Week 9 (10/30) Preview

Well, I had the outcome of last night's game wrong. It was a very entertaining game to watch. I figured FSU would put Russell Wilson on his back, but I didn't expect Wilson to hang in like he did. Tough break for FSU at the end of the game, and now NC State is in control of their own destiny, unlike Florida State.

Kansas State lost to Baylor last week, and that is the start of a 4-game losing streak. This week they'll lose to #17 Oklahoma State. The big game in the Big 12 is #6 Missouri at #14 Nebraska. Taylor Martinez has shown that he can also throw the ball, and he'll need to this week. I think Nebraska gets a big game from Martinez and another undefeated team loses on the road this week. Texas is hosting #25 Baylor, and I imagine it has been decades since they've played with Baylor as the higher ranked team. I think Baylor wins on the road and Texas goes to 4-4.

The last undefeated Big 10 team will lose this week. #5 Michigan State plays at #18 Iowa. Michigan State's only game outside of Michigan this season was last week at Northwestern, and they got down big early. They came back and won a close game. Iowa's defense is going to be too much for the Spartans this week.

Missouri and Michigan State will be the only undefeated teams to lose this week. #1 Auburn plays at Mississippi, #2 Oregon plays at USC, #8 Utah plays at Air Force, #4 TCU plays at UNLV, and they'll all win against unranked teams. The team with the best chance to lose is Oregon. USC has lost 2 games by a total of 3 points and both games were lost by a field goal kicked on the final play of the game. USC's defense has been letting up too many yards and points to be able to contain Oregon. Darron Thomas will have a big day throwing the ball.

Unfortunately I won't be able to watch hardly any football today because of Halloween being celebrated today in Utah. But here are the games I would like to check on when I can.

10:00 - #17 Oklahoma State at Kansas State (FSN)
1:30 - #5 Michigan State at #18 Iowa (ABC/ESPN)
1:30 - #6 Missouri at #14 Nebraska (ABC/ESPN)
4:00 - #1 Auburn at Mississippi (ESPN2)
5:00 - #13 Stanford at Washington (Versus)
5:00 - #25 Baylor at Texas (FSN)
5:30 - #8 Utah at Air Force (CBS College Sports)
6:00 - #2 Oregon at USC (ABC)
6:00 - Michigan at Penn State (ESPN)

Thursday Night: #16 Florida State at NC State

I'm not going to take the time right now to do a preview of the entire week so I'll just do a quick preview of the game tonight since I really don't want to miss it with this game. I said after Week 3 that this game was going to decide the ACC Atlantic, and it looks like that could be on track to be right. Right now, Florida State is on top of the division at 4-0 and they should win the rest of their conference games. NC State is tied for second with Maryland at 2-1, but Maryland still has to play Florida State, Virginia Tech, and NC State. I feel like both Florida State and NC State will be on top of the division at the end of the season with this game deciding who goes to the ACC Championship.

Florida State's pass offense has been extremely disappointing this year. Christian Ponder was being talked about as a preseason Heisman candidate but is only ranked 59th in passing efficiency. He has completed just 60% of his passes for 12 TDs and 7 INTs. The only game that I feel like he looked great in was the season opener against Samford. However, FSU has a good running game. They spread the carries around a lot, and their 4 backs (including Ponder) all have between 46 and 70 carries on the season. If you take out Ponder, the other 3 backs average 6.9 yards per carry and have 12 touchdowns. That's a very effective rushing attack.

NC State's offense is centered around Junior QB Russell Wilson. At times, Wilson has been the best quarterback in the conference, but he is also extremely inconsistent. He threw 3 interceptions in each of their 2 losses. He has also thrown for over 300 yards the last 5 games. He's going to need to step up and make some plays in order for them to get a win here. RB Mustafa Greene has been good running the ball, but they're going to need more than that to beat Florida State tonight.

Florida State's defense is returning to what most fans remember. They are ranked 20th in total defense and 13th in scoring defense as well as 1st in sacks (4.29 per game) and 5th in tackles per loss (8.43 per game). The sacks and tackles for loss will be important tonight. NC State is allowing 2.43 sacks per game, and I expect FSU to sack Wilson at least 4 times which will lead to him making some bad decisions.

I think the key to think game is going to be Russell Wilson. Florida State will play solid offense regardless of what happens and if they can secure the ball, they'll be able to put up a lot of points. If they can force Wilson to make some bad plays and turn the ball over, I think they'll win by a lot. If Wilson steps up and makes plays, FSU still wins but only by a few. I'm picking Florida State here 38-17, but it will be a lot closer than the score indicates.

Week 8 (10/23) Helmet Stickers

A lot of quarterbacks had big games this week.

Robert Griffin III ³ (QB, Baylor) - vs Kansas State. 26/38, 404 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT. Griffin isn't being talked about a whole lot, and I'm not sure why. He has lead Baylor to a 6-2 record and has thrown 18 TDs and 4 INTs and averages almost 9 yards per pass.

Taylor Martinez ³ (QB, Nebraska) - at Oklahoma State. 23/35, 323 yards, 5 TDs, 19 carries, 112 yards. For once we're talking about Martinez's arm. The last time a Nebraska QB threw for at least 5 TDs was in 2007 when Joe Ganz threw 7 against Kansas State.

Knile Davis (RB, Arkansas) - vs Mississippi. 22 carries, 176 yards, 3 TDs, 2 catches, 19 yards. 8 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns for the sophomore makes it the best game of his career so far.

Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - vs UCLA. 22/31, 308 yards, 3 TDs, 5 carries, 48 yards. This was Thomas' best game of the season. He completed 71% of his passes and is now up to 17 passing TDs on the season.

Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) - at Texas. 24 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs, 2 catches, 23 yards. Pretty good day for the Cyclone running back, but even better because it was against the tough Texas run defense that shut down Taylor Martinez the week before.

Ricky Dobbs (QB, Navy) - vs Notre Dame. 2/2, 71 yards, 1 TD, 20 carries, 90 yards, 3 TDs. I've never seen a quarterback have a rating of 563.20. Navy beat Notre Dame 35-17 and this is turning out to be a horrible inaugural season for Brian Kelly.

Cam Newton ⁴ (QB, Auburn) - vs LSU. 10/16, 86 yards, 28 carries, 217 yards, 2 TDs. Season low for passing yards, but tore the LSU defense for 217 yards (they were allowing just 83 on the ground per game). First player to 4 helmet stickers. What more can you say about this guy?

Here is the list of players that I have given helmet stickers to so far this season (including this week).

Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) - 2

Knile Davis (RB, Arkansas) - 1

Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) - 1

Josh Bynes (LB, Auburn) - 1

Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) - 4

Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - 3

Conner Vernon (WR, Duke) - 1

Dominique Davis (QB, East Carolina) - 1

Ahmad Black (S, Florida) - 1

Trey Burton (QB, Florida) - 1

Ryan Colburn (QB, Fresno State) - 1

A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) - 1

Bryant Moniz (QB, Hawaii) - 1

Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) - 1

Denard Robinson (QB, Michigan) - 3

Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - 1

Ricky Dobbs (QB, Navy) - 1

Taylor Martinez (QB, Nebraska) - 3

Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada) - 2

Via Taua (RB, Nevada) - 2

Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) - 1

Chad Spann (RB, Northern Illinois) - 1

Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma) - 1

DeMarco Murray (RB, Oklahoma) - 1

Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) - 1

Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State) - 1

Darron Thomas (QB, Oregon) - 1

LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) - 3

Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State) - 1

Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State) - 1

Stephen Garcia (QB, South Carolina) - 1

South Carolina Defense - 1

Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) - 1

Ed Wesley (RB, TCU) - 1

Jarvis Phillips (CB, Texas Tech) - 1

Derrick Coleman (RB, UCLA) - 1

Matt Barkley (QB, USC) - 1

Robert Woods (WR, USC) - 1

Diondre Borel (QB, Utah State) - 1

Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech) - 1

Josh Harris (RB, Wake Forest) - 1

Jermaine Kearse (WR, Washington) - 1

James White (RB, Wisconsin) - 1

Week 8 (10/23) Thoughts

How hard is it to go undefeated? Ask any of the last three teams who were ranked #1 in the AP poll or BCS standings. Alabama lost at South Carolina, then Ohio State lost at Wisconsin, and now Oklahoma lost at Missouri. Each of these teams lost by two possessions and each were on the road against a ranked team. Just like last week, the lower-ranked home team returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. But Oklahoma scored on their first possession and the game was mostly back and forth until the fourth quarter when Missouri scored 16 straight points. The differences in this game were ball control and efficiency. Missouri had the ball almost twice as long as Oklahoma (38:26 compared to 21:34) and 7.3 yards per pass compared to Oklahoma's 6.1. Both teams had a few turnovers, but the biggest seemed to be when Zaviar Gooden picked off Landry Jones in the fourth quarter. Missouri had just taken the lead back, going up 26-21. The first play of Oklahoma's next drive was picked off and Missouri scored 10 straight points, securing their lead for good.

