It's always hard to judge what week 1 means, but I'm going to try to put some meaning on things for some teams. My picks were 25-2 this week (mostly easy games). The games I picked wrong were USF over #16 Notre Dame and Cal over Fresno State. Somehow I skipped over picking the TCU/Baylor game.
First up, as always, is Utah. Sure, Utah's win was not as impressive as you might think. Utah only outgained Montana State 292-258 (because of a late fourth quarter drive). However, I really think Utah's gameplan is the reason for their unimpressive 27-10 win. They jumped out to a quick 24-0 lead early in the second quarter, partly because of an interception and a blocked punt. However, two of those scoring drives in the first 20 minutes were 62 and 59 yards, so they still scored 14 early points without an extremely short field. After the quick lead, Utah didn't really do much at all. But I think that was part of the plan. After getting a quick lead, why not just sit back and try to avoid turnovers and injuries as well as keep the new playbook more hidden with USC coming up? Utah's longest pass play was 15 yards, and there didn't seem to be any receivers going deep except for a few plays. This made it easier for Utah to play a conservative game without turnovers. It was the season opener and new RB John White rushed for 150 yards, Utah didn't have any major injuries (G Jones will likely play this weekend and backup RB Vakapuna is questionable), they didn't turn the ball over, and aside from CB Ryan Lacy's 3 penalties Utah only committed 4 penalties. I'd say that's pretty good for a season opener, but we'll see how Utah does at USC this week.
Utah State looked great against #23 Auburn. I thought Utah State would keep it close with a few big plays here and there and mistakes by Auburn. But for most of the game, Utah State was controlling the line of scrimmage which I was extremely surprised about. Utah State was starting a true freshman at QB, Chuckie Keeton. You wouldn't think this was his first start (and at Auburn, nonetheless), as he looked very poised on every play and converted 3 key fourth downs. Utah State also had zero turnovers and outgained Auburn 448-364. In fact, Auburn needed a perfect onside kick with 2:07 left to get the ball back and score the winning touchdown with 30 seconds left. This could be a good year for Utah State and they will be in a bowl game at the end of the season.
Washington State looked great against lowly Idaho State. Unfortunately, QB Jeff Tuel broke his clavicle in the first quarter. Fifth year senior Marshall Lobbestael went 14/19 for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns in relief of Tuel. One of the best things about the 64-21 victory is that they didn't let up a single sack. I thought WSU was headed for a bowl game this year, but it could be tough to do that without Tuel for the first half of the season.
Had I known that Northwestern would be without QB Dan Persa for their game at Boston College, I probably would have picked Boston College. But I went with Persa and Northwestern, and Persa sat out the game. He is still struggling to fully recover from a torn Achilles near the end of last year. Kain Colter did pretty well in his place, going 17/24 for 197 yards with 1 interception and rushing 23 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Persa is still day-to-day, so it's a good thing Northwestern has Eastern Illinois this week and then plays at Army next week before a bye. He should have enough time to recover before the conference opener at Illinois on October 1.
Quick mention of the Syracuse at Wake Forest game. I wish I had seen it. Wake Forest led 29-14 in the fourth quarter when Syracuse scored two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the span of 1:19 to tie the game, then Syracuse took the game 36-29 in overtime. Wake Forest even outgained Syracuse 406-299. Syracuse could have won the game in regulation, but had a 33-yard field goal blocked with 2:07 remaining.
I thought Michigan would struggle with Western Michigan, and WMU actually out-passed Michigan 183-98. It didn't matter though because Michigan rushed for 190 yards and scored two defensive touchdowns. The game was called early near the end of the third quarter because of weather, but I'm still a little nervous about Michigan's pass defense. We'll see how they hold up next week at Notre Dame.
I picked Houston to upset UCLA, and Houston is also my BCS buster pick this year. So I wasn't at all surprised when Houston led 31-14 at the half. I was a little surprised that they didn't put up much of a fight in the second half as they got outscored 20-7 and their only touchdown was a fumble that was recovered in the endzone. Houston QB Case Keenum still threw for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns and Houston got the win, despite being outgained 554-469 (which I was most surprised about). That was Houston's marquee game of the year, but they won in a somewhat lackluster fashion. The rest of the C-USA West looked pretty pathetic over the weekend, with Tulsa, Rice, and SMU all getting blown out and UTEP going to overtime with Stony Brook. Houston and Southern Miss were the only C-USA teams that looked like contenders (I also think Southern Miss could go undefeated with their schedule).
The biggest season opener of the past two decades (biggest is debatable) wasn't actually that great. #3 Oregon looked like they were even with #4 LSU in the first half, perhaps even ahead of them. LSU led 16-13, but Oregon had some mistakes and turnovers that gave LSU 9 of those points. However, Oregon fell apart in the third quarter. There were turnovers and some LSU scores followed by some key Oregon injuries, which all results in 17 straight LSU points in the first 16 minutes of the second half. And they never looked back. It was never close again and Oregon scored with 13 seconds left to make the final 40-27. Oregon outgained LSU 335-273, but turned the ball over 4 times and every single turnover really cost them. I thought LSU's defense would win the game for them, and it really did.
The best game that I saw this weekend was #14 TCU at Baylor. The first quarter and a half were so back and forth and so entertaining to watch. I could not believe that Baylor was putting up so many points on this TCU defense. They had allowed 30+ points once in the last three seasons (San Diego State scored 35 last year), and Baylor had 34 at the half. Baylor QB Robert Griffin III was amazing, and 26 unanswered points over a 21 minute stretch of the second and third quarters seemed to put TCU away, with the score 47-23. But they fought back, scoring 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, cutting the lead to 47-45 with 7:11 remaining. Then, seemingly-perfect Griffin fumbled on the next offensive play, which was the first turnover of the entire game for either team. That led to a 27 yard field goal and TCU took the lead 48-47 with 4:27 left. Baylor took the ball 60 yards down the field and kicked a 37 yard field goal to reclaim the lead 50-58 with just 1:04 on the clock. TCU drove to the Baylor 40 yard line, and trying to get into field goal range threw an interception for the game's second turnover. DB Mike Hicks ran about 5 more seconds off the clock and went down with just 2 seconds remaining, sealing the game for Baylor. What a game by both team, and Griffin truly showed me why I think he's going to be so good this year. Also, it shouldn't be forgotten that TCU sophomore QB Casey Pachall played a very good game in his first start, throwing 25/39 for 251 yards, 4 touchdowns, and that untimely interception.
A few other things to take note of:
- #1 Oklahoma and #6 Florida State both looked great against lesser opponents. Oklahoma has a bye this week while FSU hosts Charleston Southern as they prepare for their big showdown on 9/17.
- Oregon State will have an interesting week after losing in overtime to Sacramento State (OSU trailed 21-6 at halftime). They play at Wisconsin this week, and that will be a blowout loss.
- Fresno State was my pick for the WAC and I thought they'd handle Cal, but Cal led 36-14 and won 36-21. Jeff Tedford calling the plays again may have been a great idea after all.
- Maryland had possibly the worst uniforms of the past few generations, but they pulled out a good win against Miami 32-24. They'll probably win 5 or 6 conference games and go bowling again.
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