Auburn is undefeated, Arkansas lost one game by four against then first-ranked Alabama in a game where Arkansas had the lead 20-7 near the end of the third quarter. Both teams have had their share of close wins. Arkansas needed a last minute touchdown to beat Georgia and withstood a comeback by Texas A&M to win by 7. Auburn has beat Mississippi State, South Carolina, Clemson (OT), and Kentucky by one possession or less. Auburn also needed to come back against South Carolina and Clemson.
I think that coming back is going to be the story of this game. Arkansas blew the lead to lose against Alabama. Arkansas had a two touchdown lead midway through the fourth quarter and Georgia came back to tie it. Auburn was down 17-0 before the last play of the half against Clemson and came back and won in overtime. Auburn was down 20-7 in the second quarter to South Carolina and down 27-21 going into the fourth before forcing turnovers on all four of South Carolina's possessions in the fourth quarter.
Auburn QB Cam Newton is 2nd in the nation in pass efficiency, 17th in rushing, and 12th in total offense. He seems to be their entire offense at times, but Arkansas' run defense is 43rd in the country so he'll probably have a lot of running room. Arkansas has the 3rd best pass offense in the country and Auburn is 91st in pass defense. I expect a lot of points to be put up by both teams. It could come down to whoever has the ball last wins.
Arkansas has had a halftime lead in every game, and I think they'll lead Auburn early in this game. But Cam Newton is going to be the difference maker to lead Auburn back into the game and keep the Tigers undefeated. Home field advantage will also be a factor in the comeback. Auburn wins 38-34.
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