BYU gets a celebration penalty after holding off Wyoming on their final drive to win by 5 points. That is a sign of how far the program has fallen this year.

Cam Newton should be the leading candidate for the Heisman now, if he wasn't already. He ripped a top-10 run defense apart. LSU was letting up just 83 yards per game on the ground, and Newton almost tripled that by himself. Auburn totaled a massive 440 yards on the ground. The defense also played pretty well, but they were also playing against a bad offense. Auburn is looking like a #1 team on offense, but not on defense or special teams. But you do have to give some credit to the defense. On LSU's first 5 second half drives, they had a total of one first down. But through that same span, LSU won the field position battle every drive. Auburn would get near midfield, stall, punt and LSU's special teams were getting big returns to nearly midfield each time. Then LSU would punt and pin Auburn deep in their own territory. But before that field position battle, this play is what Heisman voters will be looking at a lot.



The guy is just incredible, I can't say enough about him. He looks like the quarterback that could lead Auburn to a national championship game. Auburn is now the only undefeated team in the SEC and should remain that way until November 26 when they play at Alabama which will be a huge game.

I don't have a lot of time, but here are some short things worth mentioning.

Give it up to Wisconsin for pulling out the win on the road with the game winning touchdown with only 1:06 on the clock. Impressive win at Iowa while only managing 3.7 yards per carry against that tough defense.

Taylor Martinez, wow. I'd be interested to see when the last time was that a Nebraska quarterback passed for 5 touchdowns. That's a stat I will be looking up. Good job by the defense, too, only letting Brandon Weeden complete half of his passes (he's completing 66% on the year).

Baylor will be going bowling for the first time since 1994, I believe. Good job Bears. Robert Griffin III is having a great year, and had a big day against Kansas State with over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns. Lots to talk about in the Big 12 this year, surprisingly.

Hawaii's offense is better than I thought. Not that Utah State is great or anything, but Hawaii is usually much worse away from the island and they won 45-7 in Logan.

Alabama's looking pretty hot right now. I think they still have a legitimate shot at the national championship if there are no unbeaten BCS teams and they win out.

Who keeps replacing the Texas football team? They've lost 3 of their last 4. The lone win was at Nebraska. The 3 losses were all at home and include Iowa State and UCLA. They hadn't lost 3 straight home games in over a decade.

The end of the season is shaping up to be pretty exciting. Auburn's looking like the front runner for the championship but they still play at Alabama. Boise State won't make the championship unless Auburn and Oregon both lose (and probably Michigan State and both TCU and Utah too) because of strength of schedule. If Michigan State wins at Iowa this weekend, they'll probably be the only undefeated team in the Big 10 (who saw that coming??). Unless a ton of teams lose, the only current one-loss team I see with a shot at the championship is Alabama.

My pick right now for the championship: Oregon vs Alabama. As much as I want to say Auburn here, their defense just isn't good enough and they play at Alabama. Their only shot is if they step up their defense. I think Alabama will run the table, Michigan State will lose at Iowa, and Alabama will overtake all non-BCS teams (and 0 or 1-loss Missouri).

Week 8 (10/23) Rankings

1. Oregon
2. TCU
3. Boise State
4. Auburn
5. Ohio State
6. Utah
7. Alabama
8. Wisconsin
9. Stanford
10. Missouri
11. Arizona
12. Michigan State
13. Oklahoma
14. Nebraska
15. Florida State
16. Iowa
17. Arkansas
18. Mississippi State
19. USC
20. South Carolina
21. Miami (FL)
22. Baylor
23. Virginia Tech
24. Oklahoma State
25. Nevada

Game of the Week - #6 LSU at #4 Auburn

Auburn has Heisman hopeful Cam Newton. LSU has the third ranked defense. One of those has got to give as the two remaining undefeated SEC teams play this weekend. Both teams have had a few close games, but LSU has won a couple games off complete luck. Tennessee had the game won when LSU had a bad snap on the final play of the game. But Tennessee also had 13 players on the field, and LSU scored with their second chance play. Then they needed a perfect bounce into the arms of the kicker on a field goal to beat Florida. They have found ways to win despite having the 92nd ranked offense in the country.

Cam Newton has been a complete monster this season. He is ranked 11th in total offense, and accounts for 305 of Auburn's 481 yards each game. Also in the backfield they have Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb who are gaining over 50 yards per game on the ground. Mario Fannin has been a decent running the ball but is a good receiving back. He has 137 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving so far on the year. The Auburn backs don't lose yards often, either. They have the sixth best rushing offense in the country. The passing offense is only 76th in total yards, but Newton is the second most efficient passer. He makes good use of the passing downs. That adds up to 40 points per game which is good enough for sixth in the country.

Match all that up against the LSU defense. They are only allowing 242 yards per game which is third in the nation. They allow 83 yards on the ground (6th best) and 158 yards through the air (8th best). They only allow 14 points per game, which is 11th best. They also sack the opposing QB three times per game. The LSU defense has just been completely solid. They also get about 7 1/2 tackles for loss each game, so Auburn may be moving backwards more than they are used to.

Auburn's defense has struggled a lot this year, especially against the pass. They allow 266 yards per game through the air, which 108th in the country. Lucky for them, LSU only throws the ball for 140 yards per game which is bad enough for 113th in that category. They also have terrible passing efficiency (ranked 106th). Their rushing offense looks pretty good statistically, but one reason for that is because most teams throw the ball on them. LSU will probably get their passing game going better than they have the rest of the year against the struggling Auburn defense.

One thing to watch may be when Auburn punts. Auburn has struggled punting the ball effectively (34 net yards per punt) and LSU is averaging 18 yards per return. Also, Auburn has a slight advantage in the turnover department, leading LSU there .57 to -.29. I don't expect special teams or turnovers to have a big impact on this game, but they could lead to a couple big, important plays.

LSU has been pretty consistent with their play throughout the four quarters this season, while Auburn (especially the defense) seems to just come alive in the fourth quarter. Against Arkansas, they forced 3 turnovers in the fourth quarter and scored 28 points in 5 minutes. Against South Carolina, they forced turnovers on all 4 of the Gamecocks' possessions. LSU had better be ready for a 4th quarter ambush if this game is close.

Overall, I think that LSU has been extremely lucky with the way they have won games, but a large part of that is because they haven't been able to get the offense going. Their defense has been nothing but spectacular this year (McNeese St had a touchdown handed to them by LSU's offense). But Auburn's Cam Newton is going to be a little too much to handle and Auburn will put up more points than anyone else has this year against them (the most was Florida with 29). Jordan Jefferson has already thrown 15 interceptions through 7 games but I expect that he'll play pretty well for most of the game before throwing a couple picks in the 4th quarter of this game and the Auburn offense will make them pay for it. It will be close for 3 quarters and Auburn will pull away, making this win look more impressive than it really is. Auburn wins, 44-24.

Week 8 (10/23) Preview

There are 4 games between ranked teams this week. The game of the week is #6 LSU at #4 Auburn.

The Thursday night game this week is UCLA at #2 Oregon. UCLA is going to need to have an incredible game to even have a chance here. Oregon has the third best rushing offense and UCLA has the 92nd best rushing defense. The UCLA rushing attack has been potent at times, but Oregon's run defense should be good enough to contain them. Watch the turnovers in this game. UCLA's turnover margin is -.67 and Oregon's is +1.5. I expect a big game for LaMichael James and a big win for Oregon.

