to top-5 teams, #14 Texas A&M and #18 Arkansas. Texas A&M blew a 20-3 halftime lead against #5 Oklahoma State to lose 30-29. Arkansas gave a couple of defensive and special teams touchdowns late in the second quarter and early in the third on the way to a 38-14 loss at #3 Alabama. There should be a lot of passing in this game. TAMU throws for 310.7 YPG (19th) and Arkansas throws for 312.3 YPG (18th). Both teams play decent on defense, allowing 17 and 19 points per game. Texas A&M has struggled more against the pass, but they've also only played 3 games and 1 of those was against Oklahoma State and their QB Brandon Weeden. This game will probably be a lot of back and forth and could come down to whoever has the last chance to score.

Some other quick hits this week:

• Northwestern QB Dan Persa is expected to play for the first time this year as they travel to #24 Illinois.
• #19 Michigan plays their conference opener against Minnesota. They're just 6-18 in the conference over the last 3 years.
• Utah State has a true freshman QB and is 1-2 but should've been 3-0 with wins over Auburn and Colorado State. They play at struggling BYU on Friday night.
• Mississippi State plays at Georgia where they're 2-11 and haven't won since 1956. Each team needs a win.
• Toledo beat Syracuse (but it's recorded as a loss), and had a chance to beat Ohio State in the shoe. Temple blew out Maryland and had a chance to win vs Penn State. This week could be a preview of the MAC championship.
• Auburn forced four straight turnovers to end the game against #10 South Carolina last year. Can they pull off they upset this week or do they start a 4-game losing streak?
• Kansas State is 3-0 and coming off a big win over Miami. They'll have their hands full against Baylor QB Robert Griffin III.
• Arizona needs a win at The Coliseum to save their Pac-12 South hopes and avoid a 1-4 start.
• #17 Texas needs to avoid a trap game at Iowa State, as they have #1 Oklahoma and #5 Oklahoma State coming up.

Utah has a home game this week, so I won't get to watch much football besides the morning games and the beginning of the afternoon games. But here are the games I want to watch or would want to watch if I could:

Thursday 6:00 - #16 South Florida at Pittsburgh (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 6:00 - Utah State at BYU (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - #14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - Minnesota at #19 Michigan (BTN)
10:00 - Northwestern at #24 Illinois (ESPN2, ESPN3)
10:00 - Toledo at Temple (ESPN3)
1:30 - Auburn at #10 South Carolina (CBS)
1:30 - #15 Baylor at Kansas State (ABC/ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - Arizona at USC (ROOT)
1:40 - Washington State at Colorado (FCS Pacific)
4:00 - #13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech (ESPN2, ESPN3)
5:00 - Washington at Utah (ROOT)
6:00 - #3 Alabama at #12 Florida (CBS)
6:00 - #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (ABC)
8:30 - UCLA at #6 Stanford (ROOT)

Week 4 (9/24) Thoughts

It looks like Temple might be pretty good this year. They lost at Penn State 14-10 and had chances to win at the end of the game. They blew out their opponents in their other three games, including a road game at Maryland in which they were leading 31-0 at halftime. They play at home against Toledo on Saturday and that should be a telling game for both teams. Toledo should have won their game against Syracuse but the replay booth botched a PAT call which changed the outcome of the game.

Alabama is very good. I thought they'd struggle a bit with Arkansas but they didn't really struggle much and won on all sides of the ball. They intercepted two passes, returning one for a touchdown. They also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown. A.J. McCarron threw 2 touchdown passes and completed 75% of his passes. Trent Richardson carried the ball 17 times and averaged 7.4 yards per carry. They had no turnovers. They're firing on all cylinders right now and have a big matchup at Florida this week. If they win this week, they should breeze through the next 3 before a huge game at home against LSU on November 5. I think they'll be 8-0 going into that game.

Clemson surprised me with a big win over Florida State. I really thought FSU's defense was great and that Clemson would struggle to move the ball. Clemson ended up with 455 yards of offense, including 344 through the air. Clemson WR Sammy Watkins is a great player. He caught a big touchdown pass to give Clemson their first lead at 7-3 in the first quarter. He also had a big 62 yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter right after FSU had just cut the lead to 28-23. QBs for both teams played and had almost identical stats. FSU's Trickett completed 24/38 for 336 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT while Clemson's Boyd completed 23/37 for 344 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. It didn't help that FSU had 11 penalties for 124 yards, and that made a big difference. Both teams struggle to run the ball, averaging around 2 yards per carry. Now Clemson has a big edge in what is shaping up to be a very weak ACC Atlantic division outside of FSU and Clemson.

Oklahoma State was sure a fun game to watch. Texas A&M was surprising jumping out to a 20-3 halftime lead. But OSU head coach Mike Gundy was very calm going into the locker room, saying they needed to just settle down and play their game. They did just that and scored 27 unanswered points on their way to a 30-29 win. OSU QB Brandon Weeden was remarkable, completing 47 of 60 passes for 438 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has such great leadership and poise on the field. Now OSU is in the driver's seat with Oklahoma and that will be a big matchup on December 2 in Stillwater.

LSU keeps winning big games. They were outgained by West Virginia 533-366 but won 47-21. They did force 4 turnovers and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. LSU's worst starting field position was their own 24 yard line, while West Virginia's best was their own 29. LSU started near midfield almost every time they had the ball, and once started on West Virginia's 1 yard line after an interception. Field position can make a huge difference in games, and LSU's defense and special teams play a huge part in that. They may not put up big numbers on offense, but they really do win the game with defense and special teams.

LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama are all looking more and more impressive. The LSU at Alabama game on November 5th is a huge game and the winner will be in the national championship, and probably win.

Week 4 (9/24) Helmet Stickers

This season I've stayed away from giving helmet stickers to performances against FCS opponents. That holds true for this week, but I need to mention Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz. Against UC Davis, he completed 30/40 passes for 424 yards and 7 touchdowns. And those stats all came in just the first half. Simple amazing, even if it was against UC Davis.

Robert Griffin III ² (QB, Baylor) - vs Rice. 29/33, 338 yards, 5 TDs. 6 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD. Griffin has just been amazing this year. He has the highest QB rating in the nation at 236.2, and has thrown 13 touchdowns. He has only thrown 12 incompletions. We'll see how he holds up as he begins Big 12 play next week.

LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 23 rushes, 288 yards, 2 TDs. James now leads the nation in rushing with 613 yards and has an amazing 9.4 yards per carry with 7 touchdowns. With two straight 200+ yard performances, he's back in the Heisman mix.

Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - at Maryland. 32 carries, 149 yards, 5 TDs. Pierce set a school record with his 5 touchdowns as Temple led 31-0 and thrashed Maryland 38-7. Pierce leads the nation with 12 rushing TDs through 4 games.

Kellen Moore ² (QB, Boise State) - at Toledo. 23/29, 279 yards, 4 TDs. Moore ranks third in the nation in pass efficiency (192.6 QB rating), and has thrown 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He tossed 4 TDs against a Toledo team that I thought was pretty good.

T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - at Cincinnati. 7 catches, 176 yards, 2 TDs. Graham caught TD passes of 87 and 49 and was the only NC State player to score a touchdown. He has over 100 yards receiving in each of the last 3 games.

Keith Price (QB, Washington) - vs California. 19/25, 292 yards, 3 TDs. 7 rushes, 21 yards. Price ranks 9th in pass efficiency (176.6 QB rating) and ties for most touchdowns with 14. He has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in each of his first 4 games.

Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - at Kentucky. 10 carries, 157 yards, 2 TDs. Demps has touchdown runs of 20 and 84 yards. He has been pretty hit and miss this season, but averaged 15.7 yards per carry this week in a big win on the road.

Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - at Ole Miss. 2 INTs, 26 yards. 4 tackles (4 solo), 1 pass defended. The nation's leader in interceptions got two more at important times of this game. Just after Ole Miss scored to cut it to 17-7 in the first half, they recovered an onside kick. On 2nd and 3rd down of the ensuing drive, Rambo had a pass breakup and interception. He had another interception in the final minutes as Ole Miss was driving to seal the win. Ole Miss also completed just 40% of their passes for only 149 yards.

Here are the players I've given helmet stickers to so far.

