Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Week 3 (9/17) Preview

There are a couple of big games this weekend, and one HUGE game that will have national championship implications. That one game is #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State. Now that we're a couple weeks into the season, I'll start doing a game of the week after the preview. Obviously, that will be the game of the week this time around.

On Thursday night, we've got a rare weeknight SEC matchup. #3 LSU plays at #25 Mississippi State. In fact, other than opening weekend, this is the only SEC game on a Thursday. The big matchup here will be Mississippi State's rush offense against LSU's rush defense. LSU is 8th in the nation in rush defense (45.5 YPG), and that includes a game against Oregon. Sure, it was against Northwestern State, but LSU held them to -4 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Mississippi State is 6th in the nation in rush offense (321 YPG), and they ran the ball 63 times for 333 yards against Auburn last week. LSU's offense isn't too good, but the defense puts them in great position with short fields and adds points too. If MSU can have a decent day running the ball, then they will have a chance to win this game since it is a night game at home. But if Oregon could only rush for 95 yards (3.4 YPC) on LSU, how will MSU get many more yards? Plus, this is a short week and Mississippi State is coming off a very tough, phyical loss to Auburn.

#4 Boise State travels to Toledo on Friday night. You might think this will be a blowout, but I'll tell you it won't be. It will be tough for Toledo to win, but they're a decent football team this year and I think BSU is overrated. Toledo almost beat Ohio State last week, but failed to convert on 4th down late in the 4th quarter in the 27-22 loss. Toledo has a balanced offense with two QBs, but OSU held them to just 46 yards rushing. If they want to have a shot at knocking off Boise State, they need to have a more powerful rushing attack. Boise State is coming off a bye week after beating Georgia (who is now 0-2). BSU might end up being pretty good, but I'm not ready to buy in just yet. If they blow out Toledo on the road to follow up their win against UGA in Atlanta, I'll start being a believer.

#21 Auburn plays at Clemson, who is 2-0 after walking over Troy and struggling with Wofford. Clemson struggled to stop the Wofford rushing attack, who ran the ball 57 times for 272 yards. They had three rushers with 10+ carries (who all ran for over 50 yards). Auburn should be able to exploit that weakness and have success running the ball. But, which Auburn team will we see? Will it be the team that got outplayed by Utah State but miraculously squeaked out a win or the team that dominated Mississippi State physically? Plus, this is a road game for Auburn. It will probably come down to the wire again.

I'll focus on the Utah/BYU and OU/FSU games later, but here are a few other quick notes.

Washington travels to #11 Nebraska. The two teams met twice last year and split the series. But, this game is in Lincoln, and Washington doesn't stand a chance.

#23 Texas travels to struggling UCLA, who lost at Houston in opening week and struggled with San Jose State last week. If UCLA can combine their offense from Houston with their defense from SJSU, they might be able to upset Texas at home.

Washington State at San Diego State will be a measuring stick for both teams. WSU is leading the nation in scoring offense and is putting up huge numbers throwing the ball without their starting QB.

#22 Arizona State has another test as they travel to Illinois this week. Illinois has looked good against bad competition, but another non-conference win pushing ASU to 3-0 would give them a great start before opening conference play with USC.

Here are the games I want to watch at least some of.

Thursday 6:00 - #3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (ESPN, ESPN3)
Friday 6:00 - #4 Boise State at Toledo (ESPN, ESPN3)
10:00 - #18 West Virginia at Maryland (ESPNU)
10:00 - #21 Auburn at Clemson (ABC)
10:00 - Eastern Michigan at Michigan (BTN)
12:00 - Louisiana-Monroe at #23 TCU (The Mtn)
1:30 - Washington at #11 Nebraska (ESPN, ESPN3)
1:30 - #23 Texas at UCLA (ABC, ESPN3)
4:00 - UCF at Florida International (ESPN3)
4:30 - Washington State at San Diego State (The Mtn)
5:00 - #22 Arizona State at Illinois (BTN)
6:00 - #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State (ABC)
7:15 - Utah at BYU (ESPN2, ESPN3)
8:45 - #6 Stanford at Arizona (ESPN, ESPN3)

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