#13 Wisconsin will be pretty high from their win over top ranked Ohio State and they travel to #15 Iowa this week. The biggest factor that I see in this game is whether or not Wisconsin can run the ball. Iowa is only allowing 83 yards per game on the ground, while Wisconsin is gaining 232. Wisconsin will probably be forced to throw the ball some and Iowa's pass defense lets up some yards, but they don't allow for a very efficient defense. Wisconsin doesn't throw for many yards but are very efficient when they do throw it. Iowa should rely on their passing defense this week as they're ranked third in passing efficiency and Wisconsin is ranked 70th in pass efficiency defense. Iowa also has the advantage in turnover margin with +1.33 compared to Wisconsin's +.29. I'm not completely sold on Iowa this year, but I think that with the game being at home and Wisconsin being overconfident after their big win, I think that Iowa will come away with the upset this week having the advantage on defense and the passing game.

Texas beating #16 Nebraska may actually end up being a good thing for Nebraska. They play at #14 Oklahoma State this week, who just happens to be undefeated. I think that after losing to Texas at home, Nebraska is going to come out with something to prove and trying to save their season. Oklahoma State has had an amazing passing attack this year, averaging 361 yards per game and an efficiency rating of 165. But Nebraska is #1 in pass defense and pass efficiency defense. I think Nebraska will get back on track with a big road win over undefeated Oklahoma State.

Another big game in the Big 12 this week is #1 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri. Both teams are undefeated and both teams need this win. Statistically, neither of these teams has been too incredible in more than 1 or 2 areas. Oklahoma's turnover margin is +1.5 (Missouri's is +.83) and Missouri is only allowing 10.83 points per game. Both teams average around 3 sacks and 8 tackles per loss. Missouri has been better on defense and Oklahoma has been slightly better on offense. This game is at Missouri and Oklahoma's only road game this season was at Cincinnati, a game they won by two points. Looking at this game statistically, it's a toss up. Oklahoma has shown up in all of their big games (Texas made it close late) and Missouri has had three straight impressive wins after they needed a last minute touchdown to beat San Diego State at home. I think DeMarco Murray has a big game this week. This could be a third straight loss for a #1 team, but I think that Missouri hasn't been tested enough and they'll slip up late in the game to lose. Oklahoma has played in some close games and they'll win this one close.

A big game in the Pac-10 is Washington at #18 Arizona. Both teams are 2-1 in the conference and both teams still have Stanford and Oregon on their schedule. To have any shot at a Pac-10 title, this is a must win for both teams. Yes, Washington at 3-3 still has a shot at the conference. They should win their last 3 games of the season so if they can get through the next 3 tough games with 2 wins, they could be a contender if one of those wins is against Oregon. But it won't be. 2 of Washington's wins came on the last play of the game. One was a field goal against USC and the other was a failed 2-point conversion in double overtime by Oregon State. They also lost to BYU and Arizona State. Arizona's only loss was by two points against Oregon State. Arizona is in the top 10 in passing offense, rushing defense, scoring defense, kickoff returns, sacks, and tackles for loss. Washington's highest ranked team category is sacks allowed, which they are 34th. Arizona should win by at least 2 touchdowns at home.

After this week there will be at least two less undefeated teams, leaving at most 8. All of those are ranked in the top 14 in the first edition of the BCS standings, and all but two are in the top 10. Almost every undefeated team has at least a remote shot at the national championship if things fall their way. It should be an exciting finish to the season.

EDIT: It's late Friday night and I just realized I didn't post the list of games I want to watch this week. My time will be limited since I'm going to the Utah game this weekend, but these are the games I'd like to watch at least part of (What's up with the morning games lately?).

Thursday 7:00 - UCLA at #2 Oregon (ESPN)
10:00 - #7 Michigan State at Northwestern (ESPN)
1:30 - #6 LSU at #4 Auburn (CBS)
1:30 - #16 Nebraska at #14 Oklahoma State (ABC/ESPN)
1:30 - #13 Wisconsin at #15 Iowa (ABC/ESPN)
4:00 - Colorado State at #9 Utah (The Mountain)
5:00 - #8 Alabama at Tennessee (ESPN)
6:00 - #1 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri (ABC)
6:00 - Air Force at #5 TCU (CBS College Sports)
8:15 - Washington at #18 Arizona (ESPN)

Week 7 (10/16) Helmet Stickers

4 total QBs and 3 players from one game.

Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma) - vs Iowa State. 30/34, 334 yards, 3 TDs. He completed 88% of his passes for nearly 10 yards per attempt with a QB rating of 199.87. Oklahoma beat Iowa State 52-0.

Matt Barkley (QB, USC) - vs California. 25/37, 352 yards, 5 TDs. I have given this guy no credit the last two years. Last year it was deserved, but this year he has thrown for almost 2,000 yards and 20 TDs with only 4 INTs. 5 TDs against Cal and USC killed them.

Josh Harris (RB, Wake Forest) - at Virginia Tech. 20 carries, 241 yards, 2 TDs. Wake Forest may have lost, but Harris had the offense going with 12.1 yards per carry and a pair of touchdowns. It's not his fault the defense let up over 600 yards.

Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) - at Virginia. 7 catches, 198 yards, 2 TDs. Jones had an astounding 28.3 yards per catch. He had an 81 yard touchdown catch on the first play from scrimmage.

Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) - at Auburn. 25/34, 332 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs. Normally this wouldn't be deserving an anything good. But Wilson had thrown 10 passes before this game and through 3 quarters and 1 minute he had 4 TDs and 0 INTs after coming in for Mallett when he was taken out due to a concussion. Wilson gave Arkansas an opportunity to win, but then he threw two interceptions to the same person in about two minutes. He also had completed 24 of 29 passes but only completed 1 of his last 5.

Josh Bynes (LB, Auburn) - vs Arkansas. 8 tackles, 2 INTs. Bynes picked off backup quarterback Wilson twice in about two minutes to help Auburn run away with the game in the fourth quarter.

Cam Newton ³ (QB, Auburn) - vs Arkansas. 10/14, 140 yards, 1 TD, 25 carries, 188 yards, 3 TDs. Once again, Cam Newton carried the Auburn offense on his back. With his passing and rushing combined, he averaged 8.4 yards per play.

There are now three players who have received three helmet stickers so far this season. They are Cam Newton, LaMichael James, and Denard Robinson.

Week 7 (10/16) Thoughts

Two weeks in a row I thought the #1 team could lose on the road. Two weeks in a row I was too scared to pick the upset so I picked #1. Two weeks in a row I was wrong. If you look at the statistics, #18 Wisconsin barely outplayed #1 Ohio State. They only had 25 more yards, a few more penalty yards, the same number of turnovers, and almost the same 3rd down percentage. But Wisconsin returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and scored on their first two drives to take a 21-0 lead and Ohio State never recovered. Ohio State also missed a field goal and made another field goal after getting all the way to the 4 yard line. With 11 1/2 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Ohio State scored to make it 21-18. Wisconsin followed that with a 10 plays, 73 yard drive in 4:41. Ohio State was then held to a three-and-out and Wisconsin answered with a field goal. Ohio State got into Wisconsin territory and the drive ended with an interception. Wisconsin made better use of their opportunities and they got the big win. At least now there is no chance of having two undefeated Big Ten teams.

Cam Newton has to be one of the front-runners for the Heisman race now. #7 Auburn's defense is still struggling, as they let up 43 points to #12 Arkansas. But once again, they forced turnovers in the fourth quarter to get the win. The 65-43 win set an SEC record for most combined points in a game that didn't go into overtime. A lot of the Auburn doesn't look very good (specifically the defense) but they keep doing enough to win and are playing great football in the fourth quarter. Newton had 4 total touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over. Auburn averaged 8.4 yards every time he ran and threw the ball. There were no turnovers for either team in the first three quarters, and Auburn forced three in the fourth quarter. If Auburn can clean up defensively, they definitely have a shot at winning the national championship. They have a home game against LSU next week and they still have to play at Alabama in the final game of the regular season. If they can win those two games, they should be playing for the title.

I was very surprised that Texas was able to contain #5 Nebraska like they did. I knew the Texas defense was good, but they completely shut down Taylor Martinez. He was just 4/12 passing and 13 times for 21 yards before being taken out of the game. Texas avoided their first three game losing streak in over a decade and now the Big 12 North race is actually something to watch. #11 Missouri still hasn't lost a conference game, but they play Oklahoma and Nebraska in the next two weeks. If Nebraska can beat #14 Oklahoma State and Missouri they should win the division. The Big 12 is turning out to be deeper than I have been giving it credit for.