Antonio Allen (DB, South Carolina) - 1
Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1
Dwight Bentley (DB, Lousiana) - 1
Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson) - 1
Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) - 1
Nordly Capi (DL, Colorado State) - 1
Jeff Demps (RB, Florida) - 1
Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) - 1
Ja'Terian Douglas (RB, Tulsa) - 1
Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) - 1

Chris Givens (WR, Wake Forest) - 1
T.J. Graham (WR, NC State) - 1
Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 2
Chandler Harnish (QB, Northern Illinois) - 2
Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - 1
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) - 1
LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 1
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - 2
Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - 2
Case Keenum (QB, Houston) - 1
Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) - 1
Eric Page (WR, Toledo) - 1
Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - 1
Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) - 1
Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - 1
Keith Price (QB, Washington) - 1
Bacarri Rambo (DB, Georgia) - 1
Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) - 1
Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1
Jordan White (WR, Western Michigan) - 1
Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State) - 1
Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) - 2

Robert Woods (WR, USC) - 1

Week 4 (9/24) Rankings

It's so hard to rank some teams this early in the season. But here are my rankings:

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma State
6. Nebraska
7. Stanford
8. Clemson
9. Oregon
10. Boise State
11. Georgia Tech
12. South Carolina
13. Baylor
14. Virginia Tech
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Texas
18. South Florida
19. Washington
20. Penn State
21. Texas A&M
22. Illinois
23. Florida State
24. Arizona State
25. Temple

Week 4 (9/24) Picks

Last week I was 23-6, making it 71-11 overall. I missed the game of the week, and I'm 2-1 in the games of the week. Some of the good were LSU shutting down Mississippi State's run game and winning with defense, Nebraska scoring a lot of points in a big win over Washington, and San Diego State RB Ronnie Hillman having a big game in a win over Washington State (he had 191 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns). Some of the bad were picking Toledo to upset Boise State, picking Tennessee to upset Florida, and picking Ohio State to beat Miami along with a couple others. I've only got one pick that could be considered an upset this week.

San Diego State at #22 Michigan - At home, Michigan should be able to out-rush Ronnie Hillman and get the win.
North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech - Should be another big week for the GT ground game.
Portland State at #20 TCU - Not even close here.
#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama - Alabama's defense will get a stop to win this close game.
South Dakota at #6 Wisconsin - Another blowout for Wisconsin.
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M - Weeden to Blackmon is the difference in this shootout.
#11 Florida State at #21 Clemson - Florida State's defense shuts down Clemson and cruises to a victory.
#13 Virginia Tech at Marshall - Marshall is pretty bad on offense. They won't score more than 7 points.
Western Michigan at #24 Illinois - This one will be closer than most people think.
Colorado at Ohio State - Colorado has lost 19 straight games on the road. Make it 20.
UCLA at Oregon State - Getting James Rodgers back will give OSU a boost and help them win the game.
California at Washington - Washington bounces back at home with a win over shaky Cal.
Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina - Vanderbilt will struggle to score and SC won't turn the ball over much.
#15 Florida at Kentucky - Kentucky struggled with Western Kentucky. Enough said.
Rice at #17 Baylor - Another big game for Griffin against a terrible defense.
UTEP at #18 South Florida - UTEP is really bad this year. It won't even be close.
Florida Atlantic at Auburn - FAU is another really bad team. Auburn will bounce back before a big losing streak.
#9 Nebraska at Wyoming - Laramie can be tricky sometimes, but Nebraska won't have any trouble.
Missouri at #1 Oklahoma - Missouri is a really good football team, but they got dissected by ASU on the road. The same will happen at OU.
#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia - This is a hard game for me to pick. But I'll go with LSU's defense.
Tulsa at #4 Boise State - I'm not picking against BSU again until at least late October.
#10 Oregon at Arizona - Arizona is too one-dimensional on offense to score enough point to make this a game.
#23 USC at Arizona State - Osweiler has time to throw and Burfict gets in Barkley's head, leading them to an upset at home.

Game of the Week - #7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M

The Big 12 has been looking a lot better than I thought it would this year with only 10 teams, and soon to be 9. This week, one team will get a big advantage as #7 Oklahoma State plays at #8 Texas A&M. #1 Oklahoma looks to be in control of the conference, but OSU gets OU at home on December 3 and Texas A&M travels to OU on November 5. The winner of this game will get an advantage of a tie-breaker in case that happens, or if the winner can win the rest of their conference games and knock of Oklahoma. I think OSU has the better chance of that, but we'll see what happens.

Neither team has played very tough competition, but Oklahoma State has the edge in strength of schedule because they beat Arizona (thought it was at home) and they played at Tulsa in a game that started after midnight due to delay. Already playing one road game will help OSU as they go on the road here, although their road game didn't take them outside the state and the Tulsa crowd won't be anywhere near what the Texas A&M crowd will be on Saturday. Texas A&M leads the series 17-8, but Oklahoma State has won the last 3. The teams have played every year since 1996, and Texas A&M leads the series in that time 10-5. The last two games have been decided by 3 and 5 points, and the last time this was played at College Station Zac Robinson was playing QB for OSU and they were without top WR Dez Bryant, but OSU led almost the entire second half and won 36-31.

Oklahoma State has been putting up big numbers in the passing game. They currently lead the nation with 408 YPG through the air, and are second in total offense (601 YPG) and third in scoring offense (52.3 PPG). RB Joseph Randle in 10th in rushing (126 YPG) and has gone over 100 yards and scored at least 2 touchdowns in each game, with a total of 7 touchdowns. Only three players have more rushing touchdowns on the season. Against Arizona, Randle also had 9 catches for 99 yards, so he can be a factor in the receiving game as well. Oklahoma State is only 37th in rushing with 193 YPG, but they'll want to establish the run early to make it easier for QB Brandon Weeden to throw the ball. Weeden in second in passing yards (370.3 YPG) but is only 27th in efficiency (157.5 QB rating). His main problem is interceptions, as he has thrown 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. However, he leads the nation in pass attempts (131) and he has completed 72.5% of those passes. Ironically, his worst game of the season was the opener against Louisiana-Lafayette where he only completed 61.5% of his passes threw 3 interceptions. He has improved since then.

Oklahoma State's defense has struggled a bit through three games. They're ranked 82nd in rush defense (171.3 YPG), 84th in pass defense (242.3 YPG), 92nd in total defense (413.7 YPG), and 76th in scoring defense (27 PPG). Their pass efficiency is much better though, ranking 37th at 110.5 QB rating for their opponents. They also have a +1 average turnover margin, which is good enough to tie for 17th in the country. The defense is averaging 3 sacks per game, so they'll need to make sure they can get some pressure on the QB.

Texas A&M, on the other hand, has been less explosive on offense but played better defense statistically. However, they've only played two games which have been against SMU and Idaho. It's hard to put much stock into their stats, but there are a couple of important things to point out. Texas A&M leads the nation in sacks (5.5 per game) and is one of only 5 teams that has not yet allowed a sack. That's impressive, especially considering that Texas A&M throws they ball a lot. They rank 18th in pass offense (311.5 YPG), 18th in total offense (487.5 YPG), and 17th in scoring offense (41.5 PPG). QB Ryan Tannehill has been efficient, too, completing 72.3% of his passes and has thrown 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception.

The Texas A&M has done a good job keeping their first two opponents from putting many points on the board, ranking 9th in scoring defense allowing 10.5 points per game. However, their opponents haven't been great. If you take out SMU's and Idaho's games against Texas A&M, SMU ties for 45th in scoring offense (34 PPG) and Idaho ranks 65th (29.5 PPG). That includes one FCS opponent for each team. So while Texas A&M hasn't allowed many points, their competition has been pretty low.

Oklahoma State has more and better play makers in Weeden, Randle, and WR Justin Blackmon. Texas A&M won't be able to match that with Tannehill, RB Cyrus Gray, and WR Ryan Swope/Jeff Fuller. Fuller is similar to Blackmon physically, but it's hard for any receiver to match the talent that Blackmon has. A&M looks to have a better defense, but after such easy competition it's hard to tell.

The big story here is going to be how the Texas A&M lines perform on both sides of the ball. If they can stop the run and make Oklahoma State more one-dimensional, they'll have a good chance to keep the scoring lower. If this turns into a shootout, OSU will have a big advantage. A&M has four players in the top-50 in sacks (.75+ sacks per game), and three of those are lineman with the other being a linebacker. They'll need to play a complete game as a defensive unit. The line needs to slow the run and get pressure on Weeden with those sacks, but the secondary also needs to be able to slow down Blackmon and confuse Weeden into throwing some bad passes. The offensive line will also be important as they've yet to allow a sack. If they can give Tannehill time, they should be able to throw the ball pretty well on Oklahoma State. OSU dominated the Arizona offensive line and made it really tough for AZ QB Nick Foles to complete passes, but A&M's line is much better.

The key for Oklahoma State is going to be to get off to a fast start. In each of their first three games, they've scored at least 10 points in the first quarter and had a 21+ point lead at halftime. Especially with the loud A&M crowd, they'll need to get points early and establish control on the road. OSU can score faster that most teams in the country, so they want this to be a high scoring shootout where they'll likely have an advantage.

I think this is going to be a close but sloppy game. Texas A&M will get after Weeden and he'll make some mistakes, but A&M's soft early schedule will cause them to not play mistake-free in their first big game. I'm going to go with the play makers of Oklahoma State in a close one.

My pick is Oklahoma State 43, Texas A&M 35.

