I'm not going to take the time right now to do a preview of the entire week so I'll just do a quick preview of the game tonight since I really don't want to miss it with this game. I said after Week 3 that this game was going to decide the ACC Atlantic, and it looks like that could be on track to be right. Right now, Florida State is on top of the division at 4-0 and they should win the rest of their conference games. NC State is tied for second with Maryland at 2-1, but Maryland still has to play Florida State, Virginia Tech, and NC State. I feel like both Florida State and NC State will be on top of the division at the end of the season with this game deciding who goes to the ACC Championship.
Florida State's pass offense has been extremely disappointing this year. Christian Ponder was being talked about as a preseason Heisman candidate but is only ranked 59th in passing efficiency. He has completed just 60% of his passes for 12 TDs and 7 INTs. The only game that I feel like he looked great in was the season opener against Samford. However, FSU has a good running game. They spread the carries around a lot, and their 4 backs (including Ponder) all have between 46 and 70 carries on the season. If you take out Ponder, the other 3 backs average 6.9 yards per carry and have 12 touchdowns. That's a very effective rushing attack.
NC State's offense is centered around Junior QB Russell Wilson. At times, Wilson has been the best quarterback in the conference, but he is also extremely inconsistent. He threw 3 interceptions in each of their 2 losses. He has also thrown for over 300 yards the last 5 games. He's going to need to step up and make some plays in order for them to get a win here. RB Mustafa Greene has been good running the ball, but they're going to need more than that to beat Florida State tonight.
Florida State's defense is returning to what most fans remember. They are ranked 20th in total defense and 13th in scoring defense as well as 1st in sacks (4.29 per game) and 5th in tackles per loss (8.43 per game). The sacks and tackles for loss will be important tonight. NC State is allowing 2.43 sacks per game, and I expect FSU to sack Wilson at least 4 times which will lead to him making some bad decisions.
I think the key to think game is going to be Russell Wilson. Florida State will play solid offense regardless of what happens and if they can secure the ball, they'll be able to put up a lot of points. If they can force Wilson to make some bad plays and turn the ball over, I think they'll win by a lot. If Wilson steps up and makes plays, FSU still wins but only by a few. I'm picking Florida State here 38-17, but it will be a lot closer than the score indicates.
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