Another team that is better than I have been giving them credit for is USC. They had lost two games by a total of three points and both games were lost on a field goal as time expired. Cal's defense has looked tough this year except against Nevada. They had held every other team to 10 or less points. USC scored 42 in the first half. They ended up with 602 yards which is just incredible. Matt Barkley threw for 5 touchdowns. USC could make a run at the conference title if they can get help from teams playing Stanford and Oregon.

I guess I can stop talking about Nevada for a while. On the road against Hawaii they were down 17-0 at halftime and never recovered. They never really got the running game going and Kaepernick struggled throwing the ball. Four turnovers didn't help either. Hawaii looks like they may contend for one of the top spots in the WAC. If they had Boise State at home they could potentially spoil the Broncos' season.

The teams I have been the most surprised with are USC and the entire Big 12. I didn't think Oklahoma would be very good this year and they are still undefeated. The rest of the conference is looking pretty good as well except for Kansas and Colorado. Even Baylor is pulling their weight in the conference. They are just one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since the mid-90s. I can't get too ahead of myself with Baylor though because their last 5 games are against #22 Kansas State, #19 Texas, #14 Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and #1 Oklahoma. Pretty tough finish, but I think they can win two of those games to get to 7-5 and go to a bowl game.

Week 7 (10/16) Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Boise State
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Auburn
6. Ohio State
7. Alabama
8. Utah
9. Stanford
10. Michigan State
11. Wisconsin
12. Arizona
13. Missouri
14. Iowa
15. Nebraska
16. Florida State
17. Mississippi State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Arkansas
20. USC
21. South Carolina
22. Miami (FL)
23. LSU
24. West Virginia
25. Virginia Tech

Mountain West Rankings

With the season about half over, I decided to post some conference rankings.


1. TCU -  They have just been solid. On a neutral field, they're the best team in the conference.

2. Utah - Utah will only beat TCU because it's in Salt Lake, where TCU has never won. I'm surprised how good Utah is looking lately (other than the first quarter). Did you know that Utah is first in the nation in two categories and in the top 4 in five? (Kickoff returns - 1, Sacks allowed - 1, Scoring offense - 3, Punt returns - 3, Passing efficiency - 4). The only two important team categories where they're below 35 are net punting and turnover margin. (http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?org=732&year=2010&week=6)

3. Air Force - I'm surprised how good Air Force is this year. Their only loss was a close game at Oklahoma. Best rushing offense in the country.

4. San Diego State - Two losses, both on the road and largely because of bad calls. At home, they've won by a total of 88-7. Yeah, it was against Nicholls State and Utah State, but it's also San Diego State.

5. BYU - Toss up between BYU and Wyoming here. Yes, I mean that. BYU gets the spot because of their win over SDSU and some of Wyoming's bad games. BYU is 113th in scoring offense. That's horrible. The only two categories that they're ranked higher than 69 are kickoff returns (46) and pass defense (33). I assume they're good at pass defense because they've been blown out in 4 of their 6 games.

6. Wyoming - Tied for 118th in scoring (with New Mexico). They beat SUU by 8 at home. The one good part of the team is the leading tackler, DB Shamiel Gary who has 64 total tackles and 1 interception on the year.

7. UNLV - Well, they blew out New Mexico. 98th in rushing offense and 90th in passing offense.

8. Colorado State - They beat Idaho by 2 at home. They were also down by 7 halfway through the 4th quarter and won on a field goal as time expired.

9. New Mexico - New Mexico is ranked 42nd in kickoff returns. They're between 92 and 98 in three other categories. The rest are over 100. Absolutely horrendous. The worst FBS team this year. (http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?org=473&year=2010&week=6)

I cannot believe how bad the bottom 3/4 teams are in the conference. Just embarrassing. Depending on how good Nevada ends up being, the WAC might be better than the Mountain West this year.

Game of the Week - #12 Arkansas at #7 Auburn

Auburn is undefeated, Arkansas lost one game by four against then first-ranked Alabama in a game where Arkansas had the lead 20-7 near the end of the third quarter. Both teams have had their share of close wins. Arkansas needed a last minute touchdown to beat Georgia and withstood a comeback by Texas A&M to win by 7. Auburn has beat Mississippi State, South Carolina, Clemson (OT), and Kentucky by one possession or less. Auburn also needed to come back against South Carolina and Clemson.

I think that coming back is going to be the story of this game. Arkansas blew the lead to lose against Alabama. Arkansas had a two touchdown lead midway through the fourth quarter and Georgia came back to tie it. Auburn was down 17-0 before the last play of the half against Clemson and came back and won in overtime. Auburn was down 20-7 in the second quarter to South Carolina and down 27-21 going into the fourth before forcing turnovers on all four of South Carolina's possessions in the fourth quarter.

Auburn QB Cam Newton is 2nd in the nation in pass efficiency, 17th in rushing, and 12th in total offense. He seems to be their entire offense at times, but Arkansas' run defense is 43rd in the country so he'll probably have a lot of running room. Arkansas has the 3rd best pass offense in the country and Auburn is 91st in pass defense. I expect a lot of points to be put up by both teams. It could come down to whoever has the ball last wins.

Arkansas has had a halftime lead in every game, and I think they'll lead Auburn early in this game. But Cam Newton is going to be the difference maker to lead Auburn back into the game and keep the Tigers undefeated. Home field advantage will also be a factor in the comeback. Auburn wins 38-34.

Week 7 (10/16) Preview Part 2

Well it looks like Kansas State is back on track. Despite only out-gaining Kansas 460-331, they won 59-7.

#20 Oklahoma State plays at Texas Tech. OSU struggled a little bit in the first half last week against Lousiana-Lafayette but finished strong. They'll need to keep the momentum going this week as they host #5 Nebraska and then travel to Kansas State. The last half of their schedule is not very easy, aside from a road game at Kansas. Both teams have a passing offense in the top 4 and a passing defense in the bottom 7. Oklahoma State can run the ball better and scores more points, and I think they'll come away with the win setting up a big game against Nebraska next week.

This week, Nebraska plays a home game against Texas. Texas has had two disappointing losses in a row to UCLA and #8 Oklahoma. Nebraska is averaging 337 yards per game on the ground alone, and Texas is only letting up 104 rushing yards per game. Something has got to give there. Taylor Martinez will probably have a big day, but I doubt he'll have the big plays that he has been having lately. It will be a defensive struggle and I think Nebraska will come out on top and Texas will have a three game losing streak for the first time since 1999.

The line for BYU at #4 TCU is somewhere around 30. I'll be surprised if TCU wins by less than 40, and this is just a testament to how far BYU has fallen this year as they are 2-4 right now.

Watch for #19 Nevada to struggle traveling to Hawaii. Hawaii has the #1 pass offense in the country, but I think Nevada's balanced attack will stay on the field for the majority of the game and outlast Hawaii.

Games I plan on watching at least part of (times are MDT, as always):

10:00 - Boston College at #16 Florida State (ESPN)
1:30 - Texas at #5 Nebraska (ESPN)
1:30 - #15 Iowa at Michigan (ABC)
1:30 - #12 Arkansas at #7 Auburn (CBS)
2:00 - BYU at #4 TCU (Versus)
4:00 - #11 Utah at Wyoming (The Mountain)
5:00 - #1 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin (ESPN)
8:15 - #24 Oregon State at Washington (ESPN)

Week 7 (10/16) Preview Part 1

Game of the week: #12 Arkansas at #7 Auburn

Kansas State looked ugly against Nebraska last week. They visit Kansas tonight. If they want to be able to make any noise in the Big 12 they're going to need a win tonight and get back on track before a tough 4 game stretch in which they play Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Missouri. Kansas has been up and down a lot this year, but I think Kansas State will come out on top.

Illinois visits #13 Michigan State and the road team has won the last 3 meetings. But 2 of those times, Michigan State was the winner and Michigan State is much better and Illinois is worse. Michigan State's only hard game remaining is at #15 Iowa. Michigan hosts Iowa this week. Michigan will have a tough time moving the ball. Iowa is currently ranked 2nd in the country in rushing defense and 1st in scoring defense. Michigan has a terrible defense had has needed to win games by outscoring their opponents, so they'll probably lose again this week.