Week 4 (9/24) Preview

There are a few games to choose from for the game of the week, but I think #7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M will be the most important going down the stretch, as they seem like the two best teams to challenge #1 Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

On Saturday morning, San Diego State plays at #22 Michigan, and this game is intriguing as Michigan head coach Brady Hoke plays against his old team. Both teams are 3-0 and have one somewhat impressive win as SDSU beat Washington State and Michigan beat Notre Dame. Both teams rush the ball well and struggle to stop the run. Michigan is 13th in rushing offense (245 YPG) and 103rd in rushing defense (202.5 YPG) while San Diego State is 24th in rushing offense (220.7 YPG) and 98th in rushing defense (197 YPG). Both teams have a big playmaker in the backfield, with Michigan QB Denard Robinson and SDSU RB Ronnie Hillman. Robinson is 3rd in rushing (153 YPG) and Hillman is 2nd (165.7 YPG). It should be a fun game to watch and interesting to see if San Diego State can play well on the road against a bigger team.

We'll get an idea of how good #25 Georgia Tech is this weekend. They lead the nation in total offense (675.3 YPG), rushing offense (427.7 YPG), and scoring offense (59.3 PPG). Those numbers are just ridiculous. They host North Carolina, who has the 16th best rush defense (76.7 YPG) and are only allowing 16.3 PPG.

#14 Arkansas plays at #3 Alabama. Alabama is second in scoring defense (6 PPG) and in the top 5 in all major defensive categories (rush - 4th, pass - 5th, total - 3rd, pass eff - 2nd). It helps that they've played two awful offenses in Kent State and North Texas, but they also played at Penn State. They also have two rushers averaging just over 100 yards with RB Trent Richardson and RB Eddie Lacy. Arkansas, on the other hand, has the 8th best passing offense (346.7 YPG) and the 8th best scoring offense (47 PPG). Despite the big numbers, QB Tyler Wilson only has 5 TDs and 2 INTs. He's going to need to have a huge game to be able to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Alabama defense will be very tough to crack and the Arkansas receivers will need to play physical to be able to get open. In the game last year at Arkansas, they led 20-7 late in the third quarter but Alabama came back to win 24-20. They'll come out with a fire trying to get revenge, but I'm not sure that's enough to beat one of the top defensive units in the country.

#11 Florida State looks to rebound this week at #21 Clemson. It's the first conference game for both teams and will give the winner an advantage in the Atlantic division race as they look to be the top two teams. Clemson has been racking up a lot of yards on offense, and Florida State has been playing tough defense. Clemson ranks 9th in total offense (522.6 YPG) with a balanced attack, ranking 27th in rushing (216.7 YPG) and 21st in passing (306 YPG). FSU is 5th in total defense (195 YPG), 17th in rushing defense (77 YPG), and 6th in passing defense (118 YPG). Last week, they held Oklahoma QB Landry Jones to 199 yards and picked him off twice. I thought FSU would be pretty unstoppable on offense and just good enough on defense, but the defense has been playing incredible so far. On the road against Clemson in the late afternoon can be tough, but I think we'll see Clemson implode a bit as they won't be able to move the ball at all against the FSU defense. They have great stats because they've played three awful defenses - Troy (109th), Wofford (85th in FCS), and Auburn (117th). FSU's is worlds better than any of those defenses, and will be the reason they control the game and eventually win the division.

#2 LSU will attempt to cool down QB Geno Smith when they travel to #16 West Virginia. This is their second big non-conference game, as they beat Oregon opening week. LSU's defense has been stellar the last two games, especially last week against Mississippi State. They rank 3rd in rushing defense (47.7 YPG), 19th in passing defense (160 YPG), 6th in total defense (207.7 YPG), and 15th in scoring defense (12 PPG). Oregon scored 27 points on them, but the last two teams have combined for 9 points. West Virginia ranks 7th in passing offense (356 YPG) and Smith has thrown 7 TDs and 1 INT while completing almost 70% of his passes. He'll need to have more of that to upset LSU at home. This is a late night game in Morgantown, with kickoff at 8:00 PM local time. West Virginia has won 16 of the last 17 at home, and LSU has won their last 35 non-conference regular season games. I actually think WVU has a chance here at home with new head coach Dana Holgorsen and Smith throwing the ball well. They'll need to have a flawless game to be able to get the win. I picked WVU to win the Big East and the offense has been playing well so far. The defense stopped a Maryland comeback late in the 4th quarter last week to hold on for a win on the road. If WVU can upset LSU, they'll shoot into the top 10 and probably be 10-0 going into their final two games against Pittsburgh (home) and South Florida (away).

One last game to quickly mention is #23 USC at Arizona State in what figures to be a big Pac-12 South matchup. Arizona State has had two tight games, winning in overtime vs Missouri and losing by 3 at Illinois. USC cannot advance to the conference championship, but a win for ASU would give them a good start in the division and an advantage over Utah. If USC wins, they'll be 2-0 in the conference and have wins over Utah and ASU and likely be at the top of the division when the season ends.

Here are the games I would like to watch some of this weekend:

Friday 6:00 - UCF at BYU (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - San Diego State at #22 Michigan (BTN)
10:00 - North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech (ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - #14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama (CBS)
1:30 - #7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M (ABC, ESPN3)
1:30 - #11 Florida State at #21 Clemson (ESPN, ESPN3)
5:00 - Florida Atlantic at Auburn (ESPN3)
6:00 - Missouri at #1 Oklahoma (FX)
6:00 - #2 LSU at #16 West Virginia (ABC)
8:15 - #10 Oregon at Arizona (ESPN2, ESPN3)
8:15 - #23 USC at Arizona State (ESPN, ESPN3)

Week 3 (9/17) Thoughts

Well, Utah had a good week against rival BYU. I said the game would be decided by the rushing game and turnovers. In fact, if you read the last paragraph of the preview, it's exactly what happened (except for Utah not scoring many points). Utah held BYU to 11 rushing yards on 22 carries, got a lot of pressure on Heaps, and forced SEVEN turnovers. And you could really see in the second half that BYU's defense was worn out and they gave up early. Utah rushed for 242 yards, lead by John White who had 22 carries for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wynn continues to improve, but it's obvious that his shoulder isn't what it was before. His release point is lower and he doesn't have the same zip on the ball. He did have his first turnover of the season, but it was a nearly flawless game for Utah. Now, Utah's 2-1 and has no major injuries going into a bye week before two big home conference games against Washington and Arizona State. Those games will tell a lot about this season, as the BYU win means nothing if Utah starts 0-3 in conference.

I was extremely impressed with #3 LSU's defense against #25 Mississippi State in the 19-6 win. I thought their defense would shut down the MSU running game, and they did just that. They held them to just 52 yards rushing on 34 carries. MSU had rushed for over 300 yards in each of the previous two games. LSU looks like a real contender for Alabama in the SEC West. That game on November 5 will be huge, and it is in Tuscaloosa. Both teams have a bye the previous week. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has started 0-2 in the SEC and their next two conference games are against Georgia and South Carolina.

I'm starting to be a believer in #4 Boise State. I thought Toledo was a good team and they flat out stomped them on the road. The score was 40-15 and they outgained them 610-349. Okay, maybe BSU is for real this year. Their biggest remaining test is when they play vs TCU and at San Diego State back-to-back in November.

One of these days, Auburn might start playing defense. They've allowed 38, 34, and 38 points and been outgained by at least 80 yards in every game, yet they're 2-1. The defensive numbers are just atrocious. They're 116th in rush defense (266 YPG), 100th in pass defense (268.3 YPG), 100th in pass efficiency defense (144.9), 117th in total defense (534.3 YPG), and 107th in scoring defense (36.7 PPG). I knew their defense would struggle, but this is just pathetic. They're next game is Florida Atlantic, and then they play at South Carolina, at Arkansas, vs Florida, and at LSU in consecutive weeks without a bye. Hoping for 4-4 is pretty optimistic. They could very well be 3-5 with Georgia and Alabama left on the schedule. I think they'll be able to upset one of those 6 SEC opponents and with FAU, Samford, and Ole Miss (all home games) on the schedule, they'll be 6-6 and go to a bowl game. But even that might not happen.

#23 TCU is struggling to handle the spread offense. Baylor ripped apart their defense and Lousiana-Monroe scored 17 first quarter points, leading 17-14 at the end of the first. TCU settled down and cruised to a 38-17 victory, but it was a shaky start for the defense.

Either #23 Texas is back on track, or UCLA is even worse than I thought. UCLA QB Kevin Prince completed 3 passes to the offense, and 3 passes to the defense. Then they switched to Richard Brehaut, but the score was already 21-0. UCLA will probably help Colorado avoid the Pac-12 South basement in their first year in the conference.

The biggest game of the week was #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State. FSU QB EJ Manuel threw 2 interceptions before leaving the game with an injury. Clint Trickett did a decent job taking over, throwing for 134 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The Oklahoma defense controlled the game, holding Florida State to just 27 yards rushing on 26 carries and also forced 3 turnovers and 6 sacks. The OU offense wasn't spectacular, but they were good enough to put some points on the board and the defense took care of the rest. Oklahoma will be challenged late in the season, as 3 of their last 4 games are against Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Those will be fun games to watch as the OU defense tries to shut down those offenses. The Big 12 is looking better than I thought they would, and Oklahoma may not be undefeated at the end of the season. But if they can get through that late gauntlet, they'll be playing in the national championship against the winner of the Alabama/LSU game on November 5 (which is also the day Oklahoma plays Texas A&M).

