Game of the week - #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan

The biggest game this week is debatable, but I'm going to focus on #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan. The game at 1:30 MDT on ABC.

Both teams have a close win against Notre Dame. Michigan has had a pretty easy schedule so far, while Michigan State has beat #20 Wisconsin. Michigan State has also played every game at home so far, while Michigan has had two road games. The last time these two teams played in Ann Arbor, Michigan State won 35-21. Michigan also finished 3-9 that year.

Michigan's pass defense has just been absolutely terrible this season. They're letting up 307 yards per game through the air and are dead last in the nation. They're also the only team letting up over 300 passing yards per game. Michigan State's passing offense has been pretty good (240 yards per game), but they've also been very efficient (passer rating 166). The Spartans have a better rushing offense than passing offense, but I would expect them to exploit this terrible Michigan defense by throwing the ball a lot.

Meanwhile, Michigan's pass offense is averaging .2 yards more per game and they have the nation's leading rusher in QB Denard Robinson. Michigan's offense is second in total yards and ninth in scoring. They are also first in sacks allowed and Michigan State is tied for 107th in sacks. Robinson should have plenty of time to throw the ball and a lot of room to scramble if he needs to. Michigan definitely has the edge on offense while Michigan State has the edge on defense.

Michigan's special teams will also need to improve as they're 88th in net punting and 99th and 104th in punt returns and kickoff returns. Michigan State is 8th in punt returns, so that could be a factor as Michigan State could be able to win the field position battle. But in order to do that, they need to stop Michigan's offense first.

This game should be close down to the wire. There should be a lot of points scored in this game with Michigan's offense being very effective and Michigan's defense being terrible. In the end, Denard Robinson makes the plays when he needs to and he will be the key of this game, as long as he doesn't get hurt. If he stays in all game, my prediction is Michigan 49, Michigan State 41.