#1 Ohio State plays at #18 Wisconsin, and this is one of only 2 more chances this season for Ohio State to lose. They will also need to play Iowa on the road later in the year. Ohio State is only 20th in rushing offense and 37th in passing offense but 6th in scoring offense. Ohio State takes very good care of the ball (+1.67 turnover margin) and makes good use of their time on the field. Combine that with good defense and they're one of the top teams in the country for good reason. The real question is whether or not Wisconsin will be able to run the ball, and I think they will. Close win for Ohio State.

Part 2 of the Week 7 Preview will be coming either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Week 6 (10/9) Helmet Stickers

Four repeats here and none of them are Denard Robinson or LaMichael James. Also, the first team unit gets a sticker this week.

Cam Newton ² (QB, Auburn) - at Kentucky. 13/21, 210 yards, 1 int, 28 carries, 198 yards, 4 TDs. His passing statistics were down this week, but the former Florida QB had every Auburn touchdown and carried the offense late to set up the game winning field goal.

Taylor Martinez ² (QB, Nebraska) - at Kansas State. 5/7, 128 yards, 1 TD, 15 carries, 241 yards, 4 TDs. Martinez had 5 total touchdowns and averaged over 15 yards per carry. Kansas State has one of the worst run defenses in the country, but this was still a very impressive performance.

Stephen Garcia (QB, South Carolina) - vs Alabama. 17/20, 201 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int, 7 carries, 11 yards. Garcia's efficient passing helped South Carolina knock off the #1 team in the land. Against any other team and this performance is not good enough to get a sticker.

Robert Woods (WR, USC) - at Stanford. 12 catches, 224 yards, 3 TDs. Even though USC lost, Freshman WR Woods had an incredible day and was a big reason why USC almost won this game.

Vick Ballard (RB, Mississippi State) - at Houston. 14 carries, 134 yards, 3 TDs. The junior has 58 carries and 3 catches through 6 games and has yet to fumble the ball. He also has 11 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown on the year so far.

Robert Griffin III ² (QB, Baylor) - at Texas Tech. 31/42, 384 yards, 2 TDs, 11 carries, 18 yards, 2 TDs. Sure, it was against Texas Tech, but Griffin completed 73.8% of his passes and threw for nearly 400 yards for the second straight week.

Via Taua ² (RB, Nevada) - vs San Jose State. 16 carries, 196 yards, 3 TDs, 2 catches, 18 yards. Nevada seems to be shifting their running game more Taua and he out-rushed Kaepernick once again.

South Carolina Defense - at Alabama. I've never given a sticker to a team unit before, but the South Carolina defense held the Ingram/Richardson combination to 64 yards rushing and didn't allow a touchdown on the ground. They also sacked Greg McElroy seven times.

Week 6 (10/9) Thoughts

Well, I got a couple of things right about #19 South Carolina upsetting #1 Alabama. I said that Alabama would struggle early, and they got down 21-3 a minute and a half in the second quarter. I said that the one thing that would keep South Carolina in the game would be sacks, and they sacked McElroy SEVEN times. But I also said that Alabama would settle down after a quarter (which they did) and that the game would be over by the third quarter with Alabama winning by a lot. Give a ton of credit to South Carolina for staying ahead of Alabama. South Carolina is now in the driver's seat for the SEC East. They have a few easier games now playing Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee before they play Arkansas and Florida. Their game against Florida could decide the division.

The top teams in the Big Ten are still looking good, as #1 Ohio State and #20 Wisconsin both won without any problems against Indiana and Minnesota. Northwestern finally got a loss against Purdue, and they'll continue to lose. The big game was between #17 Michigan State and #18 Michigan. I was right in saying that Denard Robinson would be the key to this game. But I was wrong about who he would be key for. Michigan State did a phenomenal job shutting down Robinson's big rushing play capabilities, and his longest rush was for 16 yards. He still gained 86 yards on the ground, but at only 4.1 yards per carry. Easily his lowest of the season. This forced him to throw the ball, and without the threat of him breaking off a big run he was unable to throw the ball effectively, throwing three interceptions. Two of the interceptions were in the endzone. There were no real standouts on Michigan State's offense, but they worked together as a unit and got the job done, scoring 34 points without any turnovers. Michigan State also had the ball for 10 minutes longer than Michigan. The game ball of this game really goes to the entire Michigan State team for playing as a complete unit on both sides of the ball. MSU's struggles in the past have been closing out seasons, so we'll see in the coming weeks how they do. They really just need to not mess up. They have already beaten Wisconsin and Michigan and they don't have to play Ohio State. They have 6 conference games remaining, but the only really difficult game should be Iowa. There's a good chance that we'll have two undefeated Big Ten teams at the end of the year in Ohio State and Michigan State.

Oregon is still atop the Pac-10 after avoiding a scare against Washington State. They had a lot of star players go down due to injury (including Kenjon Barner taking a trip to the hospital) and got down early 14-8. But eventually they held together and ended up with a 20-point win. I'm sure it was disappointing for them to struggle against a team like Washington State, but they got the win and are still undefeated and it looks like they could be headed to the national championship if they keep winning. Oregon State is looking good after their upset of undefeated #9 Arizona, but they just got hit with the biggest blow of their season with James Rodgers going out for the year with a knee injury. They will likely be 7-0 in the conference at Thanksgiving but then they play Stanford and Oregon in their last two weeks of the season. Without Rodgers it will be very difficult to win those games.

#8 Auburn continues to win close games. Wins over Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina, and now Kentucky have all come down to the end of the game. Cam Newton threw for 210 and rushed for 198 yards and had 4 rushing touchdowns and carried the Auburn offense. At the end of the game it looked like their offensive strategy was to not let anyone else touch the ball unless Newton felt like throwing it that play. It worked, and his runs set up the game winning field goal as time expired. Auburn is looking extremely good right now, but their next 2 games are against #12 Arkansas and #9 LSU. They're both at home and I expect Auburn to win both games. I'm sticking with Auburn and Alabama playing for the SEC West title on November 26. And I just realized I'll be driving back from Colorado that day.

#12 LSU got lucky once again and beat #14 Florida 33-29. These two teams are incredibly overrated and LSU will be irrelevant in a few weeks. Florida may be relevant at the end of the season if they can beat South Carolina and squeak into the SEC championship game.

USC lost on a last second field goal for the second week in a row as #16 Stanford beat them 37-35. They still have yet to beat anybody decent but three out of their next five opponents are ranked, so if they can win a couple of those games they might be looking alright heading to the end of the season but they cannot play in a bowl game.

#23 Florida State is looking really good, you have to wonder what happened when they got blown out by then #10 Oklahoma. They have won big in every other game. They slammed #13 Miami 45-17, but they only forced one interception from Jacory Harris (I said he'd throw at least 3). He did only complete 19 of his 47 passing attempts and FSU leaned on their running game (likely because it was 31-7 early in the third quarter).

#10 Utah scored the most points since 1983 while beating up Iowa State 68-27, thanks to 31 second quarter points. They have now outscored their opponents 101-7 in the second quarter. They looked perfect in every aspect of the game aside from the two early turnovers which handed Iowa State two touchdowns and a 14-10 lead in the first quarter.

Now for a rundown of the remaining important undefeated teams. It looks more and more like Nebraska and Oklahoma are going to end up undefeated going into the conference title game. Oklahoma could struggle against Oklahoma State at the end of the season so watch out for that game. Nebraska still plays undefeated Missouri but they should easily win that game. There are only two undefeated teams left in the Big Ten (Ohio State and Michigan State) and they do not play each other. In two weeks, there will be one or less undefeated teams in the SEC after Auburn and LSU play. Boise State and Nevada play November 26. Neither team should lose a game besides that all season, and that game could be a toss up since it is being playing in Reno. Oregon has bean Stanford and it looks like Arizona is probably the only team standing in the way of their undefeated season now. Utah and TCU should be undefeated when they play in Salt Lake City on November 6. The winner of that game will likely stay undefeated. I give Utah the edge in the game simply because it is a home game for them. If it was played anywhere outside of Salt Lake City, I think TCU wins.