It's hard to say who the favorite is right now, but there seems to be a group of three teams who are above everyone else. They are also ranked #1 through #3 and play extremely good defense. They are Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama. I could see any of those teams winning the championship this year. And unless there are some upsets, it will probably look that way until November. If Wisconsin beats Nebraska on October 1, they'll probably join that group, but the rest of their schedule is somewhat soft with the Big Ten fading. The other team that could join the top group is Stanford, and we'll know a lot more about then on November 12 when they play vs Oregon, assuming they win at USC on October 29.

Week 3 (9/17) Helmet Stickers

Here are this week's helmet stickers.

Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) - at New Mexico. 40/44, 401 yards, 5 TDs. Doege completed an amazing 90.9% of his passes, which is an NCAA record for QBs throwing 40 or more passes in a game.

Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State) - at San Diego State. 6 catches, 236 yards, 2 TDs. Wilson averaged 39.3 yards per catch on 6 catches, including touchdown grabs of 78 and 80 yards. Wilson has 15 catches on the season and is averaging 28.6 YPC with 4 touchdowns.

Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) ² - vs Navy. 37 carries, 246 yards, 3 TDs. 4 catches, 25 yards. Lattimore had another stellar game. The sophomore has 7 touchdowns on the year and is averaging almost 30 carries a game.

Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) ² - at Northern Illinois. 23/32, 347 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. 5 carries, 37 yards. Wilson has been much improved at Wisconsin (but has yet to play a very good opponent). He has completed 75% of his passes this season.

Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - vs Washington State. 32 carries, 191 yards, 4 TDs. 2 catches, 31 yards. 2 of Hillman's 4 touchdowns came in the 4th quarter as SDSU took the lead and pulled away. He's also only a sophomore.

Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson) - vs Auburn. 30/42, 386 yards, 4 TDs. 7 carries, 30 yards. Boyd has thrown 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception this season. He was practically flawless against Auburn, beating them with his arm and legs.

Ja'Terian Douglas (RB, Tulsa) - vs Oklahoma State. 12 rushes, 173 yards, 2 TDs. Have to give both teams a lot of credit for playing a delayed game that didn't end up starting until after midnight. Douglas averaged 14.4 yards per carry on 12 rushes.

Jordan White (WR, Western Michigan) - vs Central Michigan. 13 catches, 77 yards, 2 TDs. White also had a 64 yard punt return to the CMU 4 yard line, setting up a 4-yard TD pass in the first quarter.

Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - at Toledo. 34/42, 455 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT. Moore completely ripped apart the Toledo defense for 5 touchdowns, bringing the season total to 8 through just 2 games.

And here are the current totals for helmet stickers on the season.

Antonio Allen (DB, South Carolina) - 1
Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1
Dwight Bentley (DB, Lousiana) - 1
Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson) - 1
Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) - 1
Nordly Capi (DL, Colorado State) - 1
Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) - 1
Ja'Terian Douglas (RB, Tulsa) - 1
Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) - 1

Chris Givens (WR, Wake Forest) - 1
Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 1
Chandler Harnish (QB, Northern Illinois) - 2
Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - 1
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) - 1
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - 2
Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - 1
Case Keenum (QB, Houston) - 1
Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) - 1
Eric Page (WR, Toledo) - 1
Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - 1
Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) - 1
Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) - 1
Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1
Jordan White (WR, Western Michigan) - 1
Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State) - 1
Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) - 2

Robert Woods (WR, USC) - 1

Utah at BYU Preview

Well, I feel pretty stupid for picking Toledo to upset Boise State. They got blown out 40-15 and allowed over 600 yards passing. But I was right about LSU's defense shutting down Mississippi State's run game. Now, on to Utah's game this week.

It's weird to have the Utah/BYU rivalry game in September. It's also weird to not really care about the game more than any other game, it just feels like another non-conference game.

Both teams have really struggled so far offensively. Utah is only 75th in rushing (136 YPG), 95th in passing (169.5 YPG), 97th in total offense (305.5 YPG), and 93rd in scoring offense (20.5 PPG). BYU is even worse, ranking 113th in rushing offense (67 YPG), 76th in passing offense (208.5 YPG), 108th in total offense (275.5 YPG), and 107th in scoring offense (15 PPG). BYU has played a bit tougher competition, playing at Ole Miss and at Texas. Utah played Montana State but they did play at USC, so that might even out the competition a little bit.

On defense, both teams have been mediocre but BYU's pass defense has been pretty good. Utah ranks 46th in rushing defense (113.5 YPG), 66th in passing defense (223.5 YPG), 45th in total defense (337 YPG), and 34th in scoring defense (16.5 PPG). BYU ranks 48th in rushing defense (115 YPG), 16th in passing defense (113.5 YPG), 22nd in total defense (248.5 YPG), and 29th in scoring defense (15 PPG). Utah's scoring defense could actually be considered better, since the touchdown on a blocked field goal against USC ended up counting, so it's really more like 13.5 PPG.

I see Utah having an edge in a couple important categories. Utah has been able to run the ball quite a bit better than BYU, and the team that lead the game in rushing has won the last two games in the series. It seems that the team that controls the line of scrimmage better almost always wins this game. Utah's defensive front will give BYU a lot of trouble running the ball. Utah may not run the ball extremely well, but it might be just good enough to give them a pretty good edge.

The other area where Utah has the edge is taking care of the football. Another important statistic in this rivalry is turnovers. The team that wins the turnover battle has won the game the last three years. Utah has only turned the ball over once, and they average +2 in turnovers per game. BYU has turned the ball over 3 times (all interceptions), and they average +.5 in turnovers per game. If Utah can come up with a couple key turnovers, that will give them a big edge.

With both teams really struggling on offense so far this year, this could be a pretty low scoring game. Or maybe one or both teams will find their stride offensively. Or maybe the defense will create some turnovers that give the offense easy points and there will be more points scored. I think there will be a couple turnovers, but it will be a pretty low scoring game. The matchup here will Utah's defensive front shutting down the run and getting pressure on BYU QB Jake Heaps. I think they're up to it, and they'll keep BYU's defense on the field and wear them down in the second half.

My pick is Utah 20, BYU 17.

Game of the Week - #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State

The game of the week is pretty obvious, as #1 Oklahoma travels to #5 Florida State. I still believe that the winner of this game is going to be playing in the National Championship.

They played last year in Oklahoma, and OU stomped FSU 47-17. The score was 44-7 after three quarters, but even that was a little bit misleading. Oklahoma only outgained Florida State 487-345 and FSU had 3 turnovers and 12 penalties, while OU had 1 turnover and just 6 penalties. The two interceptions thrown by FSU were on consecutive possessions and gave OU the ball inside the 30-yard line, resulting in 10 quick points. That was in the second half when Oklahoma already had a lead, but it allowed then to put the game away in the third quarter.

Oklahoma didn't run the ball well in the first game (RB DeMarco Murray averaged 3.2 YPC), but WR Ryan Broyles had 12 catches for 124 yards. Murray is gone, but Broyles is back. QB Landry Jones completed 30/40 passes for 380 yards and 4 TDs. They won't be able to stop Jones this time around, but they've got to at least slow him down.

Florida State returns 8 starters from a decent defense last year that ranked 42nd in total defense (353.7 YPG) and 20th in scoring defense (19.6 PPG). I realize they haven't played anybody yet (ULM and Charleston Southern), but that's the same as a number of teams. Through two games they're 3rd in total defense (137.5 YPG) and 4th in scoring defense (5.0 PPG). They held Charleston Southern to no first downs and 8 yards on 22 plays in the first half. They obviously won't be able to have the same performance this week, but they'll need to play with the same fire and come up with some big plays.

Oklahoma returns 8 starters on offense, and they ranked 10th in total offense (481.4 YPG) and 14th in scoring offense (37.2 PPG). They lost RB DeMarco Murray who ranked 40th in rushing (86.7 YPG) last year, but they do have WR Ryan Broyles back, who ranked 3th in receiving (115.9 YPG). In OU's only game so far this season (vs Tulsa), Broyles caught 14 passes for 158 yards and 1 TD. They got great performances from their two RBs, Brennan Clay (14 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD) and Dominique Whaley (18 carries, 131 yards, 4 TDs). Clay started the game, but they alternated drives and Whaley had the better game. FSU will have their hands full.

Florida State returns 8 starters on offense, and they were mediocre last year, ranking 60th in total offense (381.3 YPG) and 33rd in scoring offense (31.4 PPG). The biggest struggle will be replacing QB Christian Ponder, but E.J. Manuel played some last year and through two games has completed 46/69 passes for 581 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs. Manuel will need to have a good game against OU's defense, who returned 8 starters.

