The Big 12 has been looking a lot better than I thought it would this year with only 10 teams, and soon to be 9. This week, one team will get a big advantage as #7 Oklahoma State plays at #8 Texas A&M. #1 Oklahoma looks to be in control of the conference, but OSU gets OU at home on December 3 and Texas A&M travels to OU on November 5. The winner of this game will get an advantage of a tie-breaker in case that happens, or if the winner can win the rest of their conference games and knock of Oklahoma. I think OSU has the better chance of that, but we'll see what happens.
Neither team has played very tough competition, but Oklahoma State has the edge in strength of schedule because they beat Arizona (thought it was at home) and they played at Tulsa in a game that started after midnight due to delay. Already playing one road game will help OSU as they go on the road here, although their road game didn't take them outside the state and the Tulsa crowd won't be anywhere near what the Texas A&M crowd will be on Saturday. Texas A&M leads the series 17-8, but Oklahoma State has won the last 3. The teams have played every year since 1996, and Texas A&M leads the series in that time 10-5. The last two games have been decided by 3 and 5 points, and the last time this was played at College Station Zac Robinson was playing QB for OSU and they were without top WR Dez Bryant, but OSU led almost the entire second half and won 36-31.
Oklahoma State has been putting up big numbers in the passing game. They currently lead the nation with 408 YPG through the air, and are second in total offense (601 YPG) and third in scoring offense (52.3 PPG). RB Joseph Randle in 10th in rushing (126 YPG) and has gone over 100 yards and scored at least 2 touchdowns in each game, with a total of 7 touchdowns. Only three players have more rushing touchdowns on the season. Against Arizona, Randle also had 9 catches for 99 yards, so he can be a factor in the receiving game as well. Oklahoma State is only 37th in rushing with 193 YPG, but they'll want to establish the run early to make it easier for QB Brandon Weeden to throw the ball. Weeden in second in passing yards (370.3 YPG) but is only 27th in efficiency (157.5 QB rating). His main problem is interceptions, as he has thrown 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. However, he leads the nation in pass attempts (131) and he has completed 72.5% of those passes. Ironically, his worst game of the season was the opener against Louisiana-Lafayette where he only completed 61.5% of his passes threw 3 interceptions. He has improved since then.
Oklahoma State's defense has struggled a bit through three games. They're ranked 82nd in rush defense (171.3 YPG), 84th in pass defense (242.3 YPG), 92nd in total defense (413.7 YPG), and 76th in scoring defense (27 PPG). Their pass efficiency is much better though, ranking 37th at 110.5 QB rating for their opponents. They also have a +1 average turnover margin, which is good enough to tie for 17th in the country. The defense is averaging 3 sacks per game, so they'll need to make sure they can get some pressure on the QB.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, has been less explosive on offense but played better defense statistically. However, they've only played two games which have been against SMU and Idaho. It's hard to put much stock into their stats, but there are a couple of important things to point out. Texas A&M leads the nation in sacks (5.5 per game) and is one of only 5 teams that has not yet allowed a sack. That's impressive, especially considering that Texas A&M throws they ball a lot. They rank 18th in pass offense (311.5 YPG), 18th in total offense (487.5 YPG), and 17th in scoring offense (41.5 PPG). QB Ryan Tannehill has been efficient, too, completing 72.3% of his passes and has thrown 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception.
The Texas A&M has done a good job keeping their first two opponents from putting many points on the board, ranking 9th in scoring defense allowing 10.5 points per game. However, their opponents haven't been great. If you take out SMU's and Idaho's games against Texas A&M, SMU ties for 45th in scoring offense (34 PPG) and Idaho ranks 65th (29.5 PPG). That includes one FCS opponent for each team. So while Texas A&M hasn't allowed many points, their competition has been pretty low.
Oklahoma State has more and better play makers in Weeden, Randle, and WR Justin Blackmon. Texas A&M won't be able to match that with Tannehill, RB Cyrus Gray, and WR Ryan Swope/Jeff Fuller. Fuller is similar to Blackmon physically, but it's hard for any receiver to match the talent that Blackmon has. A&M looks to have a better defense, but after such easy competition it's hard to tell.
The big story here is going to be how the Texas A&M lines perform on both sides of the ball. If they can stop the run and make Oklahoma State more one-dimensional, they'll have a good chance to keep the scoring lower. If this turns into a shootout, OSU will have a big advantage. A&M has four players in the top-50 in sacks (.75+ sacks per game), and three of those are lineman with the other being a linebacker. They'll need to play a complete game as a defensive unit. The line needs to slow the run and get pressure on Weeden with those sacks, but the secondary also needs to be able to slow down Blackmon and confuse Weeden into throwing some bad passes. The offensive line will also be important as they've yet to allow a sack. If they can give Tannehill time, they should be able to throw the ball pretty well on Oklahoma State. OSU dominated the Arizona offensive line and made it really tough for AZ QB Nick Foles to complete passes, but A&M's line is much better.
The key for Oklahoma State is going to be to get off to a fast start. In each of their first three games, they've scored at least 10 points in the first quarter and had a 21+ point lead at halftime. Especially with the loud A&M crowd, they'll need to get points early and establish control on the road. OSU can score faster that most teams in the country, so they want this to be a high scoring shootout where they'll likely have an advantage.
I think this is going to be a close but sloppy game. Texas A&M will get after Weeden and he'll make some mistakes, but A&M's soft early schedule will cause them to not play mistake-free in their first big game. I'm going to go with the play makers of Oklahoma State in a close one.
My pick is Oklahoma State 43, Texas A&M 35.
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