My pick right now for the national championship: Oregon vs Nebraska

Week 6 (10/9) Rankings

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Boise State
4. TCU
5. Nebraska
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. Utah
9. Alabama
10. Stanford
11. Nevada
12. Michigan State
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona
15. Iowa
16. Wisconsin
17. Arkansas
18. North Carolina State
19. Florida State
20. Missouri
21. Air Force
22. Oklahoma State
23. Michigan
24. Mississippi State
25. LSU

Game of the week - #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan

The biggest game this week is debatable, but I'm going to focus on #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan. The game at 1:30 MDT on ABC.

Both teams have a close win against Notre Dame. Michigan has had a pretty easy schedule so far, while Michigan State has beat #20 Wisconsin. Michigan State has also played every game at home so far, while Michigan has had two road games. The last time these two teams played in Ann Arbor, Michigan State won 35-21. Michigan also finished 3-9 that year.

Michigan's pass defense has just been absolutely terrible this season. They're letting up 307 yards per game through the air and are dead last in the nation. They're also the only team letting up over 300 passing yards per game. Michigan State's passing offense has been pretty good (240 yards per game), but they've also been very efficient (passer rating 166). The Spartans have a better rushing offense than passing offense, but I would expect them to exploit this terrible Michigan defense by throwing the ball a lot.

Meanwhile, Michigan's pass offense is averaging .2 yards more per game and they have the nation's leading rusher in QB Denard Robinson. Michigan's offense is second in total yards and ninth in scoring. They are also first in sacks allowed and Michigan State is tied for 107th in sacks. Robinson should have plenty of time to throw the ball and a lot of room to scramble if he needs to. Michigan definitely has the edge on offense while Michigan State has the edge on defense.

Michigan's special teams will also need to improve as they're 88th in net punting and 99th and 104th in punt returns and kickoff returns. Michigan State is 8th in punt returns, so that could be a factor as Michigan State could be able to win the field position battle. But in order to do that, they need to stop Michigan's offense first.

This game should be close down to the wire. There should be a lot of points scored in this game with Michigan's offense being very effective and Michigan's defense being terrible. In the end, Denard Robinson makes the plays when he needs to and he will be the key of this game, as long as he doesn't get hurt. If he stays in all game, my prediction is Michigan 49, Michigan State 41.

Week 6 (10/9) Preview

Featured game of the week: #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan. This game will be covered later.

Thursday night game this week features two undefeated Big 12 teams, #7 Nebraska and Kansas State. (This was written before Nebraska's thrashing of Kansas State, but I hadn't finished the rest of this blog until now.) Kansas State is a little bit of a surprise but don't expect this to last long as they haven't beaten anyone other than UCLA and they have struggled in almost every game. Nebraska has the 4th best rushing offense and Kansas State has the 102nd best rushing defense. KSU will lose this game big and at least 3 more conference games.

How will Indiana look on the road against #2 Ohio State after the disappointing loss to Michigan? I'm guessing not good. They started 3-0 with one of the best passing offenses by playing horrible teams. The 3 opponents they beat have a combined record of 1-13 with the lone win by Towson in overtime over Coastal Carolina. It's about to turn into another ugly season in Indiana.

#19 South Carolina received it's first loss of the season last week when Auburn came back to beat them 35-27. This week they host #1 Alabama. It will be Alabama's third straight game against a ranked team. They struggled with Arkansas on the road but beat Florida handily at home. This is on the road again for Alabama and I expect them to struggle early in the game. But after about a quarter they'll settle and blow out South Carolina. Alabama has the best scoring defense in the nation, allowing only 9 points per game. South Carolina is not in the top 40 in scoring, passing, rushing, or total offense or defense, with the exception of scoring defense where they are ranked 33rd. The one thing that will keep South Carolina in the game for a while is going to be sacks. They are averaging 3 sacks per game which is 11th in the country, while Alabama is allowing 2 sacks per game which is only 60th in the country. In the end, it won't be near enough and this game will be over by the end of the third quarter.

The game between UCLA and California should be an exciting game to watch. Both teams have one loss in the conference and both still play Oregon so they each need a win here. UCLA started 0-2 but has won three straight because of their running game. In those three wins they averaged 322 yards per game just on the ground and scored 12 total rushing touchdowns. The combination of Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman coming out of the backfield is proving to be very effective.

In another important Pac-10 game, Oregon State visits #9 Arizona. Oregon State is 2-2 but has lost two close games to non-AQ powerhouses Boise State and TCU. Despite winning two games and losing two close games, Oregon State is ranked 99th in total offense and 105th in total defense. The difference for them is they are an average +2 in the turnover margin, which is second best in the nation. They are also ranked third in punt returns and seventh in kickoff returns. They play the field position game very well, but their struggles on offense will make it difficult for them to have more than 5 wins in the Pac-10 as they still play Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, and Stanford. Three of those games are on the road. Arizona's pass offense and pass defense are both stellar, and they'll continue their undefeated season for at least three more weeks until they play at UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon in the space of four games. They'll be doing good if they can win two of those.

#12 LSU plays at #14 Florida. This game is the battle of the most overrated teams. The only game in which Florida has looked very good was against Kentucky. In the first game of the season, they only had about 25 yards in the first three quarters against Miami (OH) who went 1-11 last year. LSU on the other hand is undefeated. But barely fought off a comeback win against North Carolina (who had most of their starters out due to suspension). Last week LSU only beat Tennessee because they were off by two in counting to 11 (they had 13 players on the field). Florida will win this weekend and LSU will be 6-3 in a few weeks after losing to Auburn and Alabama.

Will we see Wide Right IIII (or whatever number we're on) this weekend when #23 Florida State plays #13 Miami? Well, those of us west of Colorado won't see it, thanks to ESPN putting this on ABC regional coverage with the USC-Stanford game and not doing a mirror. Each team has lost only one game and to a top ten team. Each team has an underachieving quarterback. But each team is also undefeated in the conference and looking to take control of their division with a win here. This game will be a defensive struggle. These two teams are the top two in sacks and tackles for loss, and neither team is very good at not allowing sacks. Both teams are in the top 21 in total defense and scoring defense. The big difference here is going to be Florida State getting into the backfield when Jacory Harris is trying to throw the ball. FSU averages 5.0 sacks per game and Harris has shown that he has a habit of making bad decisions. He has already thrown 8 interceptions in just 4 games. I expect him to be sacked and hurried often and throw at least three picks which will help Florida State win in a close game where they look outplayed on the stat sheet.

One other game worth mentioning here is USC at #16 Stanford. Stanford just had a very disappointing and frustrating loss at #3 Oregon. Now they get to play a game at home against a deflating USC team that just lost to Washington for the second straight year. I think Stanford will roll here and continue rolling as they have Washington State and Washington the next two weeks before playing at #9 Arizona.

Games I plan to watch at least some of (thanks ABC for not airing the FSU/Miami game here...):

Thursday 5:30 - #7 Nebraska at Kansas State (ESPN)
1:30 - #17 Michigan at #18 Michigan State (ABC/ESPN mirror) - on ABC here
1:30 - #1 Alabama at #19 South Carolina (CBS)
4:00 - Oregon State at #9 Arizona (Versus)
4:00 - San Diego State at BYU (The Mountain)
5:00 - #10 Utah at Iowa State (Fox College Sports)
5:30 - #8 Auburn at Kentucky (ESPN2)

Sun Belt Game of the Year

There will be football (college or NFL) every night this week. Tonight it's the game of the year for the Sun Belt conference, Troy vs Middle Tennessee State at 6:00 PM MDT on ESPN2. You might think that doesn't matter, and it probably doesn't. But this game has been exciting to watch recently, and both teams have surprised some BCS schools in the last few years. Both teams are 1-0 in conference play and this game will likely decide who wins the Sun Belt. They're the worst conference, but they're still a conference.

Tonight's game is especially interesting because it will be MTSU star QB Dwight Dasher's first game of the season. He was hit with a 4-game suspension at the beginning of the year and has been sitting out. Who's Dwight Dasher? He set the record for most rushing yards by a QB in a bowl game (201) last year in the New Orleans Bowl against Southern Miss. The Blue Raiders won the game 42-32 and brought them to 10-3, giving the Sun Belt their first ever 10-win season.