I see two main keys for Florida State to win this game. First, they need to take care of the football. They can't afford to turn the ball over or make other mistakes that give Oklahoma a short field. Second, they need to run the ball well. Oklahoma's offense is high-powered and if FSU can hold on to the ball and move down the field slowly and methodically, it will help keep them off the field and out of sync. They've got a few RBs who have run the ball quite a bit already. Freshman RB James Wilder Jr has 10 carries for 76 yards, Chris Thompson has 12 carries for 54 yards and 1 TD, Devonta Freeman has 13 carries for 39 yards and 1 TD, and QB EJ Manuel has 10 carries for 30 yards (which includes 3 sacks).

This game might take a couple quarters to get going, but I think that Florida State will eventually establish the running game and begin to control the line of scrimmage to take control of the game. The defense will come out flying and shut down the Oklahoma offense early, so we might not see any points from either team in the first quarter. But after that, both teams will settle down and it will be a great game that comes right down to the end.

My pick is Florida State 33, Oklahoma 31.

Week 3 (9/17) Picks

Last week I was 23-3, making it 48-5 overall. Some of the good picks were Toledo keeping it close with Ohio State, Oregon starting fast, USC winning a close game with a late Utah mistake, and Denard Robinson winning the game late for Michigan. The bad were Air Force upsetting TCU, Colorado upsetting California, UCLA rolling over San Jose State, and Virginia Tech handily beating East Carolina. The picks will start getting harder as less teams are playing cupcakes.

#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State - LSU's defense is going to control this game and Mississippi State will really struggle to run the ball. The short week will hurt MSU.
#4 Boise State at Toledo - Yep, I'm picking Toledo to upset a top-5 team. This is on the road, at Toledo, at night. And I just don't think Boise State is that great. Plus they'll be distracted with the recent NCAA punishment.
#18 West Virginia at Maryland - I almost want to pick Maryland here, but I think RB Tavon Austin will have a big return day and QB Geno Smith will throw the ball well in a good win.
#21 Auburn at Clemson - If this was at night, I'd be picking Clemson. But during the day, Death Valley is a lot less scary and Auburn wins another close game.
Eastern Michigan at Michigan - Michigan will blow them out.
Colorado State vs Colorado - After a couple tough losses, Colorado will get their first win of the season.
Louisiana-Monroe at #23 TCU - ULM is coming off a big win over Grambling State, but they also got shut out at FSU. TCU won't shut them out, but they won't score many points.
#7 Wisconsin vs Northern Illinois - Someone finally slows down NIU QB Chandler Harnish, but this won't be a blowout. Wisconsin by a couple touchdowns.
Washington at #11 Nebraska - This will be a high scoring game for Nebraska. It won't be very close.
Missouri State at #12 Oregon - The game will be over before kickoff. Not really, but Oregon will score over 60.
#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame - Michigan State's defense played tough last week, but Notre Dame is much better than Florida Atlantic. ND will rebound from the tough Michigan loss with a win here.
Tennessee at #16 Florida - Tyler Bray is going to have a big game and they'll beat Florida for the first time since 2004.
#23 Texas at UCLA - UCLA had an atrocious showing against San Jose State last week, so I'm picking against them.
Arkansas State at #13 Virginia Tech - This time VT will win it big, unlike last week.
Presbyterian at California - Easy win for Cal.
Navy at #10 South Carolina - Marcus Lattimore will help his Heisman campaign with a big performance against Navy.
Washington State at San Diego State - SDSU struggled against Army last week, but they're a good team and they're at home. RB Ronnie Hillman will be the difference.
Idaho at #9 Texas A&M - QB Ryan Tannehill shouldn't have a problem throwing the ball on Idaho.
Stephen F. Austin at #19 Baylor - Expect QB Robert Griffin III to have a huge day running and throwing the ball.
Florida A&M at #20 South Florida - USF RB Darrell Scott gained 2.8 yards per carry against Notre Dame, and 7.5 against Ball State. It will be closer to 7.5 and he'll go over 100 yards on the way to a victory here.
#22 Arizona State at Illinois - This will be an exciting, close game. ASU WR Aaron Pflugrad will be the difference with a couple big catches.
North Texas at #2 Alabama - North Texas will probably score 10 points (after halftime), but Alabama will walk all over them.
Troy at #14 Arkansas - Arkansas is playing well but Troy put up 423 yards on Clemson. Expect Troy to keep it close for a while but then they'll start turning the ball over and Arkansas will pull away fast.
#17 Ohio State at Miami (FL) - Both teams coming off disappointing performances, but OSU is the better team. On the road, it will be a close win.
#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State - FSU's defense has been better than I thought they'd be. They'll need to run the ball to get a win, and Tulsa rushed for 4.2 YPC so I think FSU will be able to. This game being at FSU gives them the win.
Syracuse at USC - Syracuse will not have an answer for WR Robert Woods.
Utah at BYU - This will come down to the last play, and I have to pick Utah to make the play.
#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa - Tulsa improved last week, but QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon are going to be way too much for them.
#6 Stanford at Arizona - Luck will probably struggle early on, but then find a rhythm and pull away from Arizona.

Week 3 (9/17) Preview

There are a couple of big games this weekend, and one HUGE game that will have national championship implications. That one game is #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State. Now that we're a couple weeks into the season, I'll start doing a game of the week after the preview. Obviously, that will be the game of the week this time around.

On Thursday night, we've got a rare weeknight SEC matchup. #3 LSU plays at #25 Mississippi State. In fact, other than opening weekend, this is the only SEC game on a Thursday. The big matchup here will be Mississippi State's rush offense against LSU's rush defense. LSU is 8th in the nation in rush defense (45.5 YPG), and that includes a game against Oregon. Sure, it was against Northwestern State, but LSU held them to -4 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Mississippi State is 6th in the nation in rush offense (321 YPG), and they ran the ball 63 times for 333 yards against Auburn last week. LSU's offense isn't too good, but the defense puts them in great position with short fields and adds points too. If MSU can have a decent day running the ball, then they will have a chance to win this game since it is a night game at home. But if Oregon could only rush for 95 yards (3.4 YPC) on LSU, how will MSU get many more yards? Plus, this is a short week and Mississippi State is coming off a very tough, phyical loss to Auburn.

#4 Boise State travels to Toledo on Friday night. You might think this will be a blowout, but I'll tell you it won't be. It will be tough for Toledo to win, but they're a decent football team this year and I think BSU is overrated. Toledo almost beat Ohio State last week, but failed to convert on 4th down late in the 4th quarter in the 27-22 loss. Toledo has a balanced offense with two QBs, but OSU held them to just 46 yards rushing. If they want to have a shot at knocking off Boise State, they need to have a more powerful rushing attack. Boise State is coming off a bye week after beating Georgia (who is now 0-2). BSU might end up being pretty good, but I'm not ready to buy in just yet. If they blow out Toledo on the road to follow up their win against UGA in Atlanta, I'll start being a believer.

#21 Auburn plays at Clemson, who is 2-0 after walking over Troy and struggling with Wofford. Clemson struggled to stop the Wofford rushing attack, who ran the ball 57 times for 272 yards. They had three rushers with 10+ carries (who all ran for over 50 yards). Auburn should be able to exploit that weakness and have success running the ball. But, which Auburn team will we see? Will it be the team that got outplayed by Utah State but miraculously squeaked out a win or the team that dominated Mississippi State physically? Plus, this is a road game for Auburn. It will probably come down to the wire again.

I'll focus on the Utah/BYU and OU/FSU games later, but here are a few other quick notes.

Washington travels to #11 Nebraska. The two teams met twice last year and split the series. But, this game is in Lincoln, and Washington doesn't stand a chance.

#23 Texas travels to struggling UCLA, who lost at Houston in opening week and struggled with San Jose State last week. If UCLA can combine their offense from Houston with their defense from SJSU, they might be able to upset Texas at home.

Washington State at San Diego State will be a measuring stick for both teams. WSU is leading the nation in scoring offense and is putting up huge numbers throwing the ball without their starting QB.

#22 Arizona State has another test as they travel to Illinois this week. Illinois has looked good against bad competition, but another non-conference win pushing ASU to 3-0 would give them a great start before opening conference play with USC.

Here are the games I want to watch at least some of.

Thursday 6:00 - #3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 6:00 - #4 Boise State at Toledo (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - #18 West Virginia at Maryland (ESPNU)
10:00 - #21 Auburn at Clemson (ABC)
10:00 - Eastern Michigan at Michigan (BTN)
12:00 - Louisiana-Monroe at #23 TCU (The Mtn)
1:30 - Washington at #11 Nebraska (ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - #23 Texas at UCLA (ABC, ESPN3)
4:00 - UCF at Florida International (ESPN3)
4:30 - Washington State at San Diego State (The Mtn)
5:00 - #22 Arizona State at Illinois (BTN)
6:00 - #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State (ABC)
7:15 - Utah at BYU (ESPN2, ESPN3)
8:45 - #6 Stanford at Arizona (ESPN, ESPN3)

Week 2 (9/10) Thoughts

Well, it has been 3 days, and the loss to USC still stings. However, Utah played pretty well and was in position to take USC to overtime on the road. That's saying something about the team. It should be a bowl season, and possibly even a chance to play in the conference championship, depending on how other things go. I'm a lot less worried about the Arizona game, after watching their offensive line struggle all game against Oklahoma State. I'm not going to write a whole about this week, but here are some quick notes.

