Not only is this the first Big Ten conference game for #8 Nebraska, it's also a big cross-division matchup with two top ten teams as they travel to #7 Wisconsin. Both teams are 4-0 and they figure to be the only two really good teams in the conference. Nebraska travels to Penn State and #19 Michigan in mid-November and Wisconsin finishes the season at #24 Illinois and vs Penn State. Both teams also play Michigan State and Ohio State, but those teams are both looking to underachieve and they play each other this week as well. Iowa could end up being a contender at the end of the season. But right now, it looks like this will be preview of the first Big Ten championship.
For Nebraska to win this game, they're probably going to need to throw the ball. They do have the 8th ranked rushing offense (272.5 YPG) but their passing offense is ranked 106th (166.5 YPG). They did rush for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington, but Washington doesn't have a great defense like Wisconsin does. Wisconsin only allows 2.8 yards per carry, while Nebraska averages 6.0 yards per carry. Something's got to give there, and whoever wins that battle could end up winning this game.
Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense (532.3 YPG) and 7th in total defense (256.5 YPG). They're 6th in scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and 3rd in scoring defense (8.5 PPG). So there aren't many teams that have been better overall than Wisconsin. They haven't played much competition, though. UNLV is terrible, Oregon State has been awful, Northern Illinois is decent for a MAC team, and South Dakota is an FCS team.
An advantage Nebraska does have is in the return game. RB Ameer Abdullah is 2nd in kickoff returns, averaging 42.5 yards on 8 returns and has 1 touchdown. He's also a good punt returner, but Wisconsin ranks 17th in net punting, so he may not be as big of a factor there.
Night games at Camp Randall Stadium are always tough. The last Wisconsin home loss was to 6-0 Iowa in 2009, and the last home loss at night was to 6-0 Penn State in 2008. The stadium gets loud and rowdy and I have a feeling this could get ugly in the fourth quarter. But if Wisconsin does pull away, watch Abdullah because he'll have some chances for big kickoff returns. I think Wisconsin is just too good and is going to win this game big.
My pick is Wisconsin 41, Nebraska 20.
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