I thought last year that maybe the Sun Belt was closing the gap between them and the MAC and Conference-USA.  But so far this year, Troy and MTSU are 0-2 against the C-USA and 1-0 against the MAC. Not very impressive. Not to mention that the three teams with the best overall records are 2-2, and everyone else is either 1-3, 1-4, or 0-4. It looks like they're sticking to their old terrible ways (ULM's only win so far was by 1 against Southeastern Louisiana, for example), but this should be a fun game to watch tonight anyway.

Week 5 (10/2) Helmet Stickers

Denard Robinson and LaMichael James may have a permanent spot here if they keep playing this well. 3 helmet stickers in 4 games is not bad at all.

Robert Griffin (QB, Baylor) - vs Kansas. 26/36, 380 yards, 3 TDs, 8 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD.  This game was 48-7 midway through the third quarter.  Griffin is having a great year as a sophomore after his disappointing season ending injury early last year.  Baylor is off to a great start and will make some noise in the Big 12 with Griffin.

Denard Robinson ³ (QB, Michigan) - at Indiana. 10/16, 277 yards, 3 TDs, 19 carries, 217 yards, 2 TDs.  What can you even say about this guy anymore?  Just an incredible athlete.  He's on track to be a legitimate Heisman candidate.  His passer rating was 269.80 this week, his highest of the season.

DeMarco Murray (RB, Oklahoma) - vs Texas. 25 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs, 4 catches, 31 yards.  This was a big game and Murray gave the Sooners a couple touchdowns.  Murray is having a decent senior year, and this is his third 100-yard game.

Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech) - at NC State. 6 tackles (5 solo), 3 INTs, 4 PBUs.  Hosley is only a sophomore and has 4 picks in the last 2 games.  He was all over the place against NC State, and he made an interception with 1:27 remaining just one play after Virginia Tech took the lead.  He returned the interception to the 6 yard line, setting up the touchdown that put the game away.

Derrick Coleman (RB, UCLA) - vs Washington State. 15 carries, 185 yards, 3 TDs.  It's not this guy.  After getting a rough start, UCLA has won 3 in a row with a lot of help from a great pair in the backfield.  Johnathan Franklin also deserves some credit here as he had 30 carries for 216 yards and 1 TD.  This running game has been almost impossible to stop the last 3 games.  We'll see how they do the next 3 against Cal, Oregon, and Arizona.

LaMichael James ³ (RB, Oregon) - vs Stanford. 31 carries, 257 yards, 3 TDs.  James was the backbone of the Oregon offense as they came back against Stanford.  He is only a sophomore but playing at a level above everyone else right now.  In 4 games played, he has 712 yards and 7 touchdowns, and leading the nation in rushing yards by anyone who isn't a QB.  He is also averaging 8.0 yards per carry, which is good enough for seventh in the nation.

Via Taua (RB, Nevada) - at UNLV. 19 carries, 188 yards, 3 TDs, 2 catches, 17 yards, 1 TD.  Someone on Nevada besides Kaepernick played well enough to get some recognition.  Taua has now had 4 straight 100-yard games rushing and has scored a touchdown in every game this year.

A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) - at Colorado. 7 catches, 119 yards, 2 TDs, 1 carry, 40 yards.  Georgia is 1-4 for the first time since 1993, but A.J. Green is finally back and had a big impact in another losing effort on Saturday.  He had one rush for 40 yards which sparked the offense when they were down 14-3 in the second quarter, then caught his first TD pass 4 plays later.

Bryant Moniz (QB, Hawaii) - vs Louisiana Tech. 42/58, 532 yards, 4 TDs, 9 carries, 49 yards.  Moniz accounted for almost 600 yards of total offense in Hawaii's bi-yearly thrashing of Louisiana Tech at home.  He should thank his top two WRs Kealoha Pilares and Greg Salas who had 217 yards and 197 yards and 2 touchdowns each.

Week 5 (10/2) Thoughts

Great job by Utah State of just demolishing BYU.  BYU is struggling big time and Utah State is on the rise, so I'm not surprised at all that Utah State won this game at home.  But being up 31-3 in the third quarter was very impressive.  I expect Utah State to win the majority of their WAC games (only losing to Nevada and Boise State) and go to to bowl game for the first time in over a decade at 7-5 if there is a spot available for a 4th team.  Losing to Fresno State may have cost them a postseason.

One of the biggest head turning games this weekend was Baylor beating Kansas 55-7.  I know that Kansas is having a pretty bad year (lost to North Dakota State 6-3), but they have also beat 2 FBS teams already (Georgia Tech and New Mexico State).  Plus, this is Baylor we're talking about and the score was 48-7 with 6 1/2 minutes left in the third quarter.  I'm not ready to give Baylor too much credit yet as they've had a really soft schedule aside from TCU and they got blown out at TCU, but they're 4-1 and could make some noise in the Big 12.  Robert Griffin will need to continue to play well, and even play better than he has been, if they want to have more than 3 conference wins this year.  I'm guessing they'll win their next two games against Texas Tech and Colorado, make their way into the rankings, then lose most (if not all) of their remaining games and sneak into a bowl game.

Auburn blew out Louisiana-Monroe.  No surprise here as ULM is absolutely terrible as usual.  The only reason this game is worth mentioning is because after about 4 1/2 minutes Auburn had 4 plays, 162 yards, and 2 touchdowns with a 14-0 lead.  Auburn will be 10-1 going into Tuscaloosa on November 26 in a game that will decide the division.

After watching Jacory Harris a number of times, I still don't get what all the hype is about.  Sure, he's athletic and makes some good plays.  But that guys makes some of the dumbest plays I've seen in college football.  Against Clemson he completed a whopping 39% of his passes and threw 2 picks (one of which was in the endzone).  But he also threw 4 touchdowns, so he seems to get a free pass on everything else.  Sadly, he was the best QB in the game as Kyle Parker completed one more pass but had 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.  Miami is actually looking pretty good, in large part because of their defense which forced 6 turnovers.  We should find out a lot about the Hurricanes this weekend as they host Florida State.  They also get North Carolina and Virginia Tech at home, so they'll be winning the Coastal division with 1 conference loss (to either FSU or UNC).

Northwestern has managed to stay undefeated along with 3 other Big Ten teams.  But they also beat Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, and Minnesota by a combined 8 points.  Each of those teams has 1 win against FBS teams.  So while they deserve some credit for being 5-0, they'll make it to 6-0 when they beat Purdue this week.  After that, they could end up 6-6 with games against Michigan State, Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin.  This year they got lucky and didn't get Michigan or Ohio State on their schedule.

The Red River Rivalry was not as close as I thought it would be.  Oklahoma seems to be for real now, which is why I finally have them in the top 10.  Texas made it close at the end of the fourth quarter, and looked like they could tie it up, but then fumbled on a punt with about a minute to go.  What a disappointing loss for them.  Texas has now lost 2 straight and will make it 3 after their bye week because they play at Nebraska.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma's only remotely difficult games will be at Missouri and at Oklahoma State.  Oklahoma and Nebraska don't play in the regular season, but it looks pretty certain that they'll play for the Big 12 championship and both teams have a good shot of being 12-0 at that point.

Denard Robinson continues to be such a force for Michigan.  Against Indiana he had 494 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The only other player with any carries was Vincent Smith who carried the ball 9 times for 80 yards.  Eventually, teams are going to figure out how to stop Robinson and Michigan will start losing.  We'll see how good this 5-0 Michigan team really is the next two weeks as they play Michigan State and Iowa.  They also finish the season with Wisconsin and Ohio State.  I think Michigan will continue to roll over the mediocre and bad Big Ten teams, but lose 3 out of 4 against the top teams.

It looks like Virginia Tech may be back on track with their close win over NC State.  NC State led the game for 3 quarters, and had a 30-28 lead with a couple minutes to go.  But Virginia Tech scored two touchdowns in the last minutes and a half.  Russell Wilson continues to be inconsistent for NC State.  He's a three-year starter and is a junior.  He could be the best quarterback in the ACC next year (unless Jacory Harris improves).  NC State's toughest remaining game is a home game against Florida State on October 28 and it is after a bye week.  That game will decide the Atlantic division.

