There are 4 games between ranked teams this week. The game of the week is #6 LSU at #4 Auburn.
The Thursday night game this week is UCLA at #2 Oregon. UCLA is going to need to have an incredible game to even have a chance here. Oregon has the third best rushing offense and UCLA has the 92nd best rushing defense. The UCLA rushing attack has been potent at times, but Oregon's run defense should be good enough to contain them. Watch the turnovers in this game. UCLA's turnover margin is -.67 and Oregon's is +1.5. I expect a big game for LaMichael James and a big win for Oregon.
#13 Wisconsin will be pretty high from their win over top ranked Ohio State and they travel to #15 Iowa this week. The biggest factor that I see in this game is whether or not Wisconsin can run the ball. Iowa is only allowing 83 yards per game on the ground, while Wisconsin is gaining 232. Wisconsin will probably be forced to throw the ball some and Iowa's pass defense lets up some yards, but they don't allow for a very efficient defense. Wisconsin doesn't throw for many yards but are very efficient when they do throw it. Iowa should rely on their passing defense this week as they're ranked third in passing efficiency and Wisconsin is ranked 70th in pass efficiency defense. Iowa also has the advantage in turnover margin with +1.33 compared to Wisconsin's +.29. I'm not completely sold on Iowa this year, but I think that with the game being at home and Wisconsin being overconfident after their big win, I think that Iowa will come away with the upset this week having the advantage on defense and the passing game.
Texas beating #16 Nebraska may actually end up being a good thing for Nebraska. They play at #14 Oklahoma State this week, who just happens to be undefeated. I think that after losing to Texas at home, Nebraska is going to come out with something to prove and trying to save their season. Oklahoma State has had an amazing passing attack this year, averaging 361 yards per game and an efficiency rating of 165. But Nebraska is #1 in pass defense and pass efficiency defense. I think Nebraska will get back on track with a big road win over undefeated Oklahoma State.
Another big game in the Big 12 this week is #1 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri. Both teams are undefeated and both teams need this win. Statistically, neither of these teams has been too incredible in more than 1 or 2 areas. Oklahoma's turnover margin is +1.5 (Missouri's is +.83) and Missouri is only allowing 10.83 points per game. Both teams average around 3 sacks and 8 tackles per loss. Missouri has been better on defense and Oklahoma has been slightly better on offense. This game is at Missouri and Oklahoma's only road game this season was at Cincinnati, a game they won by two points. Looking at this game statistically, it's a toss up. Oklahoma has shown up in all of their big games (Texas made it close late) and Missouri has had three straight impressive wins after they needed a last minute touchdown to beat San Diego State at home. I think DeMarco Murray has a big game this week. This could be a third straight loss for a #1 team, but I think that Missouri hasn't been tested enough and they'll slip up late in the game to lose. Oklahoma has played in some close games and they'll win this one close.
A big game in the Pac-10 is Washington at #18 Arizona. Both teams are 2-1 in the conference and both teams still have Stanford and Oregon on their schedule. To have any shot at a Pac-10 title, this is a must win for both teams. Yes, Washington at 3-3 still has a shot at the conference. They should win their last 3 games of the season so if they can get through the next 3 tough games with 2 wins, they could be a contender if one of those wins is against Oregon. But it won't be. 2 of Washington's wins came on the last play of the game. One was a field goal against USC and the other was a failed 2-point conversion in double overtime by Oregon State. They also lost to BYU and Arizona State. Arizona's only loss was by two points against Oregon State. Arizona is in the top 10 in passing offense, rushing defense, scoring defense, kickoff returns, sacks, and tackles for loss. Washington's highest ranked team category is sacks allowed, which they are 34th. Arizona should win by at least 2 touchdowns at home.
After this week there will be at least two less undefeated teams, leaving at most 8. All of those are ranked in the top 14 in the first edition of the BCS standings, and all but two are in the top 10. Almost every undefeated team has at least a remote shot at the national championship if things fall their way. It should be an exciting finish to the season.
EDIT: It's late Friday night and I just realized I didn't post the list of games I want to watch this week. My time will be limited since I'm going to the Utah game this weekend, but these are the games I'd like to watch at least part of (What's up with the morning games lately?).
Thursday 7:00 - UCLA at #2 Oregon (ESPN)
10:00 - #7 Michigan State at Northwestern (ESPN)
1:30 - #6 LSU at #4 Auburn (CBS)
1:30 - #16 Nebraska at #14 Oklahoma State (ABC/ESPN)
1:30 - #13 Wisconsin at #15 Iowa (ABC/ESPN)
4:00 - Colorado State at #9 Utah (The Mountain)
5:00 - #8 Alabama at Tennessee (ESPN)
6:00 - #1 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri (ABC)
6:00 - Air Force at #5 TCU (CBS College Sports)
8:15 - Washington at #18 Arizona (ESPN)
No comments:
Post a Comment