Auburn has Heisman hopeful Cam Newton. LSU has the third ranked defense. One of those has got to give as the two remaining undefeated SEC teams play this weekend. Both teams have had a few close games, but LSU has won a couple games off complete luck. Tennessee had the game won when LSU had a bad snap on the final play of the game. But Tennessee also had 13 players on the field, and LSU scored with their second chance play. Then they needed a perfect bounce into the arms of the kicker on a field goal to beat Florida. They have found ways to win despite having the 92nd ranked offense in the country.
Cam Newton has been a complete monster this season. He is ranked 11th in total offense, and accounts for 305 of Auburn's 481 yards each game. Also in the backfield they have Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb who are gaining over 50 yards per game on the ground. Mario Fannin has been a decent running the ball but is a good receiving back. He has 137 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving so far on the year. The Auburn backs don't lose yards often, either. They have the sixth best rushing offense in the country. The passing offense is only 76th in total yards, but Newton is the second most efficient passer. He makes good use of the passing downs. That adds up to 40 points per game which is good enough for sixth in the country.
Match all that up against the LSU defense. They are only allowing 242 yards per game which is third in the nation. They allow 83 yards on the ground (6th best) and 158 yards through the air (8th best). They only allow 14 points per game, which is 11th best. They also sack the opposing QB three times per game. The LSU defense has just been completely solid. They also get about 7 1/2 tackles for loss each game, so Auburn may be moving backwards more than they are used to.
Auburn's defense has struggled a lot this year, especially against the pass. They allow 266 yards per game through the air, which 108th in the country. Lucky for them, LSU only throws the ball for 140 yards per game which is bad enough for 113th in that category. They also have terrible passing efficiency (ranked 106th). Their rushing offense looks pretty good statistically, but one reason for that is because most teams throw the ball on them. LSU will probably get their passing game going better than they have the rest of the year against the struggling Auburn defense.
One thing to watch may be when Auburn punts. Auburn has struggled punting the ball effectively (34 net yards per punt) and LSU is averaging 18 yards per return. Also, Auburn has a slight advantage in the turnover department, leading LSU there .57 to -.29. I don't expect special teams or turnovers to have a big impact on this game, but they could lead to a couple big, important plays.
LSU has been pretty consistent with their play throughout the four quarters this season, while Auburn (especially the defense) seems to just come alive in the fourth quarter. Against Arkansas, they forced 3 turnovers in the fourth quarter and scored 28 points in 5 minutes. Against South Carolina, they forced turnovers on all 4 of the Gamecocks' possessions. LSU had better be ready for a 4th quarter ambush if this game is close.
Overall, I think that LSU has been extremely lucky with the way they have won games, but a large part of that is because they haven't been able to get the offense going. Their defense has been nothing but spectacular this year (McNeese St had a touchdown handed to them by LSU's offense). But Auburn's Cam Newton is going to be a little too much to handle and Auburn will put up more points than anyone else has this year against them (the most was Florida with 29). Jordan Jefferson has already thrown 15 interceptions through 7 games but I expect that he'll play pretty well for most of the game before throwing a couple picks in the 4th quarter of this game and the Auburn offense will make them pay for it. It will be close for 3 quarters and Auburn will pull away, making this win look more impressive than it really is. Auburn wins, 44-24.
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