Weeden to Blackmon can be virtually unstoppable at times. See OSU's first three drives. Wow, it was impressive.

Arizona State WR Aaron Pflugrad is so exciting to watch. He's very explosive and just gets so excited about every play he makes.

Once again, Michigan QB Denard Robinson crushed Notre Dame. The final touchdown was scored with 2 seconds remaining and it was one of the most exciting finishes I've ever seen. Michigan is 2-0 and the next 4 games are vs Eastern Michigan, vs San Diego State, vs Minnesota, and at Northwestern. There's a chance Michigan starts 6-0.

Michigan State's defense is good. Sure, they played Florida Atlantic. But they got a shutout and only allowed 1 first down and 48 total yards.

Toledo is looking good. Their offense played extremely well against New Hampshire. This week they were on the verge of upsetting Ohio State but couldn't convert on 4th down. This week they get Boise State at home. There's potential for an upset there.

If you like ball control offense, check out Army. Against San Diego State, they had the ball for 42 minutes and outgained SDSU 446-292. But, they still lost.

Mississippi State ran 97 plays against Auburn. They gained 531 yards which is only about 5.5 yards per play. Auburn got a nice defensive stop at the end of the game to win by 7.

Oregon really bounced back from the tough loss against LSU. Against Nevada, they scored 4 second quarter TDs and were up 41-7 at the half. QB Darron Thomas threw 6 touchdown passes.

Washington State is leading the country in scoring and putting up impressive numbers against bad competition. But they're doing it without QB Jeff Tuel. This week they had 664 yards against UNLV. They have played bad teams, but easily won twice. It will be interesting to see where their season goes.

Memphis and Oregon State are surprisingly bad. Memphis got blown out by Arkansas State this week, 47-3. Oregon State lost to Sacramento State (Sac St was up 21-6 at the half, and the game went into OT).

Looking ahead to this week, I can't wait for #1 Oklahoma vs #5 Florida State!

Week 2 (9/10) Helmet Stickers

There were some big passing games this week. A number of QBs and WRs had great games.

Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) – vs Cincinnati. 34/41, 405 yards, 4 TDs. Bray had another great game. Through two games, he has completed 78.5% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and no interceptions.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) – at Louisville. 7 catches, 201 yards (28.3 YPC), 2 TDs. Hilton led the way for FIU as they upset Louisville. He also returned kickoffs.

Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) – vs California. 11 catches, 284 yards (25.8 YPC), 2 TDs. Richardson caught touchdown passes of 66 and 78 yards. He has caught a total of 4 touchdown passes in the first two games of his sophomore season.

Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) – vs Missouri. 24/31, 353 yards, 3 TDs. 5 carries, 34 yards, 1 TD. Osweiler was the difference maker for ASU against a tough Missouri defense. He was making plays with his legs, too, including one touchdown run.

Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) – at Georgia. 27 carries, 176 yards (6.5 YPC), 1 TD. Lattimore helped the struggling passing game by having a lot of success on the ground. He's the reason South Carolina was in the game down the stretch, and the defense won it for them.

Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) – vs Missouri. 8 catches, 180 yards (22.5 YPC), 2 TDs. Pflugrad is just so much fun to watch. He is very explosive and plays with such enthusiasm.

Chandler Harnish ² (QB, Northern Illinois) – at Kansas. 27/33, 315 yards, 2 TDs. 11 carries, 89 yards, 3 

TDs. Harnish was pretty much the offense and spread the ball around to 8 difference receivers (6 having multiple catches). He has thrown 7 touchdowns with 1 interception throw two games, and also rushed for 4 scores.

Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) – vs Mississippi St. 18 carries, 150 yards (8.3 YPC), 2 TDs. Dyer was the workhorse of this offense against a tough Mississippi State defense. He got Auburn off to a quick start in the first quarter.

Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) – at Tennessee. 14 carries, 155 yards (11.1 YPC), 1 TD. Pead had three carries over 20 yards, including a 65 yard touchdown. 11.1 yards per carry over 14 carries is pretty good.

Eric Page (WR, Toledo) – at Ohio State. 12 catches, 145 yards (12.1 YPC), 2 TDs. Page was the go-to guy for both Toledo quarterbacks, and help Toledo lead and almost beat Ohio State on the road.

Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) – vs Nevada. 13/19, 295 yards, 6 TDs. 3 rushes, 35 yards. Thomas threw 5 touchdowns in the first half (4 in the second quarter). He only completed 13 passes, but 6 were for touchdowns, with only one of those being less than 20 yards.

Here is the current count for Helmet Stickers after two weeks.

Antonio Allen (DB, South Carolina) - 1
Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1
Dwight Bentley (DB, Lousiana) - 1
Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) - 1
Nordly Capi (DL, Colorado State) - 1
Micheal Dyer (RB, Auburn) - 1

Chris Givens (WR, Wake Forest) - 1
Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 1
Chandler Harnish (QB, Northern Illinois) - 2
T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida International) - 1
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) - 1
Case Keenum (QB, Houston) - 1
Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State) - 1
Eric Page (WR, Toledo) - 1
Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - 1
Aaron Pflugrad (WR, Arizona State) - 1
Paul Richardson (WR, Colorado) - 1
Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1
Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) - 1

Robert Woods (WR, USC) - 1

Saturday Morning Thoughts

Well, the last two nights have been pretty exciting. Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden threw for 397 yards and 2 touchdowns in a big win over Arizona. Throwing to WR Justin Blackmon seems like a pretty unstoppable connection. Last night, Florida International upset Louisville on the road, and then Missouri came back for an overtime thriller at Arizona State. Brock Osweiler looked very good in the win.

Now, for the Utah game today. I am so torn. I really think Utah has a chance to win. But I just don't know if Utah's offense is going to be able to score points today. It will be a low scoring game, and Wynn will throw at least one interception, and probably more. Utah's defensive front will control the game, but I think USC comes away with a close win at home. My prediction is USC 13, Utah 10.

Week 2 (9/10) Picks

Well, last week I went 25-2. It was a pretty easy week to pick. Some of the good: Houston upsetting UCLA, Utah State keeping it close with Auburn, LSU beating Oregon with defense (4 turnovers), Miami (OH) keeping it close with Missouri. Some of the bad: Notre Dame breezing by USF, Fresno State upsetting Cal, Michigan struggling with Western Michigan. Now on to this week. I'll also pick all Pac-12 games.

Arizona at #9 Oklahoma State - This will be a shootout in the first half, then both teams will settle down and OSU will pull away.

#21 Missouri at Arizona State - ASU gets big nights from Osweiler and Burfict in this "upset."

Oregon State at #8 Wisconsin - Unfortunately for Oregon State, it will get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

Toledo at #15 Ohio State - Toledo is going to keep this game close for 3 1/2 quarters (and probably lead once or twice, too).

Florida Atlantic at #17 Michigan State - MSU really shouldn't have a problem here.

#16 Mississippi State at Auburn - Auburn will bounce back from last week, but lose in the final minutes.

Norfolk State at #19 West Virginia - Two cupcakes is a good way to start with a new head coach.

#3 Alabama at #23 Penn State - It will be a low scoring affair, but Alabama will be the only team in double digits.

#6 Stanford at Duke - Shouldn't be a problem for The Cardinal here.

#11 Virginia Tech at East Carolina - Virginia Tech should win this handily on the road.

Nevada at #13 Oregon - Oregon will get out to a fast start and cruise to a victory.

#25 TCU at Air Force - This could go either way, but I think Air Force will surprise TCU with a couple passes that go for touchdowns in a close win.

California at Colorado - Cal is going to blow their first trip to Boulder.

Hawaii at Washington - I'd pick whoever the home team is in this one.

#12 South Carolina at Georgia - I think Marcus Lattimore runs all over Georgia without Ogletree. Georgia is 0-2 for the first time since 1996 (started 1-4 last year).

UNLV at Washington State - Even without Tuel, WSU wins against a bad UNLV team.

Charleston Southern at #5 Florida State - Starters will be resting at halftime, getting ready for OU next week.

Fresno State at #10 Nebraska - Lots of running the ball in this game, but Nebraska wins easily.

New Mexico at #14 Arkansas - Tyler Wilson should have a fun day.

UAB at #18 Florida - Easy game for the Gators.

Ball State at #22 USF - USF should blow out the next 3 teams before travelling to Pittsburgh.

BYU at #24 Texas - I almost want to pick BYU in an upset, as this will probably be close. But I won't.

