Utah at BYU Preview

Well, I feel pretty stupid for picking Toledo to upset Boise State. They got blown out 40-15 and allowed over 600 yards passing. But I was right about LSU's defense shutting down Mississippi State's run game. Now, on to Utah's game this week.

It's weird to have the Utah/BYU rivalry game in September. It's also weird to not really care about the game more than any other game, it just feels like another non-conference game.

Both teams have really struggled so far offensively. Utah is only 75th in rushing (136 YPG), 95th in passing (169.5 YPG), 97th in total offense (305.5 YPG), and 93rd in scoring offense (20.5 PPG). BYU is even worse, ranking 113th in rushing offense (67 YPG), 76th in passing offense (208.5 YPG), 108th in total offense (275.5 YPG), and 107th in scoring offense (15 PPG). BYU has played a bit tougher competition, playing at Ole Miss and at Texas. Utah played Montana State but they did play at USC, so that might even out the competition a little bit.

On defense, both teams have been mediocre but BYU's pass defense has been pretty good. Utah ranks 46th in rushing defense (113.5 YPG), 66th in passing defense (223.5 YPG), 45th in total defense (337 YPG), and 34th in scoring defense (16.5 PPG). BYU ranks 48th in rushing defense (115 YPG), 16th in passing defense (113.5 YPG), 22nd in total defense (248.5 YPG), and 29th in scoring defense (15 PPG). Utah's scoring defense could actually be considered better, since the touchdown on a blocked field goal against USC ended up counting, so it's really more like 13.5 PPG.

I see Utah having an edge in a couple important categories. Utah has been able to run the ball quite a bit better than BYU, and the team that lead the game in rushing has won the last two games in the series. It seems that the team that controls the line of scrimmage better almost always wins this game. Utah's defensive front will give BYU a lot of trouble running the ball. Utah may not run the ball extremely well, but it might be just good enough to give them a pretty good edge.

The other area where Utah has the edge is taking care of the football. Another important statistic in this rivalry is turnovers. The team that wins the turnover battle has won the game the last three years. Utah has only turned the ball over once, and they average +2 in turnovers per game. BYU has turned the ball over 3 times (all interceptions), and they average +.5 in turnovers per game. If Utah can come up with a couple key turnovers, that will give them a big edge.

With both teams really struggling on offense so far this year, this could be a pretty low scoring game. Or maybe one or both teams will find their stride offensively. Or maybe the defense will create some turnovers that give the offense easy points and there will be more points scored. I think there will be a couple turnovers, but it will be a pretty low scoring game. The matchup here will Utah's defensive front shutting down the run and getting pressure on BYU QB Jake Heaps. I think they're up to it, and they'll keep BYU's defense on the field and wear them down in the second half.

My pick is Utah 20, BYU 17.