LSU is just bad.  They should have lost at home to Tennessee but because the Vols can't count (How do you get THIRTEEN players on the field???), they came away with the win.  In the next 4 games, they face Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and McNeese State.  They'll lose all 3 SEC games and nobody will be talking about them anymore.  They'll lose against Arkansas at the end of the season and finish 8-4.

Alabama is looking pretty good after blowing out a struggling Florida team.  Florida never had a chance in the game, and Alabama stays at #1 for me as they've played a tougher schedule than Oregon.  Alabama and Auburn will probably both be undefeated on November 26 (if Auburn can beat Arkansas at home).  The SEC East is just a mess.  Who is going to come out of that division to lose against Alabama/Auburn?

Oregon should a LOT of heart against Stanford.  Two early turnovers and Stanford was up 21-3 in the first quarter, stunning everyone in Autzen Stadium.  The entire Oregon offense (Darron Thomas in particular) kept their cool and just kept on going, scoring three touchdowns in the second quarter.  Coaching decision of the week would probably have to go to Chip Kelly for calling a surprise onside kick in the second quarter, which gave Oregon the ball back to make it a one score game.  After getting down 21-3, Oregon outscored Stanford 49-10 in the last 3 quarters.  One reason Oregon is undefeated and will stay undefeated the rest of the season is that they have let up only 7 points in the second half all year.

There's a good chance that we'll have 6 undefeated teams at the end of the season.  Auburn/Alabama, Nebraska/Oklahoma, Oregon, Ohio State, TCU/Utah, and Boise State.  One (or some) of those teams is bound to slip up somewhere, but it looks like that's what we could be looking at come December.  If that's the case, who gets into the championship game?  My guess is Ohio State vs Alabama (or Nebraska/Oklahoma if Bama loses).

Week 5 (10/2) Rankings

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Arizona
7. Nebraska
8. Oklahoma
9. Stanford
10. Utah
11. Nevada
12. Auburn
13. Iowa
14. Miami (FL)
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. Arkansas
18. Michigan
19. South Carolina
20. Missouri
21. North Carolina State
22. Northwestern
23. Oklahoma State
24. Kansas State
25. Florida

Game of the week - #9 Stanford at #4 Oregon

The biggest game this week is Stanford at Oregon and will give either team a big edge on the Pac-10 for the rest of the year.

I think that Stanford's road schedule so far is going to help them a lot. They may not have played good teams on the road, but they've played in big, historical stadiums playing at UCLA and Notre Dame. I can't imagine the crowd noise at Notre Dame was nearly as loud as Autzen, but at least they've got some experience there. One thing that could get them off to a slow start is that Andrew Luck and Stefan Taylor have never actually played at Autzen. Luck was a Freshman the last time Stanford played there, and Taylor wasn't even on the team (unless he red-shirted).

The key to the game for Stanford is going to be to get off to a good start. It will be a loud crowd, and Oregon can put up points in a hurry. One thing to watch for is going to be when Stanford punts. Stanford let up a 70 yard punt return TD against Sacramento State (in the first quarter, so starters were still in), and they're 84th in the nation in net punting with just 34 net yards per punt. Oregon already has 3 punt return TDs this year, so that's going to be something to watch that could be a big factor in this game.

Another big statistic is going to be turnovers. Oregon is currently leading the country in turnover margin at 2.75. That is a HUGE margin. There are only 5 teams in the country right now with at least a +2 turnover margin, and 4 of them are undefeated (the other is 3-1 Army).

I expect Oregon to rely heavily on the running game. LaMichael James is second in the nation in rushing yards per game behind QB Denard Robinson. Stanford may have to, also. Andrew Luck has been incredibly efficient throwing the ball with a 11-2 TD-INT ratio, but Oregon has the second best pass efficiency defense in the country. Now, it has been shown that statistically a team's Pass Efficiency Differential (Pass Efficiency Offense minus Pass Efficiency Defense) has been linked to certain outcomes of games. Stanford's PED is 77.69 and Oregon's is 61.7. That's a difference of 15.99, and teams with a PED Diff of 0-25 won 62.3% of the time  from 2003-2009 by an average of 4.9 points.

So, Oregon has the better running game (by about 100 yards), better special teams, and forces more turnovers (Oregon has forced NINE interceptions). But Stanford has the edge in the passing game and a slight edge with the pass efficiency differential (even though Oregon has the second most efficient pass defense in the country).

I think that Stanford is going to keep the game close because of Luck's ability to make plays and because they're a more physical team and will completely wear out Oregon. But, in the end, Oregon's special teams and forcing turnovers on defense will be the difference. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come down to the last play. My prediction is Oregon 39, Stanford 34.

Week 5 (10/2) Preview

One-third of the regular season is gone for most teams, unbelievable.  4 games down and still 24 undefeated teams (taking out Texas A&M).  First off, let's talk about the game last night.  I missed a lot of it because I was at a car dealership most of the night buying a car for my wife, but they had the game on there so I caught a little bit of it.  Texas A&M ran 106 offensive plays, compared to just 68 of Oklahoma State.  I would be giving praise to Jerrod Johnson for his 400+ yards passing and 5 TDs, but he also had 4 INTs and 1 fumble.  One of those interceptions set up the game winning field goal for Oklahoma State.  Good game and I'm sad I missed most of it.

There are a few big marquee matchups this week.  There are currently 6 undefeated teams in the Big 10, and four of them (#11 Wisconsin at #24 Michigan State, #19 Michigan at Indiana) play this weekend.  I would be more interested in the Wisconsin-Michigan State game if there weren't some of the others going on.

The Red River Rivalry game is tomorrow, and that is always a game that shapes the Big 12 south.  #21 Texas is coming off an embarrassing loss at home to UCLA and #8 Oklahoma has struggled in 3 of their 4 games so far this year.  It will be interesting to see which team is able to shake off the rust and get their wheels going for the rest of the season.  One important difference between the two teams: Texas plays Nebraska (Oct. 16), Oklahoma doesn't.

#7 Florida and #1 Alabama will be playing what is likely to be a preview of the SEC championship game.  One of them will have an early loss this season and it could go either way.  Florida's offense struggled until last week against Kentucky and Alabama finally had a real test (and passed) on the road at Arkansas last week.

#9 Stanford and #4 Oregon face off in the Pac-10 game of the year and this is the game I am most excited for this weekend.  I'll post more about this game in a minute.

Tonight has an intriguing matchup.  BYU travels to Utah State and both teams are 1-3 with their seasons spiraling out of control.  Utah State looked much improved but has fallen apart since then.  BYU has just been bad, and is scoring the fifth least number of points in the country.  They have scored just 23 points in the last 11 quarters.  After Utah State the Cougars play San Diego State and TCU, so they need a win here to avoid a possible 1-6 start.

The Big Ten gets conference play underway this week.  Wisconsin and Michigan has been mentioned.  Michigan has looked impressive at times and travels to Indiana this week.  Last year Michigan needs a comeback to beat Indiana at home, so they could struggle again in this game.  Northwestern is undefeated but has had a weak schedule and barely beat Vanderbilt and Central Michigan, so they could be taken out by Minnesota (who has lost to South Dakota and Northern Illinois).

One other game to watch will be the annual Navy-Air Force game.  Navy has won the last seven meetings by an average of only 5.7 points and only one was by more than one touchdown.  Air Force has a better team this year and might be able to end that streak.  Air Force will also be wearing Thunderbird themed uniforms.

Here are the games I plan on watching at least some of this week (times are MDT - why do they have to play the Florida-Alabama and Stanford-Oregon games at the same time??):

Friday 6:00 - BYU at Utah State (ESPN)
10:00 - Louisiana-Monroe at #10 Auburn (ESPNU)
10:00 - #16 Miami at Clemson (ESPN2)
10:00 - Northwestern at Minnesota (ESPN)
12:30 - Navy at Air Force (Versus) - Air Force will be sporting Thunderbird themed uniforms
1:30 - #19 Michigan at Indiana (ESPNU)
1:30 - #21 Texas vs #8 Oklahoma (ABC)
1:30 - Virginia Tech  at #23 NC State (ABC/ESPN mirror) - Wish I was getting this game on the mirror
6:00 - #7 Florida at #1 Alabama (CBS)
6:00 - #9 Stanford at #4 Oregon (ABC/ESPN2 mirror) - Will be on ABC here