Game of the week - #9 Stanford at #4 Oregon

The biggest game this week is Stanford at Oregon and will give either team a big edge on the Pac-10 for the rest of the year.

I think that Stanford's road schedule so far is going to help them a lot. They may not have played good teams on the road, but they've played in big, historical stadiums playing at UCLA and Notre Dame. I can't imagine the crowd noise at Notre Dame was nearly as loud as Autzen, but at least they've got some experience there. One thing that could get them off to a slow start is that Andrew Luck and Stefan Taylor have never actually played at Autzen. Luck was a Freshman the last time Stanford played there, and Taylor wasn't even on the team (unless he red-shirted).

The key to the game for Stanford is going to be to get off to a good start. It will be a loud crowd, and Oregon can put up points in a hurry. One thing to watch for is going to be when Stanford punts. Stanford let up a 70 yard punt return TD against Sacramento State (in the first quarter, so starters were still in), and they're 84th in the nation in net punting with just 34 net yards per punt. Oregon already has 3 punt return TDs this year, so that's going to be something to watch that could be a big factor in this game.

Another big statistic is going to be turnovers. Oregon is currently leading the country in turnover margin at 2.75. That is a HUGE margin. There are only 5 teams in the country right now with at least a +2 turnover margin, and 4 of them are undefeated (the other is 3-1 Army).

I expect Oregon to rely heavily on the running game. LaMichael James is second in the nation in rushing yards per game behind QB Denard Robinson. Stanford may have to, also. Andrew Luck has been incredibly efficient throwing the ball with a 11-2 TD-INT ratio, but Oregon has the second best pass efficiency defense in the country. Now, it has been shown that statistically a team's Pass Efficiency Differential (Pass Efficiency Offense minus Pass Efficiency Defense) has been linked to certain outcomes of games. Stanford's PED is 77.69 and Oregon's is 61.7. That's a difference of 15.99, and teams with a PED Diff of 0-25 won 62.3% of the time  from 2003-2009 by an average of 4.9 points.

So, Oregon has the better running game (by about 100 yards), better special teams, and forces more turnovers (Oregon has forced NINE interceptions). But Stanford has the edge in the passing game and a slight edge with the pass efficiency differential (even though Oregon has the second most efficient pass defense in the country).

I think that Stanford is going to keep the game close because of Luck's ability to make plays and because they're a more physical team and will completely wear out Oregon. But, in the end, Oregon's special teams and forcing turnovers on defense will be the difference. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game come down to the last play. My prediction is Oregon 39, Stanford 34.