Utah at USC - Very low scoring game. But USC wins a close one as Utah turns it over late.

Northwestern State at #2 LSU - Shutout for LSU against Northwestern State.

Notre Dame at Michigan - Denard Robinson will be the difference maker in the first Michigan Stadium night game.

San Jose State at UCLA - UCLA will rack up over 600 yards in a dominating win.

Week 2 (9/10) Preview

Week 2 has some games that I'm interested to see, but no really huge games this week. There's the historic Notre Dame/Michigan game, and the inaugural Pac-12 game between Utah and USC, along with a couple other conference openers that will likely be important at the end of the season.

There will probably be some fireworks on display Thursday night when Arizona plays at #9 Oklahoma State. Against Northern Arizona, Arizona QB Nick Foles was 34/42 for 412 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no picks in a 41-10 win (it was only 14-10 at halftime). Against Louisiana, Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden was 24/39 for 388 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in a 61-34 win. The completely rebuilt offensive line of Arizona did okay, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and only allowing one sack. One thing is certain, there will be a lot of passing tomorrow night. We'll probably see over 80 passes on the night and over 800 yards passing between the two teams combined. OSU WR Justin Blackmon is going to have a big night (100+ yards receiving) and score at least one touchdown.

Friday has another key Pac-12 non-conference game, #21 Missouri at Arizona State. ASU won a warmup game against UC Davis 48-14, which Missouri struggled with a tough Miami (OH) team in a 17-6 win. It's hard to know what to take from those games, but I do think that Miami (OH) will be tough and play in the MAC championship this year. The key will be whether or not Missouri can get the offense going early, particularly the passing game, which really struggled against Miami. We could see an upset here, especially if ASU LB Vontaze Burfict has 3 sacks like he did against UC Davis.

#16 Mississippi State plays at Auburn Saturday afternoon. Auburn leads the series 56-25-3, and has won 9 out of the last 10. Last week, Mississippi State excelled on the road against a terrible Memphis team while Auburn needed a miracle at home to beat improving Utah State. Auburn should have been able to push around Utah State, but they only rushed for 78 yards on 30 carries (2.6 YPC). Compare that to Mississippi State RB Vick Ballard, who carried the ball 10 times for 166 yards (16.6 YPC) and 3 touchdowns. He also rushed for 968 yards last year. The key is going to be whether or not Auburn's defense line can get a push to slow down Ballard and put pressure on MSU QB Chris Relf.

#13 Oregon just looked bad last week, turning the ball over 4 times against LSU. This week they'll return home and play against Nevada, who had a first week bye. Nevada lost their two best players from last year's WAC co-championship team, QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua. Oregon is going to be playing hungry, trying to get their first win of the season and put the bad loss behind them. It will be interesting to see how Nevada responds at Autzen Stadium.

#25 TCU fell at Baylor last week, but that wasn't the big surprise. The biggest surprise was that Baylor scored 50 points on TCU, the most that TCU has allowed since a 51-50 win over BYU in 2005. This week they travel to Air Force, and I could see a win by AFA here. They were leading South Dakota 37-7 after three quarters (they're not known to score a ton of points), and they rushed for 391 yards. Seniors QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark combined for 166 yards on 28 carries. TCU will have trouble stopping the Air Force option attack, and their defense will probably get pushed around again, but Jefferson will have success throwing a few passes.

Georgia's biggest chance to be relevant in the SEC East will be this weekend when they host #12 South Carolina. Georgia struggled on third down (2/13) against #4 Boise State last week, and that won't work against South Carolina. Against East Carolina, RB Marcus Lattimore had 23 carries for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns. Georgia's best chance for a win here is if they can corral Lattimore enough and make South Carolina beat them through the ball with QBs Stephen Garcie and Connor Shaw, which could be tough with the inconsistency there.

The first true night game at Michigan Stadium will be this weekend as they host Notre Dame. Michigan pulled away in the third quarter before the game was called due to lightning, while Notre Dame's comeback against South Florida failed. Both teams are coming off somewhat disappointing performances, but they will both need big games from their QBs, Notre Dame's Tommy Rees and Michigan's Denard Robinson. If either QB can have a big game and get a little help from the defense, that team will have a good chance of winning this historical rivalry.

Utah visits The Colliseum for the first Pac-12 game in history when they square off against USC. This is another pair of teams that had disappointing performances in the first week. Utah jumped out to an early 24-0 lead against Montana State, then didn't do much on offense the rest of the way. USC led Minnesota 19-3 at halftime, but needed a late interception to hold on for a 19-17 win. Utah's offense only ran 12 different plays all game, so it seems that they are trying to keep the new playbook somewhat hidden from USC. Utah will need to completely open up the playbook this week and get a big game from QB Jordan Wynn to have a chance to win this game. Utah RB John White was solid against Montana State (150 yards, 1 touchdowns), and he seems to be a good, reliable back to lead Utah's rushing attack.

The game of the week is #3 Alabama at #23 Penn State. It's too early in the season to really focus an entire post on one game, so I'll just use a paragraph here. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Alabama won this matchup 24-3. It will be tough in Beaver Stadium this year, but Alabama's defense will be the story here. They held Kent State to 90 yards, and Kent State only scored a touchdown because they started a drive at the Alabama 3 after an interception. It's hard to believe that Alabama had 5 turnovers and only allowed one score. Meanwhile, Penn State outgained Indiana State 359-170 and won 41-7 with ISU turning the ball over 3 times. While it's hard to put too much stock into these opening week games, it's not hard to see how much more dominant Alabama was, especially when you take the turnovers into consideration. Alabama is my pick for the national championship this year, and Penn State isn't even a pick for the division winner. If this was at Alabama, I think it would be a blowout. But with this game being at Penn State, I can see Alabama stumbling a bit in the first half. If this was at night, Penn State might even have a chance for an upset here.

Here are the main games I would like to watch some or all of this week:

Thursday 6:00 – Arizona at #9 Oklahoma State (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 8:30 – #21 Missouri at Arizona State (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 – Toledo at #15 Ohio State (BTN)
10:21 – #16 Mississippi State at Auburn (SEC, ESPN3)
1:30 – #3 Alabama at #23 Penn State (ABC)
1:30 – Nevada at #13 Oregon (FX)
1:30 – #25 TCU at Air Force (Versus)
1:30 – Hawaii at Washington (ROOT)
2:30 – #12 South Carolina at Georgia (ESPN, ESPN3)
5:30 – Utah at USC (Versus)
6:00 – Notre Dame at Michigan (ESPN, ESPN3)

Week 1 (9/3) Thoughts

It's always hard to judge what week 1 means, but I'm going to try to put some meaning on things for some teams. My picks were 25-2 this week (mostly easy games). The games I picked wrong were USF over #16 Notre Dame and Cal over Fresno State. Somehow I skipped over picking the TCU/Baylor game.

First up, as always, is Utah. Sure, Utah's win was not as impressive as you might think. Utah only outgained Montana State 292-258 (because of a late fourth quarter drive). However, I really think Utah's gameplan is the reason for their unimpressive 27-10 win. They jumped out to a quick 24-0 lead early in the second quarter, partly because of an interception and a blocked punt. However, two of those scoring drives in the first 20 minutes were 62 and 59 yards, so they still scored 14 early points without an extremely short field. After the quick lead, Utah didn't really do much at all. But I think that was part of the plan. After getting a quick lead, why not just sit back and try to avoid turnovers and injuries as well as keep the new playbook more hidden with USC coming up? Utah's longest pass play was 15 yards, and there didn't seem to be any receivers going deep except for a few plays. This made it easier for Utah to play a conservative game without turnovers. It was the season opener and new RB John White rushed for 150 yards, Utah didn't have any major injuries (G Jones will likely play this weekend and backup RB Vakapuna is questionable), they didn't turn the ball over, and aside from CB Ryan Lacy's 3 penalties Utah only committed 4 penalties. I'd say that's pretty good for a season opener, but we'll see how Utah does at USC this week.

Utah State looked great against #23 Auburn. I thought Utah State would keep it close with a few big plays here and there and mistakes by Auburn. But for most of the game, Utah State was controlling the line of scrimmage which I was extremely surprised about. Utah State was starting a true freshman at QB, Chuckie Keeton. You wouldn't think this was his first start (and at Auburn, nonetheless), as he looked very poised on every play and converted 3 key fourth downs. Utah State also had zero turnovers and outgained Auburn 448-364. In fact, Auburn needed a perfect onside kick with 2:07 left to get the ball back and score the winning touchdown with 30 seconds left. This could be a good year for Utah State and they will be in a bowl game at the end of the season.

Washington State looked great against lowly Idaho State. Unfortunately, QB Jeff Tuel broke his clavicle in the first quarter. Fifth year senior Marshall Lobbestael went 14/19 for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns in relief of Tuel. One of the best things about the 64-21 victory is that they didn't let up a single sack. I thought WSU was headed for a bowl game this year, but it could be tough to do that without Tuel for the first half of the season.

