Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Week 5 (10/2) Thoughts

Great job by Utah State of just demolishing BYU.  BYU is struggling big time and Utah State is on the rise, so I'm not surprised at all that Utah State won this game at home.  But being up 31-3 in the third quarter was very impressive.  I expect Utah State to win the majority of their WAC games (only losing to Nevada and Boise State) and go to to bowl game for the first time in over a decade at 7-5 if there is a spot available for a 4th team.  Losing to Fresno State may have cost them a postseason.

One of the biggest head turning games this weekend was Baylor beating Kansas 55-7.  I know that Kansas is having a pretty bad year (lost to North Dakota State 6-3), but they have also beat 2 FBS teams already (Georgia Tech and New Mexico State).  Plus, this is Baylor we're talking about and the score was 48-7 with 6 1/2 minutes left in the third quarter.  I'm not ready to give Baylor too much credit yet as they've had a really soft schedule aside from TCU and they got blown out at TCU, but they're 4-1 and could make some noise in the Big 12.  Robert Griffin will need to continue to play well, and even play better than he has been, if they want to have more than 3 conference wins this year.  I'm guessing they'll win their next two games against Texas Tech and Colorado, make their way into the rankings, then lose most (if not all) of their remaining games and sneak into a bowl game.

Auburn blew out Louisiana-Monroe.  No surprise here as ULM is absolutely terrible as usual.  The only reason this game is worth mentioning is because after about 4 1/2 minutes Auburn had 4 plays, 162 yards, and 2 touchdowns with a 14-0 lead.  Auburn will be 10-1 going into Tuscaloosa on November 26 in a game that will decide the division.

After watching Jacory Harris a number of times, I still don't get what all the hype is about.  Sure, he's athletic and makes some good plays.  But that guys makes some of the dumbest plays I've seen in college football.  Against Clemson he completed a whopping 39% of his passes and threw 2 picks (one of which was in the endzone).  But he also threw 4 touchdowns, so he seems to get a free pass on everything else.  Sadly, he was the best QB in the game as Kyle Parker completed one more pass but had 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.  Miami is actually looking pretty good, in large part because of their defense which forced 6 turnovers.  We should find out a lot about the Hurricanes this weekend as they host Florida State.  They also get North Carolina and Virginia Tech at home, so they'll be winning the Coastal division with 1 conference loss (to either FSU or UNC).

Northwestern has managed to stay undefeated along with 3 other Big Ten teams.  But they also beat Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, and Minnesota by a combined 8 points.  Each of those teams has 1 win against FBS teams.  So while they deserve some credit for being 5-0, they'll make it to 6-0 when they beat Purdue this week.  After that, they could end up 6-6 with games against Michigan State, Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin.  This year they got lucky and didn't get Michigan or Ohio State on their schedule.

The Red River Rivalry was not as close as I thought it would be.  Oklahoma seems to be for real now, which is why I finally have them in the top 10.  Texas made it close at the end of the fourth quarter, and looked like they could tie it up, but then fumbled on a punt with about a minute to go.  What a disappointing loss for them.  Texas has now lost 2 straight and will make it 3 after their bye week because they play at Nebraska.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma's only remotely difficult games will be at Missouri and at Oklahoma State.  Oklahoma and Nebraska don't play in the regular season, but it looks pretty certain that they'll play for the Big 12 championship and both teams have a good shot of being 12-0 at that point.

Denard Robinson continues to be such a force for Michigan.  Against Indiana he had 494 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The only other player with any carries was Vincent Smith who carried the ball 9 times for 80 yards.  Eventually, teams are going to figure out how to stop Robinson and Michigan will start losing.  We'll see how good this 5-0 Michigan team really is the next two weeks as they play Michigan State and Iowa.  They also finish the season with Wisconsin and Ohio State.  I think Michigan will continue to roll over the mediocre and bad Big Ten teams, but lose 3 out of 4 against the top teams.

It looks like Virginia Tech may be back on track with their close win over NC State.  NC State led the game for 3 quarters, and had a 30-28 lead with a couple minutes to go.  But Virginia Tech scored two touchdowns in the last minutes and a half.  Russell Wilson continues to be inconsistent for NC State.  He's a three-year starter and is a junior.  He could be the best quarterback in the ACC next year (unless Jacory Harris improves).  NC State's toughest remaining game is a home game against Florida State on October 28 and it is after a bye week.  That game will decide the Atlantic division.

LSU is just bad.  They should have lost at home to Tennessee but because the Vols can't count (How do you get THIRTEEN players on the field???), they came away with the win.  In the next 4 games, they face Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and McNeese State.  They'll lose all 3 SEC games and nobody will be talking about them anymore.  They'll lose against Arkansas at the end of the season and finish 8-4.

Alabama is looking pretty good after blowing out a struggling Florida team.  Florida never had a chance in the game, and Alabama stays at #1 for me as they've played a tougher schedule than Oregon.  Alabama and Auburn will probably both be undefeated on November 26 (if Auburn can beat Arkansas at home).  The SEC East is just a mess.  Who is going to come out of that division to lose against Alabama/Auburn?

Oregon should a LOT of heart against Stanford.  Two early turnovers and Stanford was up 21-3 in the first quarter, stunning everyone in Autzen Stadium.  The entire Oregon offense (Darron Thomas in particular) kept their cool and just kept on going, scoring three touchdowns in the second quarter.  Coaching decision of the week would probably have to go to Chip Kelly for calling a surprise onside kick in the second quarter, which gave Oregon the ball back to make it a one score game.  After getting down 21-3, Oregon outscored Stanford 49-10 in the last 3 quarters.  One reason Oregon is undefeated and will stay undefeated the rest of the season is that they have let up only 7 points in the second half all year.

There's a good chance that we'll have 6 undefeated teams at the end of the season.  Auburn/Alabama, Nebraska/Oklahoma, Oregon, Ohio State, TCU/Utah, and Boise State.  One (or some) of those teams is bound to slip up somewhere, but it looks like that's what we could be looking at come December.  If that's the case, who gets into the championship game?  My guess is Ohio State vs Alabama (or Nebraska/Oklahoma if Bama loses).

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