Week 6 (10/9) Preview

Featured game of the week: #17 Michigan State at #18 Michigan. This game will be covered later.

Thursday night game this week features two undefeated Big 12 teams, #7 Nebraska and Kansas State. (This was written before Nebraska's thrashing of Kansas State, but I hadn't finished the rest of this blog until now.) Kansas State is a little bit of a surprise but don't expect this to last long as they haven't beaten anyone other than UCLA and they have struggled in almost every game. Nebraska has the 4th best rushing offense and Kansas State has the 102nd best rushing defense. KSU will lose this game big and at least 3 more conference games.

How will Indiana look on the road against #2 Ohio State after the disappointing loss to Michigan? I'm guessing not good. They started 3-0 with one of the best passing offenses by playing horrible teams. The 3 opponents they beat have a combined record of 1-13 with the lone win by Towson in overtime over Coastal Carolina. It's about to turn into another ugly season in Indiana.

#19 South Carolina received it's first loss of the season last week when Auburn came back to beat them 35-27. This week they host #1 Alabama. It will be Alabama's third straight game against a ranked team. They struggled with Arkansas on the road but beat Florida handily at home. This is on the road again for Alabama and I expect them to struggle early in the game. But after about a quarter they'll settle and blow out South Carolina. Alabama has the best scoring defense in the nation, allowing only 9 points per game. South Carolina is not in the top 40 in scoring, passing, rushing, or total offense or defense, with the exception of scoring defense where they are ranked 33rd. The one thing that will keep South Carolina in the game for a while is going to be sacks. They are averaging 3 sacks per game which is 11th in the country, while Alabama is allowing 2 sacks per game which is only 60th in the country. In the end, it won't be near enough and this game will be over by the end of the third quarter.

The game between UCLA and California should be an exciting game to watch. Both teams have one loss in the conference and both still play Oregon so they each need a win here. UCLA started 0-2 but has won three straight because of their running game. In those three wins they averaged 322 yards per game just on the ground and scored 12 total rushing touchdowns. The combination of Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman coming out of the backfield is proving to be very effective.

In another important Pac-10 game, Oregon State visits #9 Arizona. Oregon State is 2-2 but has lost two close games to non-AQ powerhouses Boise State and TCU. Despite winning two games and losing two close games, Oregon State is ranked 99th in total offense and 105th in total defense. The difference for them is they are an average +2 in the turnover margin, which is second best in the nation. They are also ranked third in punt returns and seventh in kickoff returns. They play the field position game very well, but their struggles on offense will make it difficult for them to have more than 5 wins in the Pac-10 as they still play Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, and Stanford. Three of those games are on the road. Arizona's pass offense and pass defense are both stellar, and they'll continue their undefeated season for at least three more weeks until they play at UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon in the space of four games. They'll be doing good if they can win two of those.

#12 LSU plays at #14 Florida. This game is the battle of the most overrated teams. The only game in which Florida has looked very good was against Kentucky. In the first game of the season, they only had about 25 yards in the first three quarters against Miami (OH) who went 1-11 last year. LSU on the other hand is undefeated. But barely fought off a comeback win against North Carolina (who had most of their starters out due to suspension). Last week LSU only beat Tennessee because they were off by two in counting to 11 (they had 13 players on the field). Florida will win this weekend and LSU will be 6-3 in a few weeks after losing to Auburn and Alabama.

Will we see Wide Right IIII (or whatever number we're on) this weekend when #23 Florida State plays #13 Miami? Well, those of us west of Colorado won't see it, thanks to ESPN putting this on ABC regional coverage with the USC-Stanford game and not doing a mirror. Each team has lost only one game and to a top ten team. Each team has an underachieving quarterback. But each team is also undefeated in the conference and looking to take control of their division with a win here. This game will be a defensive struggle. These two teams are the top two in sacks and tackles for loss, and neither team is very good at not allowing sacks. Both teams are in the top 21 in total defense and scoring defense. The big difference here is going to be Florida State getting into the backfield when Jacory Harris is trying to throw the ball. FSU averages 5.0 sacks per game and Harris has shown that he has a habit of making bad decisions. He has already thrown 8 interceptions in just 4 games. I expect him to be sacked and hurried often and throw at least three picks which will help Florida State win in a close game where they look outplayed on the stat sheet.

One other game worth mentioning here is USC at #16 Stanford. Stanford just had a very disappointing and frustrating loss at #3 Oregon. Now they get to play a game at home against a deflating USC team that just lost to Washington for the second straight year. I think Stanford will roll here and continue rolling as they have Washington State and Washington the next two weeks before playing at #9 Arizona.

Games I plan to watch at least some of (thanks ABC for not airing the FSU/Miami game here...):

Thursday 5:30 - #7 Nebraska at Kansas State (ESPN)
1:30 - #17 Michigan at #18 Michigan State (ABC/ESPN mirror) - on ABC here
1:30 - #1 Alabama at #19 South Carolina (CBS)
4:00 - Oregon State at #9 Arizona (Versus)
4:00 - San Diego State at BYU (The Mountain)
5:00 - #10 Utah at Iowa State (Fox College Sports)
5:30 - #8 Auburn at Kentucky (ESPN2)