Had I known that Northwestern would be without QB Dan Persa for their game at Boston College, I probably would have picked Boston College. But I went with Persa and Northwestern, and Persa sat out the game. He is still struggling to fully recover from a torn Achilles near the end of last year. Kain Colter did pretty well in his place, going 17/24 for 197 yards with 1 interception and rushing 23 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Persa is still day-to-day, so it's a good thing Northwestern has Eastern Illinois this week and then plays at Army next week before a bye. He should have enough time to recover before the conference opener at Illinois on October 1.

Quick mention of the Syracuse at Wake Forest game. I wish I had seen it. Wake Forest led 29-14 in the fourth quarter when Syracuse scored two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the span of 1:19 to tie the game, then Syracuse took the game 36-29 in overtime. Wake Forest even outgained Syracuse 406-299. Syracuse could have won the game in regulation, but had a 33-yard field goal blocked with 2:07 remaining.

I thought Michigan would struggle with Western Michigan, and WMU actually out-passed Michigan 183-98. It didn't matter though because Michigan rushed for 190 yards and scored two defensive touchdowns. The game was called early near the end of the third quarter because of weather, but I'm still a little nervous about Michigan's pass defense. We'll see how they hold up next week at Notre Dame.

I picked Houston to upset UCLA, and Houston is also my BCS buster pick this year. So I wasn't at all surprised when Houston led 31-14 at the half. I was a little surprised that they didn't put up much of a fight in the second half as they got outscored 20-7 and their only touchdown was a fumble that was recovered in the endzone. Houston QB Case Keenum still threw for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns and Houston got the win, despite being outgained 554-469 (which I was most surprised about). That was Houston's marquee game of the year, but they won in a somewhat lackluster fashion. The rest of the C-USA West looked pretty pathetic over the weekend, with Tulsa, Rice, and SMU all getting blown out and UTEP going to overtime with Stony Brook. Houston and Southern Miss were the only C-USA teams that looked like contenders (I also think Southern Miss could go undefeated with their schedule).

The biggest season opener of the past two decades (biggest is debatable) wasn't actually that great. #3 Oregon looked like they were even with #4 LSU in the first half, perhaps even ahead of them. LSU led 16-13, but Oregon had some mistakes and turnovers that gave LSU 9 of those points. However, Oregon fell apart in the third quarter. There were turnovers and some LSU scores followed by some key Oregon injuries, which all results in 17 straight LSU points in the first 16 minutes of the second half. And they never looked back. It was never close again and Oregon scored with 13 seconds left to make the final 40-27. Oregon outgained LSU 335-273, but turned the ball over 4 times and every single turnover really cost them. I thought LSU's defense would win the game for them, and it really did.

The best game that I saw this weekend was #14 TCU at Baylor. The first quarter and a half were so back and forth and so entertaining to watch. I could not believe that Baylor was putting up so many points on this TCU defense. They had allowed 30+ points once in the last three seasons (San Diego State scored 35 last year), and Baylor had 34 at the half. Baylor QB Robert Griffin III was amazing, and 26 unanswered points over a 21 minute stretch of the second and third quarters seemed to put TCU away, with the score 47-23. But they fought back, scoring 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, cutting the lead to 47-45 with 7:11 remaining. Then, seemingly-perfect Griffin fumbled on the next offensive play, which was the first turnover of the entire game for either team. That led to a 27 yard field goal and TCU took the lead 48-47 with 4:27 left. Baylor took the ball 60 yards down the field and kicked a 37 yard field goal to reclaim the lead 50-58 with just 1:04 on the clock. TCU drove to the Baylor 40 yard line, and trying to get into field goal range threw an interception for the game's second turnover. DB Mike Hicks ran about 5 more seconds off the clock and went down with just 2 seconds remaining, sealing the game for Baylor. What a game by both team, and Griffin truly showed me why I think he's going to be so good this year. Also, it shouldn't be forgotten that TCU sophomore QB Casey Pachall played a very good game in his first start, throwing 25/39 for 251 yards, 4 touchdowns, and that untimely interception.

A few other things to take note of:
 - #1 Oklahoma and #6 Florida State both looked great against lesser opponents. Oklahoma has a bye this week while FSU hosts Charleston Southern as they prepare for their big showdown on 9/17.
 - Oregon State will have an interesting week after losing in overtime to Sacramento State (OSU trailed 21-6 at halftime). They play at Wisconsin this week, and that will be a blowout loss.
 - Fresno State was my pick for the WAC and I thought they'd handle Cal, but Cal led 36-14 and won 36-21. Jeff Tedford calling the plays again may have been a great idea after all.
 - Maryland had possibly the worst uniforms of the past few generations, but they pulled out a good win against Miami 32-24. They'll probably win 5 or 6 conference games and go bowling again.

Week 1 (9/3) Helmet Stickers

Time to start the helmet stickers. I only did this for about the first half of last season, but I try to recognize players who played outstanding games.

QB Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) - vs UNLV. 10/13, 255 yards (19.6 YPA), 2 TDs. 2 carries, 62 yards (46/16 yards), 1 TD.
WR Chris Givens (Wake Forest) - at Syracuse. 7 catches, 170 yards (24.3 YPC), 2 TDs.
RB Vick Ballard (Mississippi State) – at Memphis. 10 carries, 166 yards (16.6 YPC), 3 TDs.
QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor) – vs TCU. 21/27, 359 yards (13.3 YPA), 5 TDs. 10 carries, 38 yards, 1 fumble.
QB Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) – vs Army. 12/19, 195 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT. 11 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD.
QB Case Keenum (Houston) – vs UCLA. 30/40, 310 yards, 2 TDs. 7 carries, 30 yards.
WR Robert Woods (USC) – vs Minnesota. 17 catches, 177 yards, 3 TDs.
DL Nordly Capi (Colorado State) – at New Mexico. 7 tackles (5 solo), 4 sacks (3 solo), 4 forced fumbles.
DB Dwight Bentley (Lousiana) – at Oklahoma State. 2 INTs, 1 TD. 6 tackles (5 solo).
DB Antonio Allen (South Carolina) – vs East Carolina. 16 tackles (7 solo), 1 tackle for loss. 1 PBU, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovered, 1 TD.

Week 1 (9/3) Picks

I'm going to try to do some picks each week. I'll pick every game involving a ranked team as well as other games that I feel are somewhat important (every Utah/Michigan game will be on here).

Edit: As I'm watching this TCU/Baylor game, I just realized that I forgot to pick this game. Oh well. I was torn for this game anyway, and probably would've ended up picking TCU, so it might be a good thing I forgot. It's amazing the way that Baylor has been shredding this TCU defense.

UNLV at #11 Wisconsin - Wisconsin should win this game easily. UNLV will see a good dose of James White and Montee Ball.
#20 Mississippi State at Memphis - Should be an easy game for Mississippi State.
Montana State at Utah - Utah might struggle early with some new players on defense, but should pull out an easy win.
Youngstown State at #17 Michigan State - Easy win for MSU.
Utah State at #23 Auburn - Utah State will probably keep it closer than most people think.
Northwestern at Boston College - Dan Persa will look them to a close victory.
Miami (OH) at #21 Missouri - Miami will keep this close until the fourth quarter. I could almost see an upset here.
Kent State at #2 Alabama - Kent State could get shut out. They won't score more than 7.
Appalachian State at #13 Virginia Tech - I want to give App St a chance, but after last year VT will be prepared.
ULM at #6 Florida State - ULM will be much improved, but so will FSU. This will be over by halftime.
Chattanooga at #10 Nebraska - Another game to be over by halftime.
USF at #16 Notre Dame - Notre Dame is much better than last year. USF will struggle early and never really get back into it.
Minnesota at #25 USC - Barkley should have fun throwing on Minnesota.
Western Michigan at Michigan - Michigan will struggle to stop the pass, but win by 10 or so points.
UCLA at Houston - Houston will start their BCS season at home against UCLA.
San Jose State at #7 Stanford - Luck might throw 5 TDs in the first half.
Louisiana at #9 Oklahoma State - Brandon Weeden should have a big half, and he won't play in the second half.
East Carolina vs #12 South Carolina - Lattimore will dominate ECU's defense.
Missouri State at #15 Arkansas - Easy win for Arkansas.
Florida Atlantic at #22 Florida - Warm up game for Florida.
Fresno State at California - Fresno State makes a mark against Cal at Candlestick.
Tulsa at #1 Oklahoma - Oklahoma could win by 50+.
#3 Oregon vs #4 LSU - LSU's defense dominates Oregon's offense. Thomas won't be able to throw on them.
#5 Boise State at #19 Georgia - Ugliest game on TV this week. BSU beats an overrated Georgia team.
Marshall at #24 West Virginia - Marshall will probably score some points, but Geno Smith will have a big day.
SMU at #8 Texas A&M - SMU will give A&M trouble for a while, but A&M will pull away in the second half.
Miami at Maryland - The distractions and suspensions give Miami a loss on Labor Day.